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STATE OF CURRENT GLOBAL
MINERALS AND EXTRACTIVEINDUSTRIES
GLEN MPUFANE
ICEM GLOBAL MINING AND DGJOP OFFICER:
ICEM
Fourth International Mining and Maritime Conference4-7 October 2011 / DURBAN SOUTH AFRICA
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INTRODUCTION.
GLOBALISATION
Globalization has greatly impacted the ability of workers to organize andbargain collectively.
International trade and capital flows have increased, along with foreign directinvestment and cross-border M&A
Transnational corporations, which employ increasing numbers of the world’sworkers, have become the dominant economic actors,
“a focal force in integrating national and international economies in global andregional production networks and in coordinating and controlling these production chains and networks” (Riisgaard, Lone , at http://www.ilo.org/public/english/).
As a result of these changes, the paradigms and patterns of labor relations havealso changed
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The political economy of the extractive industry is constantlyundergoing change.
Consolidation plus super-profits plus resource scarcity in mininghas shifted power from mining consumers to producers.
A trend to greater resource taxation because of the super-profits
The imperatives of climate change and Sustainability
Trend towards increased use of migrant/temporary/overseaslabour
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(INTRO. CONT.)
Influence of China
Influence of India Trends of State Activism
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EXAMPLES OF GOVERNMENT
INTERVENTION AUSTRALIA
BRAZIL
GUINNEE SOUTH AFRICA
VENEZUELA
NAMIBIA
PERU ZIMBABWE
CANADA
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RESOURCE NATIONALISM
TOUGHER WAGE NEGOTIATION
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The mining and metals sector led the global economy to recovery ascommodity prices soared on the back of buoyant demand fromemerging markets.
While it was the financial sector that led the world into a recession, themining and metals sector was leading the world out of the recession(Michael Lynch-Bell, Global Mining & Metals Transactions Leader,Ernst & Young, UK: 2011)
The emerging economies, particularly resource rich developingcountries are changing the rules of the game against the background of a historical shift in mining.
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Distribution of global mine production among
regions, %
Source: Calculations by Raw Materials Group
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Historical Shift of Mininga combination of a large and
growing
demographic profile, rising
incomes, above-averageGDP growth and government-led
policies aimed at
developing infrastructure and
industry
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.
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GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION
OF MINERAL RESERVES
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Mine and Metal Production
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Emerging Economies Dominating Metal/Mining
Production
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According to the BMI special report on frontier mining,
their forecast is that this trend (shift) is set to continue,largely driven by the increase in the GDP of the emerging
economies.
In about 2016, the GDP of the developed economies andthe emerging economies will cross over and the share of
the GDP of emerging economies will overtake that of the
developed economies
This will, accordingly, have a significant impact for the
mining sector from both a demand and supply side
perspective.
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Emerging markets will be the largest drivers of demand
growth for industrial commodities over the forecast period,
and this will have a significant impact on the demand for
services from global mining and extraction companies.
This will be as a result of a combination of a large and
growing demographic profile, rising incomes, above-
average GDP growth and government-led policies aimed at
developing infrastructure and industry
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Emerging markets are forecast to grow by an average 5.5%
per annum out to 2020, whereas, developed countries willlag significantly by 2.2% per annum over the same period.
These high growth rates in emerging markets will be led by
the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India & China) countries, but
frontier markets will also play a key role.
According to the BMI forecast, emerging markets will
account for 50.6% of global GDP by 2016 from 37.8% in
2010 and in the process will surpass that of developingcountries. Moreover, by the end of the forecast period in
2020, emerging markets will account for 56.5% of global
GDP.
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Strong growth in emerging markets will fuel demand forconsumer durables, housing, infrastructure as well as
telecommunication all of which, will in turn stimulate the
mining sector.
For example, Steel and steel-related products account forabout 55% of a light vehicle, Similarly growth in the
infrastructure sector will be driven by India, Indonesia
China and Brazil, which will see average growth of 9.4%,
7.8%, 6.4% and 6.3% respectively. In terms of the power sector, an increase in electricity
generation is forecast as rapid rates of urbanization in
emerging markets put a strain on existing capacity
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Combined, the infrastructure and power sector will provide
a boon to iron ore, steel, copper, zinc and lead as well as
other commodities.
Already emerging markets and particularly China have
dramatically increased their share of consumption of raw
materials, and this will continue to see both local and
international mining companies branch out into frontier
countries in search of large, high-grade deposits.
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MINERALS AS DRIVERS OF DEVELOPMENT
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Uses of the major metals
Aluminium: Transport, packaging, construction, hightension power lines
Copper: Electrical conductors, construction, transport
Gold: Investment, jewellery, electronics
Lead: Batteries, pigments, ammunition, radiation shielding
Nickel: Stainless steels, electroplating
Platinum: Jewellery, catalysts
Silver: Electronics, sterlingware
Tin: Tinplate in packaging, solder, pigments
Zinc: Galvanizing, brass and bronze
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According to data from the World Bureau of Metals
Statistics, in 2000 China accounted for a very small share
of global consumption for a host of metals, but by 2010
China was the single largest consumer of several base
metals, accounting for 35-40% of the global total.
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China in the world iron and steel economy:
per cent of world
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.PROJECTIONS FOR CHINA’S COMMODITY IMPORT
DEMAND UP TO 2020
.
1033015034M cubic
meters
Wood
201 26040.3M tonnesMeat
10360133M tonnesManganese
10600203M tonnesCopper
207 40081011M tonnesCoal
4805026M tonnesSoy
201940186091M tonnesOil
10380710148M tonnesIron Ore
Avg.p.aTotal2020LatestUnitCommodity
2006-2020 % ChangeDemandAnnual
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China’s continued achievement of it’s five year plans
growth targets over the past 30 years, and the likelihood of
the achievement of the current 12
th
five year plan growthtarget makes China a certain bet to continue to be the
driver of the commodity boom
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WORLD’S TOP MINING COMPANIES (BHP Billiton, Vale and Rio Tinto)
The market capitalisation of third place Rio Tinto is double the size of the nextlargest player, China Shenhua, which declined 25% in value during 2010.
BHP Billiton’s market capitalisation further strengthened, putting it clearlyabove the rest.
Price and production increases in iron ore were major drivers of
the growth by the top three.
The total, at US$510bn, comprises no less than 26% of the aggregate US$2trillion market value of the world's biggest 100 mining companies, measuredby value.
Source: Capital IQ.
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The factor most common to the three super groups is iron
ore; the three account for about two-thirds of the world's
lucrative seaborne iron ore market. Vale used to be the
biggest, but in early June 2009, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton
announced an iron ore joint venture for the two companies'
Pilbara, Australia iron ore operations. The value of the full
joint venture, now formalized, is no less than US$116bn
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SEABOURNE IRON MARKET
The global seaborne iron ore market (i.e., iron ore that is exported byocean trade routes to coastal or near coast steel making plants)represents approximately 42% of total iron ore production and totalledapproximately 944 million t in 2009.
Australia (384 million t) and Brazil (266 million t) dominate the exportmarket with just over 68% of total exports in 2009
India (119 million t) and South Africa (44 million t) are also significantcontributors to the seaborne market.
Vale, BHP Billiton Limited and Rio Tinto plc produced 596 million tof iron ore in 2010, representing approximately 63% of the seaborne
market These three companies largely dictate the price of seaborne iron ore
through negotiations with some of the world's largest importersincluding mills in China and Japan
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Iron Ore Trade and Production
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GLENCORE’S INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING
The pricing of Glencore's public offer implies thecommodities trading company would have a market valueof $61 billion or R403.8 billion.
In fact the company's listing is one of London's largest ever
with Glencore set to be the first company in 25 years andonly the third ever to enter the FTSE 100 index on the dayof listing
Glencore's equity makes it slightly bigger than AngloAmerican and puts it among the world's top-five
commodities groups, which also include BHP Billiton, RioTinto and Vale.
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INTEGRATION IN THE MINING AND METAL
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INTEGRATION IN THE MINING AND METAL
EXTRACTIVE RESOURCES INDUSTRIES
Concentration on core competencies – (Outsourcing) – to
integration - horizontal integration ( M&A) and vertical
integration (Supply Chain)
Vertical integration trends have been shaped by an increasein global demand for metals and the growing importance of
securing stable supplies of increasingly scarce resources.
Additional objectives often include gaining greater control
over the price of production inputs and to provide for
future growth prospects.
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CONTINUED
Xstrata
Rio Tinto
Vale
BHP Billiton
Anglo American
Arcelor Metal
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. Vale has taken a 27% stake in the Brazilian steel
production assets owned by ThyssenKrupp CSA. Thisequity investment is combined with an
exclusive iron ore supply agreement, solidifying a domestic buyer for Vale’s Brazilian iron ore.
Vale is also adding a number of bulk iron ore ships to theirin-house fleet
Vale is also involved in downstream vertical integration,which involves huge investments in infrastructure build,
such as roads, ports, etc
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Mergers and Acquisitions
Emerging economies and Frontier Mining countries
Across Asia – Pacific, deal value surged on 2009 levels,targeting gold, coal and steel
In Africa, deals grew 407% as companies from every
region in the world turned to the continent in a bid tosecure future supply
Failed attempted deal by BHP Billiton for Rio Tinto
Failed attempted Xstrata move on Anglo American
Glencore’s Initial Public Offering
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(Continued)
On the back of re - capitalisation and excess capital fromstronger prices, most companies are venturing into
“riskier” regions such as West Africa, South America andAsia-Pacific, especially Papua New Guinea and Mongolia.
Besides the focus on infrastructure support (DownstreamVertical integration), this expansion into emerging and
frontier markets also created a greater focus on sovereignrisk, notably security of tenure and changes or fluctuationsin commodity prices, tax and royalty regimes.
Dramatic escalation in the size of sovereign wealth funds
which by some estimates put it at $3 trillion.
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2010 saw record levels of financing, the revival of IPO and
the return of share buybacks and dividends. (E&Y MA andCapital Raising in Mining and Metals 2010 report)
Total proceeds raised by the sector in 2010 reached$329.5b, a record figure and a 54% on 2009
Australia and Toronto held the highest share of IPOs byvolume, while London recovered from its 2009 obscurity
Emerging exchanges, notably Hong Kong, and Mongolia,with its partnership with the London stock exchange, cameto their own, as globally competitive resource exchanges.
SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
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SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Canada: Xstrata has purchased First Coal for US$153mn. Part of
Xstrata's increasing coal focus.
Chile: Codelco plans to sell US4bn worth of bonds over the next 12months. Codelco plans to develop new projects to increase output.
Peru: Newmont Mining and Buenaventura plan to invest US$4bnin their Conga mine. The mine is expected to produce 580kozpa of gold in 2015.
South Africa: China's Wing Hing plans to purchase South Africangold company Taung Gold for US$580m. One of many Chinesecompanies purchasing assets overseas.
USA: Sutter Gold Mining plans to restart its Mother Lode goldmine. Elevated gold prices have made old mines economicallyviable again.
Source: BMI, Reuters
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M&A IN AFRICA
Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity targeting sub-
Saharan Africa reached an all-time record in 2010.
Thomson Reuters’ '2010 sub-Saharan Africa Investment
Banking Analysis' reports that South Africa was the most
targeted sub-Saharan country.
The country was also the most active issuer of equity, and
issued the top sub-Saharan bond in 2010, worth $1,98-
billion.
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Mining Mergers and Acquisitions 2005 to 2008
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NUMBER, VALUE AND SIZE OF DEALS 2010
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Y/Y
growth
No.
Value
($m)
Av. V
($m)
Med.
V($m
392
38,747
99
8.9
380
66,745
176
5.9
475
56,347
119
5
475
46,182
97
4.4
596
26,350
44
3.1
564
65,430
116
4.8
701
175,713
251
6.2
903
210,848
233
7.2
919
126,884
138
6
1,047
60,035
57
3.2
1,123
113,706
101
5.2
7%
89%
77%
62%
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COMMODITY PRICES TRANSLATE
INTO SUPER PROFITS
In 2010, post the financial crises the Top 40 miningcompanies rebounded with operating cash flows breakingthrough the $100 billion
Higher commodity prices and increased production
contributed favourably to the $51 billion, or 59%, increasein operating cash flow
With this windfall, more than $300 billion worth of capitalprograms, have been announced, of which more than $120
billion was planned for this year, doubling last year'scapital expenditure.
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At $435 billion, revenue exceeded the $400 billion barrier
to reach the highest level ever reported, a 34% increase
over 2009. This has been driven by increases in prices inmajor commodities and a return to growth in production,
illustrating the mining industry’s come-back since the
global financial crisis.
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IMPLICATIONS FOR TRADE
UNION STRUGGLES AND
GLOBAL SOLIDARITY
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The issue of control and the enormous boom in the mining
and metals sector (extractive industries) raises seriousissues for trade unions as to how the benefits of theenormous mineral wealth possessed by many developingcountries can be shared, since the profits from metalmining are largely exported along with minerals
themselves Already governments have staked their claims through
resource nationalism
This is a critical question for countries in which metal
mining makes up the largest share of export
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Dependence on Metal Mining as a Percent of
Total Exports by Country
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Global Solidarity is a function of trade union power.
Building power in the mining sector will require theshifting of global union resources to countries in Asia,Africa and Latin America and consolidating union powerto overcome fragmentation
A more pronounced union organizing strategy to recruit
and organize both regular and contract workers.
Building Capacity in Campaigns and Joint action aroundthe value chain
Mining and Maritime Initiative must be rooted on the
ground
STRIKES COULD THREATEN GLOBAL COPPER &
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STRIKES COULD THREATEN GLOBAL COPPER &PLATINUM SUPPLIES
According to the BMI’s Global Mining Report, the elevation in metalsprices would result in greater conflict between companies and theirworkers.
In addition to South Africa, it is expect that the greatest industrialaction would occur where unions are most powerful and thus Australia,Peru, Chile and Mexico were highlighted as hotspots for industrialaction.
These countries account for 45% of global copper output and thussustained industrial action could be price supportive. Conversely,countries where union participation and influence is weak, notably inBrazil and much of Africa the potential for strikes is far lower.
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THANK YOU
Fourth International Mining and Maritime Conference4-7 October 2011 / DURBAN SOUTH AFRICA
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