Geosciences and the future of Planet Earth – a hydrological
perspective
Kate Heal
School of GeoSciences
The University of [email protected]
Water is essential for life• Water and health
– 1.8 million deaths annually from diarrhoeal disease, mainly <5 years
• Water and food– 70% available water used for irrigation
• Water as a hazard– 15% of deaths in natural disasters in floods
• Water and energy– 19% of electricity produced by hydropower– Hydropower development could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 13%
• Increasing pressures on water resources
www.dunalastair.co.uk/images/700/Pitlochry-Dam.jpg
Therefore it should be easy for hydrologists to contribute to service of mankind…
Why we need hydrologists• Estimate surface and groundwater availability• Predict effects of land use and climate changes on water
quantity and quality• Assess water requirements of ecosystem services• Estimate frequency of occurrence and magnitude of
floods and droughts
But science required to address these questions• Measurement of hydrological processes and influences on them• Integrating data and models at different scales• Development of novel technologies and techniques in measurement
and modelling
Images: S. Hubbard
So why do we not hear much about hydrologists?• Society does not know what hydrology is• Hydrologists do not know what hydrology is• Intersection of “Hydrology” and “Water
Resource Management”• Hydrology rarely a separate subject at
school or university – Embedded within Engineering, Geography,
Forestry• Water is often politicised
– Human right to safe water and sanitation (UN General Assembly July 2010)
– UN Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of Shared Watercourses (1997) still not ratified
Multi-disciplinary nature of hydrology
(Acknowledgment: Harouna Karambiri)
The international water scene is flooded …• Many different actors with
different aims– UNESCO
• World Water Assessment Programme• International Hydrology Programme
– World Water Council– International Water Association– IAHS
• Many different venues– World Water Forum– Stockholm World Water Week– Singapore International Water Week
What should be the role of IUGG and IAHS?• Emphasise science and
scientists• Emphasise multi-
disciplinarity and interaction between associations
• Emphasise internationalism (cf. AGU), especially potential to engage with developing country scientists
What IAHS is doing: PUB• Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) decade 2003-2012• www.iahs-pub.org• Primary aim of reducing uncertainty in hydrological predictions• Grass-roots movement, has evolved over time• Structure
– 4 biennia: initiation, growth, taking stock, consolidation– 8 science themes and working groups have developed which span 2 or
more themes– Science Steering Committee includes Theme leaders and young
hydrologists
• Will produce Benchmark Report “Runoff prediction in ungauged basins” to address the science question: How and how well can we estimate runoff characteristics in the absence of at-site runoff data?
What IAHS is doing: PUC• Next decade…Predictions under
Change (PUC): Water, Earth and Biota in the Anthropocene research agenda (Murugesu Sivapalan)– See Wagener et al. (2010) WRR 46,
W05301
• Future research agenda– Humans part of the hydrologic
system
Sivapalan (Ed.) Predictions under Change: Water, Earth and Biota in the Anthropocene, Draft, 18 April 2011
Application of the new framework to propose research to predict hydrological responses to watershed disturbance
Sivapalan (Ed.) Predictions under Change: Water, Earth and Biota in the Anthropocene, Draft, 18 April 2011
Enhancing the role of IUGG and IAHS• Lobby for funding for Geosciences
research and training• Encourage multi-disciplinarity and
interaction between Associations• Increase accessibility of meetings
and scientists to policy makers and the public– “Solutions from Students” Poster
competition at IUGG 2011– EGU outreach programme
• Encourage young scientists– Already funding towards meeting
participation– Masterclasses and mentoring (e.g. EGU,
ICGW)
Challenges to the IUGG and IAHS in realising service to mankind
• Communication of uncertainty to society and policy makers
• Different time-scales of policy making and science (short-term and reactive vs. long-term)
• Scientific career progression metrics do not incentivise engagement – though changing
• More training in science communication• Funding for outreach, communication and marketing
– No fee for IAHS• Strength: distinctive feature, accessibility• Weakness: limits resources for activities
Need to understand policy makersHydrologist Land-water planner
School of thought
IAHS, AGU, EGUJ. Hydrol., Water Resour. Res., Hydrol. Processes
IWA, AWWAWater Research, J. Water Policy, J. Water Resources Development
Training Specialist training, hydrological theory, modelling, GIS
In situ problem solving and management
Key skills Advanced modelling, telemetry, GPS, GIS, remote sensing, DSS
Regulatory and legislative understanding, knowledge of local problems
Contribution to river basin management
Constantly building models and acquiring data of little use to the land use planner
Asking poorly posed questions; refusal to accept “we do not know exactly” as a true answer
(Quinn et al., 2004)
How to increase interaction between scientists and policy makers
• Demonstrate gains from policy based on good science• Emphasise financial aspects• Understand policy making processes• More effective communication• Policy maker involvement in research• Demonstration sites• Training and capacity building
Develop appropriate communication toolsCatchm ent Scale M eta M odels
(M I R ), G I S - produce riskindicators
informdecisionmaking
‘political w ill’message +
the mandatebest farm ing
practice
inform ingend users
change inlocal land use
scale anduncertainty
Catchm ent ScaleStrategic Plann ing -use risk indicatorsM o n ito rin g s ite : flo w + w ate r q u a lity
Education Too ls(TopM anage)
StakeholderW orkshops
Physically-basedM odels (EPI C )
D ecisionSupport
Tools(DSM )
ResearchCatchment
(Quinn et al., 2004)
Q1 Total P loadingQ2 Type of P appliedQ3 S ludge farmyard manure and fertiliser management Q4 Crop and Tillage regime Q5 Current Soil P index
,
Answer
high
zero, very low, low, medium,
very h igh
Fertiliserapplication and soil management
Flow connectivity
Result
Risk loss assessm ent for P load ing and so il m anagem ent
Translate scientific knowledge into risk assessment matrices
Darker shading indicates high risk
Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix for a field/fields (Hewett et al., 2004)
Low-medium risk High risk
Conclusions• IUGG and IAHS
– Need to demonstrate IMPACT of Geosciences to policy makers
– Lobbying for funding for Geosciences measurement, research and training
– More public and policy maker engagement
• Grass-roots scientific initiatives important
• Individual responsibility of scientists– Engage with policy makers/society
wherever possible– Make research results more accessible
(Acknowledgment: Harouna Karambiri)
And finally…
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