Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 1
GENERAL JODI & OIL DATA RELATED
ISSUES
Pantelis Christodoulides Statistician Data Services Department
OPEC
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 2
OUTLINE
Data essential for oil market
Issues of data collection
Legal framework for oil statistics compilation/resources
Confidentiality of oil statistics
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 3
OUTLINE
Data essential for oil market
Issues of data collection
Legal framework for oil statistics compilation/resources
Confidentiality of oil statistics
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 4
DATA ESSENTIAL FOR OIL MARKET
Why is good data essential for oil market ?Why is good data essential for oil market ?
Support sound decision making
Encourage investments
Reduce market volatility
Facilitate improved short-term forecasts
Ensure oil market stability
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 5
Economic forecast
World oil demand
Non-OPEC supply
Inventories
Refinery utilization and margins
Oil and product prices
OPECOPEC’’s production decisions s production decisions –– significant impact significant impact on the oil marketon the oil market
Decisions based on Decisions based on
DATA ESSENTIAL FOR OIL MARKET
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 6
DATA ESSENTIAL FOR OIL MARKET
Challenges in assessing oil dataChallenges in assessing oil data
Unreliable - poor quality data
Unavailability of certain data
Revision of historical data
Uncertainty about market outlook
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 7
DATA ESSENTIAL FOR OIL MARKET
Market FundamentalsMarket Fundamentals
DEMAND
NON-OPEC SUPPLYOPEC PRODUCTION
Expectation of fundamentals is a tool to predict inventory movements
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 8
Price Pressure
Psychology (Geopolitical Tension, etc.)
Manipulation (Speculators)
Market Fundamentals
(DATA)
Stock Change
Expectation of inventory movements, among other factors, drives the direction of crude oil prices..
Oil Price & Market FundamentalsOil Price & Market Fundamentals
DATA ESSENTIAL FOR OIL MARKET
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 9
DATA ESSENTIAL FOR OIL MARKET
R2 = 0.7
01020304050607080
255 270 285 300 315 330 345 360
1994 - 2003 2004 2005 2006 Linear (1994 - 2003)
WTI versus US commercial crude stocksWTI versus US commercial crude stocks
million barrels
US$/Barrel
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 10
DATA ESSENTIAL FOR OIL MARKET
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06
source 1 source 2
Continued revisions of historical oil demand 2003Continued revisions of historical oil demand 2003
world oil demand in 2003: 79.2 mb/d
million barrels per day
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 11
DATA ESSENTIAL FOR OIL MARKET
Consumer-producer dialogue dates back to the 1980’s
Common interest of producers and consumersStable oil marketReliable and transparent oil data
JODI
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 12
JODI launched in 2001 by six organizations - OPEC, APEC, Eurostat, IEA, OLADE and UNSD
Response to a directive from Ministers at the 7th
International Energy Forum (IEF) Nov. 2000, who saw the need for an initiative that would enhance “cooperation among relevant international organizations, as well as participating countries, in improving timely access to energy data”
Objective of JODIObjective of JODI
DATA ESSENTIAL FOR OIL MARKET
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 13
OUTLINE
Data essential for oil market
Issues of data collection
Legal framework for oil statistics compilation/resources
Confidentiality of oil statistics
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 14
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Aspects of data qualityAspects of data quality
Sustainability/submission
Timeliness
Completeness/coverage
Accuracy
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 15
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Aspects of data qualityAspects of data quality
Sustainability/submission
Timeliness
Completeness/coverage
Accuracy
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 16
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
SustainabilitySustainability
Number of submissions within period - 6, 12 months
Percentages
Ratings “good”, “fair”, “less reliable”
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 17
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Sustainability OPEC 2005Sustainability OPEC 2005
Country JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
11 92%
83%
100%
100%
67%
100%
100%
100%
100%
10 X X X X 4 33%
OPEC 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 6 8 11 88%
11
12
12
8
12
12
12
12
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
9 X X X X X X X X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
1 X X X X
2 X X X X
3 X X X X
4 X X X X
5 X X X X
6 X X X X
7 X X X X
8 X X X X
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 18
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Sustainability OPEC 2002 Sustainability OPEC 2002 -- 20052005
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 19
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Sustainability ratingsSustainability ratings
Over period of 6 months
Good 6 timely submissions
Fair 4 or 5 timely submissions
Less reliable less than 4 timely submissions
☺
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 20
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Sustainability ratings OPEC Jul05 Sustainability ratings OPEC Jul05 –– Dec05Dec05
Country 1 5
Country 2 5
Country 3 5
Country 4 6 ☺
Country 5 2
Country 6 6 ☺
Country 7 5
Country 8 6 ☺
Country 9 6 ☺
Country 10 0
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 21
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Aspects of data qualityAspects of data quality
Sustainability/submission
Timeliness
Completeness/coverage
Accuracy
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 22
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
TimelinessTimeliness
Prior deadline – 2 months
Data for June 2006 September 1 2006
Number of timely submissions within period -6, 12 months
Percentages
Ratings “good”, “fair”, “less timely”
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 23
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Timeliness OPEC 2005Timeliness OPEC 2005
Country JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
5 42%
83%
67%
92%
42%
0%
92%
100%
25%
10 X X X X 0 0%
OPEC 5 5 5 5 6 8 7 5 6 5 4 4 7 54%
10
8
11
5
0
11
12
3
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
9 X X X X X X X X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
1 X X X X
2 X X X X
3 X X X X
4 X X X X
5 X X X X
6 X X X X
7 X X X X
8 X X X X
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 24
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Timeliness OPEC 2002 Timeliness OPEC 2002 -- 20052005
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2002 2003 2004 2005
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 25
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Timeliness ratingsTimeliness ratings
Over period of 6 months
Good 6 timely submissions
Fair 4 or 5 timely submissions
Less timely less than 4 timely submissions
☺
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 26
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Timeliness ratings OPEC Jul05 Timeliness ratings OPEC Jul05 –– Dec05Dec05
Country 1 2
Country 2 4
Country 3 5
Country 4 6 ☺
Country 5 0
Country 6 0
Country 7 5
Country 8 6 ☺
Country 9 2
Country 10 0
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 27
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Aspects of data qualityAspects of data quality
Sustainability/submission
Timeliness
Completeness/coverage
Accuracy
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 28
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
CompletenessCompleteness
Number of expected data points out of max 42
Percentages
Ratings “good”, “fair”, “less reliable”
Qualitative approaches
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 29
Country:Country:Month:Month: Unit:Unit:
Production
Imports
Exports
Closing Change
Refinery Intake
Crude Oil
Stocks
Petroleum Products
LPG Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Total Oil
Refinery Output
Imports
Exports
Closing Change
Demand
Stocks
42 data points 42 data points
JODI questionnaireJODI questionnaire
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 30
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Completeness OPECCompleteness OPEC
PROD TRADE STCLO STCHG REFINTREFOUTDEMAND
1 o
2 X o o
3 X X
4 X
5 X X
6
7 X
8
9 X X
10
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 31
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Completeness ratingsCompleteness ratings
Over period of 6 months
Good 90% of data given
Fair 60% - 90% of data given
Less reliable less than 60% of data given
☺
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 32
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Completeness ratings OPEC Jul05 Completeness ratings OPEC Jul05 –– Dec05Dec05
Country 1 100% ☺
Country 2 71%
Country 3 80%
Country 4 100% ☺
Country 5 80%
Country 6 80%
Country 7 100% ☺
Country 8 100% ☺
Country 9 80%
Country 10 100% ☺
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 33
Country Submission Timeliness Completeness Submission Timeliness Completeness
1 5 2 100% ☺
2 5 4 71%
3 5 5 80%
4 6 6 100% ☺ ☺ ☺
5 2 0 80%
6 6 0 80% ☺
7 5 5 100% ☺
8 6 6 100% ☺ ☺ ☺
9 6 2 80% ☺
10 0 0 100% ☺
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Submission Timeliness Completeness Submission Timeliness Completeness --OPECOPEC
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 34
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Aspects of data qualityAspects of data quality
Sustainability/submission
Timeliness
Completeness/coverage
Accuracy
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 35
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
AccuracyAccuracy
Difficult to measure – benchmark needed
Variations across data flows
Impossible to provide one rating for a country
Only indications of accuracy
Verification methods – balance, internal consistency, time series, visual checks
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 36
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– balance checksbalance checks
Calculated supply ~ reported demand
Calculated supply = production + imports –exports – stock changes
Data checks for all flows – deviation +/- 5%
Balance check possible if all flows available
Larger deviation not always bad data quality
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 37
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– balance checks: Example gasolinebalance checks: Example gasoline
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan-0
3
Mar-0
3
May-0
3
Jul-0
3
Sep
-03
No
v-03
Jan-0
4
Mar-0
4
May-0
4
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
No
v-04
Jan-0
5
Mar-0
5
May-0
5
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
No
v-05
calc supply demand
1000 barrels per day
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 38
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– balance checks: Example gasolinebalance checks: Example gasoline
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan-0
3
Mar-0
3
May-0
3
Jul-0
3
Sep
-03
No
v-03
Jan-0
4
Mar-0
4
May-0
4
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
No
v-04
Jan-0
5
Mar-0
5
May-0
5
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
No
v-05
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 39
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– balance checks: Example total productsbalance checks: Example total products
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
Jan-0
2M
ar-02
May-0
2Ju
l-02
Sep
-02
No
v-02
Jan-0
3M
ar-03
May-0
3Ju
l-03
Sep
-03
No
v-03
Jan-0
4M
ar-04
May-0
4Ju
l-04
Sep
-04
No
v-04
Jan-0
5M
ar-05
May-0
5Ju
l-05
Sep
-05
No
v-05
Jan-0
6
LPG - export/gas plant
1000 barrels per day
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 40
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– internal consistency checksinternal consistency checks
Fuel balance: total oil ≥ LPG + gasoline + kerosene + G/D oil + fuel oil
stock change = stock(M-1) – stock(M-2)
Deviation ~ +/- 5%
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 41
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Country:Country:Month:Month: Unit:Unit:
Petroleum Products
LPG Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Total Oil
Refinery Output
Imports
Exports
Closing Change
Demand
Stocks
other products other products
Production
Imports
Exports
Closing Change
Refinery Intake
Crude Oil
Stocks
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 42
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– internal consistency: Example fuel internal consistency: Example fuel balance in oil demandbalance in oil demand
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
Jan-0
3
Mar-0
3
May-0
3
Jul-0
3
Sep
-03
Nov-0
3
Jan-0
4
Mar-0
4
May-0
4
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
Nov-0
4
Jan-0
5
Mar-0
5
May-0
5
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
Nov-0
5
reported total oil sum of products
1000 barrels per day
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 43
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– internal consistency: Example stock internal consistency: Example stock checkschecks
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
-8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000
calculated stock change
reported stock change
1000 barrels
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 44
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– time series checks/growth ratestime series checks/growth rates
Useful for production stocks and demand
Comparison latest month data to previous month/last year
Growth rates remain stable
Seasonality patterns should be considered
Deviation ~ +/- 5%
Larger deviation not always bad data quality
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 45
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– time series check: Example oil demandtime series check: Example oil demand
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
Jan-0
3
Mar-0
3
May-0
3
Jul-0
3
Sep
-03
No
v-03
Jan-0
4
Mar-0
4
May-0
4
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
No
v-04
Jan-0
5
Mar-0
5
May-0
5
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
No
v-05
1000 barrels per day
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 46
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– time series check: Example oil demandtime series check: Example oil demand
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan-0
3
Mar-0
3
May-0
3
Jul-0
3
Sep
-03
No
v-03
Jan-0
4
Mar-0
4
May-0
4
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
No
v-04
Jan-0
5
Mar-0
5
May-0
5
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
No
v-05
changes from last year
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 47
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
-15%-10%-5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%
Jan-0
3
Mar-0
3
May-0
3
Jul-0
3
Sep
-03
No
v-03
Jan-0
4
Mar-0
4
May-0
4
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
No
v-04
Jan-0
5
Mar-0
5
May-0
5
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
No
v-05
Accuracy Accuracy –– time series check: Example oil demandtime series check: Example oil demand
changes from last month
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 48
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– time series check: Example oil demandtime series check: Example oil demand
-15%-10%-5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%
Jan
-03
Ma
r-03
Ma
y-0
3
Jul-0
3
Se
p-0
3
No
v-0
3
Jan
-04
Ma
r-04
Ma
y-0
4
Jul-0
4
Se
p-0
4
No
v-0
4
Jan
-05
Ma
r-05
Ma
y-0
5
Jul-0
5
Se
p-0
5
No
v-0
5
changes from last month changes from last year
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 49
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– visual checksvisual checks
Graphical representation of data
Detection of outliers
For all flows except stock changes
Easy and fast method but
Outliers often not easy to detect
Outliers do not always imply bad data quality
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 50
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
Accuracy Accuracy –– visual check: Example oil productionvisual check: Example oil production
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
Jan-0
2
Mar-0
2
May-0
2
Jul-0
2
Sep
-02
No
v-02
Jan-0
3
Mar-0
3
May-0
3
Jul-0
3
Sep
-03
No
v-03
Jan-0
4
Mar-0
4
May-0
4
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
No
v-04
Jan-0
5
Mar-0
5
May-0
5
1000 barrels per day
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 51
ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION
050
100150200
250300
350400
Jan-0
2M
ar-02
May-0
2Ju
l-02
Sep
-02
No
v-02
Jan-0
3
Mar-0
3M
ay-03
Jul-0
3S
ep-0
3N
ov-0
3
Jan-0
4M
ar-04
May-0
4Ju
l-04
Sep
-04
No
v-04
Jan-0
5
Mar-0
5M
ay-05
Jul-0
5S
ep-0
5N
ov-0
5
FOL GAS GDO KRO LPG TOT
Accuracy Accuracy –– visual check: Example refinery outputvisual check: Example refinery output
1000 barrels per day
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 52
OUTLINE
Data essential for oil market
Issues of data collection
Legal framework for oil statistics compilation/resources
Confidentiality of oil statistics
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 53
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
Most countries have legal framework covering oil Most countries have legal framework covering oil statistics compilationstatistics compilation
Legal status of customs records
Legal status of other sources
Oil upstream and downstream flows
All JODI flows covered
Resources: National statistics office, DOE, NOCs, etc.
Examples: Philippines, Norway, Cyprus
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 54
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
PhilippinesPhilippines
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 55
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
Example: PhilippinesExample: Philippines
Downstream oil industry deregulation act of 1988 liberalizes downstream oil industry
Law/IPRS monitors price, quality, refining and marketing of petroleum products
IPRS mandates monitoring of industry supply/demand and inventory
Entities engaged in all upstream activities are registered by the DOE
Downstream petroleum statistics – sourced directly from participants in industry
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 56
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
Example: Philippines downstream sectorExample: Philippines downstream sector
Tank Truck
Tank Truck Tankers/Barges
Retail Outlet
Refinery
Depot/Terminal
White Oil Pipeline Black Oil Pipeline
Product Imports Product Exports
Refinery Storage
Crude Imports
LPG Retail
Freeports/Import
Terminals
Industrial Consumer /End User
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 57
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
Example: PhilippinesExample: Philippines
Downstream data reports by rule II – section 7 of IPR
Reports include imports/exports of crude and products, refinery production, inventories etc.
Monthly and annual reportorial requirements
Upstream data covered by oil exploration and development act of 1972
Penalties for late or not submission of data
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 58
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
Example: PhilippinesExample: Philippines
Philippine DOE in collaboration with
National statistics office (household energy consumption survey)
Petroleum institute of the Philippines
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 59
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
Example: PhilippinesExample: Philippines
Processing/entering of data manually (excel sheets)
No database available
In planning: Online submission reports
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 60
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
NorwayNorway
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 61
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
Example: NorwayExample: Norway
Statistics act covers all energy statistics and oil
National statistical office responsible for energy statistics and oil
Energy statistics as sectorial similar to industrial, trade or agricultural statistics
Compiling oil and gas data on production trade, stocks, refinery intake/output, demand etc. covered by legislation
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 62
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
Example: NorwayExample: Norway
Statistics act does not cover inland consumption of petroleum products
National statistical office produces these statistics on behalf of industry
Sources of data: Norwegian petroleum directorate, retail companies and refineries, customs
Monthly reports
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 63
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
Example: NorwayExample: Norway
Survey for inland consumption of petroleum products
Production, export and stocks for crude, NGL and natural gas from NPD
Import export data collected by the customs
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 64
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
Example: NorwayExample: Norway
Manual data entry with extensive use of formulas in excel sheets
Database for inland consumption of products only
Other data kept in original files
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 65
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
CyprusCyprus
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 66
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
Example: CyprusExample: Cyprus
No specific legislation underpinning monthly oil data collection
Statistics law no. 15(I) of 2000 governs official statistics in general
No production of oil – Cyprus petroleum refinery stopped in 2004 and is only a terminal
Monthly imports data from customs and intrastatreturns
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 67
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES
Example: CyprusExample: Cyprus
Petroleum companies provide data on sales and stocks. All petroleum companies are required to report
Data for heavy fuel oil collected from the electricity authority of Cyprus
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 68
OUTLINE
Data essential for oil market
Issues of data collection
Legal framework for oil statistics compilation/resources
Confidentiality of oil statistics
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 69
CONFIDENTIALITY OF OIL STATISTICS
Reasons for confidentiality: Market Reasons for confidentiality: Market fundamental and non fundamental issuesfundamental and non fundamental issues
Downstream flows such as stocks and stock change, petroleum product demand
Upstream information (crude production)
Other energy data of sensitive nature such as production of nuclear energy
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 70
CONFIDENTIALITY OF OIL STATISTICS
Example: Future spread versus PADD II crude stocksExample: Future spread versus PADD II crude stocks
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
1994-2003 2004 2005 Linear (1994-2003)
million barrels
FM1 – FM2 (US$)
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 71
CONFIDENTIALITY OF OIL STATISTICS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
less or equal 20 21-22 23-24 bigger or equal 25
Example: Range of crude cover versus WTIExample: Range of crude cover versus WTI
WTI (US$/b)
days of forward cover
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