Download - Future of Social Games

Transcript
Page 1: Future of Social Games

Future of social

games BrowserGamesForum 2011

Kappuru

Page 2: Future of Social Games

Jmaz Photo

Page 3: Future of Social Games

MRBill

Page 4: Future of Social Games

Lies

Damn lies

Statistics

Predictions Xurble

Page 5: Future of Social Games

Social games 2008-2010

#failed

Console racing games 2004-2008 #flatout

Cross promo 150 million MAU #rebelalliance

Stevendepolo

Page 6: Future of Social Games

money

!"#$%&'(%)*+'',$&&')%-*'%'&".'"/''

AMagill

Page 7: Future of Social Games

Global SNS Gaming Market (US$ in Billions)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0122' 0120' 0123' 0124' 0125'

$9.0B

$3.8B

24% CAGR

Advertising

Virtual goods

Source: Lazard Capital Markets

“Facebook is roughly half of this”

Page 8: Future of Social Games

ARPU will go up a lot Sh4rp_i Kevin Dooley

Page 9: Future of Social Games

ARPU comparison Adjusted for per capita income

Source: Lazard Capital Markets and company reports

Page 10: Future of Social Games

But it will get very expensive Zhent_

Page 11: Future of Social Games

User acquisition

Content

1'165'2'

265'0'

065'3'

365'4'

465'5'

72821' 70821' 73821' 74821' 72822' 70822'

9:;'

9:9'

<!'3183='>*%?+'

Social media advertising 4x in <5 years ! huge increase in competition & prices

Yes, a symphony orchestra soundtrack Soon: 3D? Cloud Gaming?

Page 12: Future of Social Games

Competition

Operations

A 24% CAGR market will attract late entrants

Mobile & Social convergence “Pay to play”

Developer & operations talent is scarce and fought over

Metrics, predictives, other operative systems are complex & expensive

Page 13: Future of Social Games

Publishing becomes typical

partners ?

Page 14: Future of Social Games

The cycle A new platform is born ! Indies run wild ! “HOT HOT HOT!”

Platform becomes successful

Everybody wants in, VCs throw in tons of money

Costs go up, skills become more specialized, success isn’t easy

Winners emerge, market consolidates

VCs bow out (“market’s done”)

Costs are up, distribution is hard, money is scarce

! Publishers enter the market But it is hard to publish a live game. Expect plenty of failures on the way

Guille

Page 15: Future of Social Games

Self-publishers will band together

Page 16: Future of Social Games

Economies of Scale

Pick one: Succeed together

Go solo, sink alone? Work for hire

Exit the market

Cross promote Retain users

Favorable terms

Robert Nilsson

Page 17: Future of Social Games

Interest graph

Social graph meets

Shaniber

Page 18: Future of Social Games
Page 19: Future of Social Games

Mobage, Gree, Xbox Live on top of Facebook? Avatars vs. real identity?

Page 20: Future of Social Games

Real Social?

Anirudh Kouhl

Page 21: Future of Social Games

?This could go either way

YES! •  Higher ARPU •  More engaging •  Better retention •  PvP makes for great

monetization •  Opportunity for browser

game makers?

NO! •  Much harder to create •  Mini-MMOs worth the

investment? •  Do users on Facebook

really care? •  Real people are messy •  Does a soccer mom

tolerate being griefed?

Page 22: Future of Social Games

Wider variety

Page 23: Future of Social Games

The drivers of variety

More HC •  Tech: Flash 3D, game

streaming

•  Mid-core makes more money

•  “Get away from Zynga”

•  Audience appetite for mid-core, 200M players

•  Lots of overlap between console & social gamers

More casual •  Core FB audience looks for

bite sized diversions

•  Are social games getting a bit too complex for the core FB audience?

•  “Just copy Nintendo” Where’s Brain Training?

•  “Just copy Big Fish” ! look at Gardens of Time

Lucy Nieto

Page 24: Future of Social Games

Social, mobile, Mobile social… It’s all the same

Page 25: Future of Social Games

Identical audience, games, monetization

HTML5 + WebGL everywhere

Multi-screen games/IP

Facebook wins app discovery game for mobile

Google+ embedded into Android (already)

Need to play in social & mobile to be a true winner

Lucy Nieto

Page 26: Future of Social Games

Zynga vs. Nexon vs. Gree vs. DeNA vs. late entrants

Battle of the

giants

Page 27: Future of Social Games

Mobile gaming

SNS gaming

Online gaming

Console

Page 28: Future of Social Games

Bring your popcorn, it’s going to be epic

Public companies with $ billions in war chests

Grudge match between DeNA & Gree

Zynga: “win mobile at any cost”

Core publishers can’t ignore stagnant revenue

vs. >20% CAGR ScypaxPictures

Page 29: Future of Social Games

Awesome time to be in games!

Kristina Alexanderson

Page 30: Future of Social Games

[email protected]

@jussil

Kristina Alexanderson