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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd !

The  Future  of  Trade  

Since 1980, global trade has grown at twice the rate of production, but what about the next 30 years ?!

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Wild Cards

Complexity and scale create risks

Title Text

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Trade strategies often overtaken by (reactions to) events

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World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting

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Trade economics

WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

US  GDP  1980-­‐2013    (%,constant  prices)  

EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013    (%,constant  prices)  

Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  

$3.4  trillion    !

$2.4  trillion    !

Reserves  

>40%  World  GDP  in  Asia  by  2015�IMF  -­‐  adjusted  for  Purchasing  Power  Parity  �50%  populaUon  in  India  under  25  years  old

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!World !GDP % !

over 500! years

“South to South” Trade will grow !

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Expect huge growth in component trade

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Share of total trade in 2011

Watch Africa and Latin America

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Real GDP and Trade Projections to 2030 - growth

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Trade demographics

300 million move to cities in China 475 million to cities in Africa !

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2030

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Land-locked nations 40% less trade ! Sea trade will impact future cities!Landlocked nations lose 40% growth!

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Trade logistics

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Future  of  GlobalisaUon  and  Scale

 11%  wage  inflaUon  a  year  in  China  plus  currency  risks  

Nearshoring    Boom  

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Manufacturing  in  Mexico    

will  grow  rapidly  for  US  market  

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Retail Trade

In  many  EU  naUons,  up  to  70%  of  retail  spending  is  in  <8  companies

e-­‐commerce  $1.5  trillion  2014                        12%  all  UK  retail

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Most online sales using

mobile in UK !

Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU

1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com  items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)

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Radical Trade

$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism

Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs

More oil produced than Saudi by 2020 !

200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years

Germany  Power  Surplus

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•In  June  2013  electricity  prices  became  negaUve  -­‐EU150  /  MWhr

30% EU trucks run empty

150kms by road can cost more than 10,000kms by sea

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1 week extra shipping time reduces trade by 7-26% !

20% additional costs in low income !v middle income countries

$226bn on Mexico rail, road, ports since 2006 SUPER HUBS

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Customs / border delays - can we eliminate 10% costs ?!

Internet of Things

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         Dr Patrick Dixon

FUTURE  OF  TRADE  globalchange.com  

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