Future energy scenario of the world
Presentation By :
Hira Shafiq 1763
Fiza Waheed 1783
Humaira Jamil 1765
Asma Sattar 1774
Energy scenario
Alternative images of how the future might unfold and are an appropriate tool with which to analyze how driving forces may influence future emission outcomes and to assess the associated uncertainties
Top Scenarios
• Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 and beyond, Energy Data Center, WEC
• World Energy Outlook 2004 (to be published on October 26, 2004)
• International Energy Agency
• International Energy Outlook 2004, EIA, US Department of Energy
• Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050 Shell Scenarios
• World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook 2030, EC
Past
•Use natural form of energy• Wood used as fire•Then fossil fuel start form• Transportation industry • Domestic purpose•Other energy production•Nuclear power, hydral power etc
Fossil
World energy consumption from 1820 to 2000
Present condition
• Depleted non renewable resources• Problem of sustainable production• Problem of environmental pollution• Climate change
Energy demand and emissions have doubled in the past 40 years
Effect of fossil fuel burning
Effect of fossil fuel
Due fossil fuel burning human being are suffering from different diseases• Asthma• Lung infection• Respiratory disease• cancer
Future
• next few decades “OR” larger temporal scale of centuries
• Maximum sustainable yield
harvest rate renewable rate• prefer renewable resources or alternative
of a common resource • Promote reuse and recycling
Three hard truths about energy supply
In our future and also now a days
1) Change in energy use
2) struggle to keep rate
3) Environmental stresses
Change in energy use
• Demand pressures will stimulate more efficiency in energy use
Efficient transport Efficient industry Efficient buildings Efficient appliances
Efficient transport
• Biodiesel engine• hydrogen fuel or
electrical motors
Electric vehicles need to come of age
© OECD/IEA 2012
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
50
100
150
200FCEV
Electricity
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
Diesel
Gasoline
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Glo
bal p
asse
nger
LDV
sal
es (m
illio
n)
Efficient industry
• Good insulation• Efficient motors• Try to build their
own energy units
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000Other industries
Chemicals and pe-trochemicals
Aluminium
Pulp and paper
Iron and steel
Cement
2 DS
Industry must become more efficient
© OECD/IEA 2012
Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.
GtC
O2
Efficient buildings
• Use natural heating • Insulating system must be good• Green roofs• More windows• Use shadow plants
Efficient appliances
• Energy savers • Solar streets lights• Small heating units • Efficient Aluminum
sheets on globs
struggle to keep rate
• In 2015 -25• growth rate not equals to
demand rate• Alternative resources use • Mostly biological(Less env.
Impacts )• For a short time economic
shock( developing countries)
Environmental stresses
• If it possible to maintain current share of fossil fuel then pollution increases
• More diseases • Many sensitive
Ecosystem destroy
• World population has more than doubled since 1950 and is set to increase by 40% by 2050
• . Population and GDP will grow strongly in non-OECD countries and China and India are just starting their journey on the energy ladder.
population range
Climbing in energy ladder
Preparing for future
• governments and companies are positioning for longer-term alternatives
• new infrastructures build • CSS (carbon dioxide capture and storage )• older inefficient ones need to be
decommissioned.
• Awareness in public sectors is more• Laws for environment. Degradations• Strike rules on fossil fuel use and
other degrading energy units
Energy Technology Perspectives
• The 6°C Scenario (6DS• The 4°C Scenario (4DS)• The 2°C Scenario (2DS)
The 6°C Scenario (6DS)
By 2050, energy use almost doubles (compared with 2009) and total GHG emissions rise even more.
In the absence of efforts to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, average global temperature rise is projected to be at least 6°C in the long term.
The 6DS is broadly consistent with the World Energy Outlook Current Policy Scenario through 2035.
The 4°C Scenario (4DS)
• recent pledges made by countries to limit emissions
• limit emissions and step up efforts to improve energy efficiency.
• Projecting a long-term temperature rise of 4°C.• an ambitious scenario that requires significant
changes in policy and technologies.• capping the temperature increase at 4°C
requires significant additional cuts in emissions in the period after 2050.
The 2°C Scenario (2DS)
• This is a very aggressive target.• 80% chance of limiting average global
temperature increase to 2°C.• cutting energy-related CO2 emissions
by more than half in 2050 (compared with 2009).
• the goal can only be achieved provided that CO2 and GHG emissions in non-energy sectors are also reduced.
Comparison
Four broad energy scenarios
1. Techno-explosion
2. Techno-stability
3. Energy descent
4. Collapse
Techno-explosion: depends on new, large and
concentrated energy sources allows the continual growth in
material wealth generally associated with space
travel to colonize other planets.
Techno-stability
depends on a seem less conversion from material growth based on depleting energy
to a steady state in consumption of resources
and population all based on novel use of renewable
energies
and technologies
ENERGY DESCENT
a reduction of economic activity, complexity and population
reason is depletion of fossil fuels less consumption of energy and
resources importance of biological resources
like fossil fuelsForests will regain their traditional
status as symbol of wealth
COLLAPSE
Failure of the whole range of interlocked systems that maintain and support industrial society
High quality fossil fuels are depleted Damaged the ecosystem it would inevitably involve a major
“die-off” of human population and loss of knowledge and infrastructure needed for industrialization
Recommendations to Governments
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden fuel” of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
04/07/2023 44
Thank You
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