Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Future of Auto Industry and Retail
One word will dominate ALL
FUTURE
The future is aboutEMOTION
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300 million move to cities in China 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
Numberofvehiclesper100people
Global car sales 107m by 2020
up from 80m in 2013
Europe / Japan - flatAmerica - recovered
China - 19m to 31m in 7 years - mainly foreign brands
44mesasmanycarsonearthifwholeworldhassameownershipasAmerica
NOX emissions
Global Manufacturing
SCALETata Group owns Jaguar in UK
Russia will be largest car maker in Europe New factories in Turkey, Indonesia, Africa, Brazil
VW mega platformVWMegaPlaAorm-basisfor1mcars
• Body Level One
• Body Level Two
• Body Level Three
• Body Level Four
• Body Level Five
Longer and shorter global supply chains
NearshoringBoom
Lighter vehicles
New Range Rovers are 40% lighter Plastics
Carbon fibreLess steel
NanotechCoa4ngs
Laser Headlights500 metres distance - Audi, BMW
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External Air Bags
Volvo in V40 hatchback , Mercedes Benz, TRW
>30%energysavingswithgreentech
Auto Fuel of the Future ?
�30 million acres lost
�EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food
25% of 2010 US grain à fuel30% US grain burnt in cars
LPG-hugegrowthinIndia
Hydrogen
GimmickorReality
Problemswithsupply,storage,milesperkgofgas
FutureofHybridCars
Whypayfortwoengines?
GMVolt-BaQeryLife
AveragedriverusesbaQery82%of4meevenwithrangeofonly38miles
Electric car sales off-target
Germany: “1 million by 2020”Nissan Leaf: selling 20,000 a year, but
factory capacity for 150,000 a year
>20,000 a year - out of $42m factory
How green are electric cars ?
France: 8g CO2 / km (mainly nuclear)
India: >120g C02 / km (mainly coal)
Future: 0g CO2 / km (focussed light)
Solar Power
Park under light focussed - Ford
BodyDesignOp4onsVeryLimitedinFuture
Everywindtunneldoesthesame
Cardesignlimitedbyhumananatomy
LimitstoCockpitDesign
Auto ParkingFord, Audi, Volvo, Honda
Predict Driver Mood
Car learns about the daily schools run - route, usual radio station, cabin temperature - and so checks the route, traffic each day Mercedes
Switch hybrid to battery only when usual journey close to home Ford
Drowsy, Drunk, DistractedAlcohol in sweat on gear leaver / erratic driving Nissan
LED detection of closed eyes University of LeicesterHead not facing road Audi
Detection heart problem (ECG from steering wheel) Nippon Medical School
Boominconnectedcarsales
GM 4G
AllnewGMcarsinUS/Candawith4G
Vehicletrainssave30%offuel
Networked-Joinedtogether
Vehicle to Vehicle Data National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
requirement for vehicle to vehicle communication by ? 2017 to prevent accidents
- warnings, automatic braking etc
Carswithnodrivers
Over700,000kmsdriven
legalliabilityinaccidents?
Who owns the driver ?
Manufacturers - telcos - breakdown companies - dealer network -
independent garages - leasing company - software provider - insurer
FutureofAutoDealersManufacturerswillfightforcontrol
ExpectnewpaQernsofcarownership
Milesdrivenby20-30yearoldsdown8%in20yearsacrossAmerica(30%downin10yearsinUK)
Rentbyhour-instantly
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Whatdoesitallmeanforautosales?
Carsaleswillgrowfastonline/mobileApps
Would recommend you to a friend ?
lifetime value of new customer
Big Data = PatternLittle Data = Person
Little Data often matters
most
“missing you”
Night Flight or Day Flight Going out or coming home? – work, food, drink, chat, party, unwind,
dark, quiet, sleep, leave
Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Future of Auto Industry is all about customer
experience, insight, choice relationship, speed and price -in an increasingly mobile world
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