Friday, April 21, 2023
RECENT PROGRESS IN THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN REDUCING
POVERTY IN AFRICA AND PERSPECTIVES ON THE WAY FORWARD
ALEJANDRO NIN PRATT
Research Fellow
OUSMANE BADIANE
Africa Coordinator
International Food Policy Research Institute
Page 2SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
OUTLINE
• Why is agriculture important for Africa?
• Agriculture’s past performance and lessons to be learned
• Success stories behind recent changes
• The way forward
Page 3SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURE
Page 4SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN AFRICA
• Agriculture contributes with a significant share of total production in Africa’s economy
• Agricultural growth drives growth in other sectors of the economy
• Agriculture plays central role in African exports• Most poverty still concentrated in rural areas• Agricultural growth drives overall income growth in rural
areas• Implications:
• Agriculture significantly contributes to economic growth • Reduces overall poverty, hunger, and malnutrition more than any
other sector
Page 5SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Niger Senegal Zambia BurkinaFaso
Incremental income from 1$ additional revenue from agricultural tradables
EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL GROWTHON OVERALL RURAL INCOMES
: O. Badiane, based on Delgado et al (1988)
Page 6SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
AGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTH
EXPORT GROWTH
DOMESTIC GROWTH
1%Growth
0.04%To
1.83%
AGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTH
: O. Badiane
Page 7SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
AGRIC. GROWTH
INDUST. GROWTH
1%Growth
1%To
1.32%
AGR. GROWTH AND INDUSTRIAL GROWTH
: O. Badiane
Page 8SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
LOW AGRICULTURAL INCOMES ARE GENERALLY CORRELATED WITH HIGH POVERTY RATES
Eth
iop
ia
Ta
nza
nia
Ma
da
ga
sca
r
Ke
nya
Bu
run
di
Co
ng
o,
DR
Rw
an
da
Ug
an
da
R2 = 70%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
20 40 60 80 100
National Poverty Rates (various years)
Pe
r C
ap
ita
Ag
GD
P (
US
$/p
ers
on
), 2
00
2
Page 9SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
GHANA: AGRICULTURAL-LED GROWTH IS MORE PRO-POOR
National poverty rate
(with GDP growth rate of 5.7%)
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Ag-led grow th Nonag-led grow th
Page 10SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
FASTER AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IS KEY TO POVERTY REDUCTION IN AFRICA
• The most effective way to reduce poverty is to raise the productivity of resources that poor people depend on for their livelihood
• Agricultural land
• Agricultural labor
• Off-farm rural labor
Page 11SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
AGRICULTURE’S PAST PERFORMANCE
Page 12SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL AND GDP GROWTH
-3
0
3
6
9
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Perc
en
t (%
)
Agriculture, value added (annual % grow th)
GDP grow th (annual %)
: M. Johnson
Page 13SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IS SPREADING
: Badiane and Ulimwengu
Page 14SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SO IS ECONOMIC GROWTH
: Badiane and Ulimwengu
Page 15SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
Ind
ex (
19
70
=1
)
Value of Ag
Inputs
TFP
Page 16SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SUCCESS STORIES EXPLAINING CHANGE
Page 17SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
POLICY CHANGES
• “One of the most fundamental shifts in the development strategy for Africa was to view agriculture not as a backward sector but as the engine of growth, an important source of export revenues and the primary means to reduce poverty.” (Kherallah et al. ,2000)
-3
0
3
6
9
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Perc
en
t (%
)
Agriculture, value added (annual % grow th)
GDP grow th (annual %)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
Ind
ex (
19
70
=1
)
Value of Ag
Inputs
TFP
1996-2005
Page 18SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND POLICY CHANGES
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Mill
. $Exports (X) Imports (M) Trade (X+M)
Period ofpolicychange
Page 19SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SUCCESS IN AGRICULTURE (I)
• CASSAVA (Nigeria, Ghana and Southern Africa)• New varieties and modern
disease fighting research (Nigeria and Ghana and Southern Africa).
• MAIZE (West Africa)• Improved yield and
nutritional content of open-pollinating varieties instead of hybrids.
Page 20SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SUCCESS IN AGRICULTURE (II)
• COTTON (Francophone West Africa)• Successful organization and
coordination of the production chain with technical innovations (high yield varieties, fertilizer use, access to equipments)
• RICE (West Africa)• The Africa Rice Center
(WARDA) produced their first inter-specific hybrids combining hardiness and wed suppression of African species with the high yields of the Asian varieties
Burkina Faso cotton farmers (Brahima Ouedraogo/IRIN)
Page 21SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SUCCESS IN AGRICULTURE (III)
• SMALLHOLDER DAIRYING (Kenya)• Decontrol of milk pricing in
1992 + available technology (crossbred cows) spurred a surge in production and commercialization of milk in informal markets.
• CUT FLOWER EXPORTS (Kenya)• Increased from $13 million
in 1970 to $155 million in 1999
credit: Smallholder Dairy Project
Page 22SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES
• NEW PARTNERSHIP FOR AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT (NEPAD)• Address challenges facing African continent
• COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM (CAADP)• Framework for restoration of agricultural growth, food security,
and rural development with key principles and targets:• 6% average annual sector growth
• Allocation of 10% of national budgets to agriculture
• Exploitation of regional complementarities and cooperation
• Accountability, partnerships, regional coordination
Page 23SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
THE WAY FORWARD
Page 24SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
IMPLICATIONS FOR COUNTRY AGRICULTURAL GROWTHRequired annual agricultural growth rates to meet MDG1
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Zim
babw
eB
urun
diG
uine
a-M
adag
asca
rK
enya
Nig
erLe
soth
oTo
goC
ote
d'Iv
oire
Cen
tral
Cha
dN
amib
iaZa
mbi
aB
enin
Gui
nea
Gam
bia
Mal
awi
Sen
egal
Sw
azila
ndN
iger
iaM
ali
Bur
kina
Tanz
ania
Mau
ritan
iaE
thio
pia
Cam
eroo
nU
gand
aG
hana
Moz
ambi
que
Req
uire
d an
nual
Ag
Gro
wth
Rat
e (%
)
: S. Fan (2007)
Page 25SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
REALITY CHECK:Progress against CAADP 10% Budget Goal (2004)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Guin
ea
Madagasc
ar
Nam
ibia
Mali
Chad
Gam
bia
Leso
tho
Zim
babw
e
Cote
d'Iv
oire
Maurita
nia
Uganda
Kenya
Eth
iopia
Mala
wi
Cam
ero
on
Moza
mbiq
ue
Benin
Nig
eria
Senegal
Centr
al A
fric
an R
epublic
Zam
bia
Sw
azi
land
Burk
ina F
aso
Tanza
nia
Togo
Buru
ndi
Nig
er
Ghana
Guin
ea-B
issa
u
Rw
anda
Perc
en
t o
f A
g t
o T
ota
l S
pen
din
g (
%)
: S. Fan (2007)
Page 26SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
POVERTY OUTCOMES UNDER CURRENT GROWTH TRENDS(Poverty Headcount, 1$/day, 2005)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Per
cen
t (%
)
Current
MDG target
: S. Fan. 2007
Page 27SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IS POSSIBLE
Share of Malnourished Children in SSA
33 3330
17
28
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Per
cent
1997 2015 2025 1997 2015 2025
CURRENT TRENDS ALTERNTIVE SCENARIO
: O. Badiane, based on Rosegrant et al (2006)
Page 28SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
LESSONS FOR AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES
• Agriculture remains the main engine of poverty reducing growth for the near future
• Recent performance is encouraging but still below required levels
• What did we learn from success factors behind the recent growth performance?
• How should we use this experience to sustain and broaden the recovery process? What should change? What should we bring into the process?
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