28 JULY – 01 AUGUST 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

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Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The trend is your friend.

Amateurs want to be right.

Professionals want to make money.

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REFERENCE RATE

(USD) 60.1448

REPO RATE 8%

REVERSE REPO 7%

CRR 4%

INFLATION 5.43%

KEY RATES As on 25/07/2014

MARKET EVENTS MARKET OUTLOOK

Rupee fell 0.3% for the week and

was first weekly loss in three in a

week supported by foreign buying in

absence of major events or factors.

Range bound trading was seen as

heavy dollar demand from importers

was seen to meet month end

commitments was offset from

custodian banks. Major reason for

strength in dollar was US treasury

prices fell on Thursday after jobless

claims dropping to their lowest since

eight years. However, FOMC meet in

coming week, other Asian currencies

and moves in domestic shares are to

be monitored for further movement

of currency.

Rupee edges up but snaps

two-week gaining streak.

Euro digs in after rebounding

from lows.

Dollar Climbs Most in 4

Months before Fed on Jobs

Market.

China's Yuan breaks three-day

rising streak, guided by

weaker midpoint.

CURRENCIES PREVIOUS

RATE

CURRENT

RATE % CHANGE

USDINR 60.4000 60.1100 -0.48

EURINR 81.6850 80.8625 -1.00

GBPINR 103.2150 102.0575 -1.12

JPYINR 59.5950 59.0125 -0.97

USDINR

EURINR

USDINR last week showed sideways movement and closed on a flat note. On daily charts, rough

Head & Shoulder pattern is seen according to which if it breaks the neck line then major support

is seen near 59.8000 closing below which it may drag down. On higher side, immediate resistance

is seen around 60.3000 sustaining above which may confirm upmove.

EURINR last week surpassed the major support of 81.4000 and sustained below this mark. If this

bearishness continue then 80.2000 is seen as key support level. On higher side, any closing above

81.4000 may confirm strength which may result in upmove.

CURRENCIES S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 USDINR 59.8000

59.5000 59.2000 60.5000 60.7000 61.0000

EURINR 80.5000 80.2000 79.9000 81.3000 81.6000 82.0000

GBPINR 101.7000 101.3000 100.8000 102.4000 102.8000

103.2000

JPYINR 58.8000 58.4000 58.0000 59.3000

59.5000 59.9000

PIVOT TABLE

DATE TIME COUNTRY EVENT BLOOMBERG

ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS

LEVEL

28-JULY-2014 7:30

PM US

Pending Home

Sales m/m -0.2% 6.1%

30-JULY-2014 11:30

PM US FOMC Statement _ _

31-JULY-2014 6:00

PM US

Unemployment

Claims 306K 284K

01-AUG-2014 6:00

PM US

Unemployment

Rate 6.1% 6.1%

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES

Brazil Real Falls as Overseas Turmoil Saps Emerging-Market

Bid.

Pound Has Steepest Week Drop in Four Months as Rally Seen

Ending.

Canada Dollar Drops to Five-Week Low on Economic Concern.

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DISCLAIMER