Where are we going?
Five Key Trends
Five Key Trends
• Three out of Four
• 83 million per year
• One million per week
• 4.9 billion
• Under 30
Three out of Four
Three out of Four - World Population 7.35 Billion
• Asia – 4.39 billion
• Africa – 1.186 billion
• Europe – 738 m
• LAC – 634 m
• North America – 360 m
• Oceania – 39 m
Population - 2030
• Africa will add another 500 million people
• Asia will add another 600 million people
• Europe will shrink by 4 million
• North America will add 60 million people
Three out of Four - Asiafrica
83 million
83 million
83 million
83 million
83 million
Where are the 83 million?
Dubai Mall – 83 million
One million per week
Our Urban World
The World Today
54% Urban
The World in 2050
66% Urban
Africa in 1950 – 3 cities of one million
Africa today – 50+ cities of one million
One million per week
One million per week
One million per week
Cities as Economic Engines
Cities as Economic Engines
Cities as Economic Engines
4.9 billion by 2030
4.9 billion (by 2030)
4.9 billion by 2030
4.9 billion (by 2030)
The Shifting Global Middle Class
Brookings Institution scholar Homi Kharas estimates that the European and American middle classes will shrink from 50 percent of the total to just 22 percent.
Rapid growth in China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia will cause Asia’s share of the new middle to more than double from its current 30%. By 2030, Asia will host 64% of the global middle class and account for over 40% of global middle-class consumption.
Huawei – Nancy Ajram
Winning the War on Poverty
25 years ago:
• 37% of humanity lived below the poverty line
• Today, 9%
1990 East Asia and Pacific:
• 60% lived below
poverty line
• Today, 7.2%
1990 South Asia:
• 50.6% of world lived below poverty line
• Today, below 15%
Under 30
Under 30
Under 30
Under 30
$56 trillion (by 2030)
Middle Class Spending
Family Travel: Emerging Middle Classes
According to research, a family trip is the second highest priority for emerging middle classes, after
buying a car
Source: World Economic Forum, Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report, 2015
International Family Travel: Room for Growth
• Across 9 key emerging markets, a Credit Suisse study found that just 8% of holidays are international trips
• Brazil, China, and Turkey growing rapidly and may have “passed an inflection point”
• India and Indonesia travelers also increasing rapidly
7 billion mobile phone subscriptions globally
9.2 billion by 2019
80% of those will be mobile broadband
2 billion smart phones today
5.6 billion smart phones by 2019
Smartphone Boom
Top Smartphone Vendors in China
Smartphone Wars
Three years ago, Samsung had 1/3 of the global market share for smart phones.
Today, Samsung has 1/5; Apple has 1/7.
Rankings
1. Samsung
2. Apple
3. Huawei
4. Xiaomi
5. Lenovo
E-Commerce Exploding
Alibaba-stan• 600 Million Subscribers
• $250 bln annual transactions
• $25 billion IPO – historic
• Nearly 3.5 mill selling products
• $14 billion in sales in one day- November 11, 2015
• Ali-pay, secure payments system, handles $780 blnin transactions yearly
The India Prize
Amazon (15% of market share)
Vs.
Flipkart (44% of market share)
Vs.
Snapdeal
Key Investors in Flipkart: Tiger Global Management, AccelPartners, Naspers
$15 billion valuation
Amazon Prediction: India will be its next biggest market after the U.S within a decade
The Car Share Wars
UBER
LYFT
DIDI CHUXING (China)
OLA (India)
GrabTaxi (SE Asia)
Careem (Dubai)
Emerging Market Growth
Air Traffic Growth
• US = 2%
• Asia-Pacific and Africa = 6-7%• Middle East = 10%+
Global Destination Cities 2016
Source: MasterCard 2015 Global Destination Cities Index
International Visitors to the U.S and Projections
Source: International Trade Administration
International Travelers to the USRank Country of Origin Number of Tourists Rate
1 Canada 20,704,701 26.7%
2 Mexico 18,413,649 23.8%
3 United Kingdom 4,900,823 6.3%
4 Japan 3,758,297 4.8%
5 China 2,591,333 3.3%
6 Germany 2,271,820 2.9%
7 Brazil 2,218,883 2.9%
8 South Korea 1,764,871 2.3%
9 France 1,752,611 2.3%
10 Australia 1,450,113 1.9%
Top 10 Total 59,827,101 77.2%
Total
International
US Visitation
77,510,282 100%
Source: 2015 U.S. Dept. of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office Report
International Student Nationalities
Rank Country of Origin Number of Students Rate
1 China 304,040 31.2%
2 India 132,888 13.6%
3 South Korea 63,710 6.5%
4 Saudi Arabia 59,945 6.1%
5 Canada 27,240 2.8%
6 Brazil 23,675 2.4%
7 Chinese Taipei 20,993 2.2%
8 Japan 19,064 2.0%
9 Vietnam 18,722 1.9%
10 Mexico 17,052 1.7%
Source: 2015 Institute of International Education at Project Atlas
Top US Destination Cities for International Travelers
Rank City # of Tourists
(000)
Rate
1 New York City, NY 10,132 26.4%
2 Miami, FL 5,509 14.4%
3 Los Angeles, CA 4,857 12.7%
4 Orlando, FL 4,718 12.3%
5 San Francisco, CA 3,632 9.5%
6 Las Vegas, NV 3,409 8.9%
7 Honolulu, HI 2,380 6.2%
8 Washington, DC 2,135 5.6%
9 Chicago, IL 1,620 4.2%
10 Boston, MA 1,609 4,2%
Source: 2015 U.S. Dept. of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office Report
Top US Destination States for International TravelersRank State Number of Tourists
(000)
Rate
1 New York 10,385 27.1%
2 Florida 9,667 25.2%
3 California 8,139 21.2
4 Nevada 3,505 9.1%
5 Hawaii 3,021 7.9%
6 Texas 1,789 4.7%
7 Massachusetts 1,789 4.7%
8 Illinois 1,708 4.5%
9 Guam 1,505 3.9%
10 Arizona 1,044 2.&%
Source: 2015 U.S. Dept. of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office Report
North America Destination Cities
Source: MasterCard 2015 Global Destination Cities Index
• China – 129%
• India – 47%
• Taiwan – 39%
• South Korea – 36%
• Australia – 27%
• Decliners:
• Venezuela – -25%
• Argentina – -15%
The Next Wave of Tourists/Travelers: Forecast Growth from 2014-2020
Chinese Tourism
• 2000 10 million• 2015 120 million $215 billion spent• 2019 174 million $264 billion forecast
“China Speed”
• Fastest growing outbound tourism market in the world
• Now accounts for 11% of global tourism expenditures
“China Size”
• Top spenders in international travel and tourism since 2012
• Top source market for international tourists worldwide
• 2014: 2.19 million
• 2015: 2.56 million
• 129% forecast growth from 2014-2020
• By 2020, China will be #3 behind Canada and Mexico
Source: ITA Travel and Tourism Market Report, 2015
Chinese Travel to the U.S.
China and U.S Travel Bottom Line
~ $58 million a day injected into local economies around the country, an investment that supported more than 109,000 U.S. jobs Source: ITA Travel and Tourism Market Report
• $35,000 per year household spurs travel
• Between 2003-13, 21 million crossed that mark
• By 2023, another 61 million
China’s growing middle class and travel
India Traveler
Source: National Travel and Tourism Office2014 Market Profile: India
India Traveler
Source: National Travel and Tourism Office2014 Market Profile: India
Brazil Traveler
Source: National Travel and Tourism Office2014 Market Profile: Brazil
Brazil Traveler
Source: National Travel and Tourism Office2014 Market Profile: Brazil
Targeting Cities
Cities Are the Economic Engines of the World and host to urban consumers and travelers
New York’s Top 5 Feeder Cities 2015
Source: MasterCard 2015 Global Destination Cities Index
LA’s Top 5 Feeder Cities 2015
Source: MasterCard 2015 Global Destination Cities Index
Miami’s Top 5 Feeder Cities 2015
Source: MasterCard 2015 Global Destination Cities Index
So, What Could Go Wrong?
The Uprisings – “How am I supposed to make a living?”
Where are we?
Syria Refugee Crisis
The Middle East/West Asia
ISIS/ISIL/ “Islamic State”
Geopolitical Flash Points
Geopolitical Flashpoints
Geopolitical Flashpoints
• China hard landing• South China Sea Tensions• North Korea Nuclear• Venezuela implosion• ISIS continued attacks in West• Putin adventurism in Eastern Europe leading to NATO
showdown• US presidential elections• European elections and the rise of populist nationalism
and protectionism• Gathering tide of anti-globalization sentiment
Dubai World Central
21
Dubai Trade, Logistics, Finance and
Tourism Hub Dubai Logistics Corridor (DLC)
SEAPORT
FREEZONE
AIRPORT
Dubai 1978
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Dubai – 1980s
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Dubai Today
Dubai Today
Emirates Airlines - 1985
Emirates Today
Over 160,000 seats per day
Boston and Kiev will be
operated by the end of
FY2013/14
134 destinations in 6 continents
15 new destinations launched in 2012
Emirates route map - 2013
UAE Geography
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