Ways to European Future
2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
PREST
Outcomes of European Foresight Projects –
FISTERA http://fistera.jrc.es/
Presentation by Ian Miles, [email protected]
Note: this is a personal view, not necessarily consensus or majority view among project members!!
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2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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FISTERA• A Thematic Network on Foresight on Information
Society Technologies in the European Research Area • Competitive action under the European FPV IST
programme • 3 years (+) from 01 September 2002• Three objectives:
– Compare results of national foresight exercises – Provide a new forum for consensus building on future
visions for IST – Contribute to constructing the European Research Area
through benchmarking and community building, by providing a dynamic pan European platform on foresight on ISTs
• Several discrete lines of work
Ways to European Future
2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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Workpackages
PRESTWorkpackage 1
Review and Analysis of National Foresight
Results Workpackage 2
Key European Technology Trajectories
Workpackage 3
IST Actor Space Mapping
Workpackage 4
IST Futures Forum
Workpackage 5
Dissemination and Interaction with the Research Community
Workpackage 6 Management
IPTS
ITAS
ARCsys
TiLab
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2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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Workpackage 1Workpackage 1
Review and Analysis of National Foresight Results
• Variations in Foresight practices• Zeitgeist problems ( extra work!)
•perceptions of EU diversity, plus common challenges (ageing, bureaucracy)…
• common themes across projects – Moore’s Law, convergence, AI, sensors…
•
• Application areas: education, e-govt., health, transport
• Drivers: security, entertainment
Ways to European Future
2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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Workpackage 2
Workpackage 2
Key European Technology Trajectories
Workpackage 2
Key European Technology Trajectories
Ways to European Future
2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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Reports, presentations and online tool
Workpackage 2
Technology
Functionality
Service
Ambient
Fou
r La
yers
List of developments
Year related today 2008 2020
Disruptions; cost and geographical trends, etc. – ambitious, rich content
Workpackage 2
Key European Technology Trajectories
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2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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Reports, presentations and online tool
Workpackage 2
http://fistera.telecomitalialab.com/
•Storage•Computation •Sensors •Display •Wet ware •Nano technology •Local Wireless Access •Printing bits into atoms •The Grid •Language Understanding
Workpackage 2
Key European Technology Trajectories
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2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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Workpackage 3
Workpackage 3
IST Actor Space Mapping
Workpackage 3
IST Actor Space Mapping
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2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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Workpackage 3
• database of actors• patent analysis of EU S&W
• priorities of major labs• study of software
Workpackage 3
IST Actor Space Mapping
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2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
PREST Patent analysis of strengths
Ways to European Future
2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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Workpackage 4
Workpackage 3
IST Actor Space Mapping
Workpackage 4
IST Futures Forum
Workpackage 4
IST Futures Forum
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2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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Workpackage 4
Delphi and Scenario Studies• Key application areas (delphi)
• Scenario review, Multiple scenario workshop, Success scenario and policy priority
workshop
Workpackage 4
IST Futures Forum
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2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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The Delphi
Round 1 Round 2 90 + 152 BRC
Some reassessed their views with
new surveys
Some confirmed original judgements
via email
Results of Both Round Combined are based on
515 final judgements363 respondents 242 respondents
Focus on Applications, not enabling technologies
Asked about implications for EU goals, not about forecasts of when developments happen
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2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
PREST 6 “Lisbon” GoalsIST Application Areas contributing to the 6 Lisbon Objectives in the EU25
76% 65%
58%
70%
62%
61%
60%
62%
55%
47% 45% 59%
48%
56%
62%
60%
56%
57%
54%
0% 300% 600%
Leisure and recreation
Security
Ageing
Transport
Health
Social / family relationships
Management
Cultural diversity
Work organisation
Government
Social welfare / public services
Education and learning
FISTERA Delphi 2004-5 % of respondents EU25 Base: 413 Resp.
Job Creation Wealth Creation Competitiveness
Social Cohesion Social Inclusion Environmental Quality
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European Capabilities
Also inputs on Actions, Challenges, Impediments and Stakeholders
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2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
PRESTFour Futures - Different Patterns of use of new IST
Competitive and Dynamic Knowledge Society:
• rapid growth in IST use• economy-driven innovations
• uneven development
Cohesive and Integrated Knowledge Society:
• rapid growth in IST use• economy-driven innovations
• much reduction in disparities across EU
Challenged Knowledge Society:• slow and very uneven growth in
IST use• innovations in specific areas
• major concerns about technology and market
Sustainable and Inclusive Knowledge Society:
• new paradigms of IST use• social & community-driven innovations
• environmental and other objectives
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 3 Scenario 4Scenario 4Scenario 3 Scenario 4Scenario 4
Progress and polaris-ation
Challenged and contested
Doing things differently
Catch Up and Creative
WS1
WS1
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Not at all A little bit A moderateamount
A considerableextend
Completely
SC3
SC1
SC2
SC4
Each scenario seen as reflected to some extent
WS1
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Rough Mapping of 4 Scenarios on 8 Goals
Competitive & Dynamic Catching-up
Challenged Cohesive & Sustainable
-2
-1
0
1
2
Sustainability &environmental quality
Social inclusion
Job creation
Competitiveness &innovativeness
Economic growth& wealth creation
Employer-employeerelations
Work-life balance
Social cohesion
Scenario 4
-2
-1
0
1
2
Sustainability &environmental quality
Social inclusion
Job creation
Competitiveness &innovativeness
Economic growth& wealth creation
Employer-employeerelations
Work-life balance
Social cohesion
Scenario 3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Sustainability &environmental quality
Social inclusion
Job creation
Competitiveness &innovativeness
Economic growth& wealth creation
Employer-employeerelations
Work-life balance
Social cohesion
Scenario 2
-2
-1
0
1
2
Sustainability &environmental quality
Social inclusion
Job creation
Competitiveness &innovativeness
Economic growth& wealth creation
Employer-employeerelations
Work-life balance
Social cohesion
Scenario 1
WS2
WS2
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Views of a Success ScenarioWS2
WS2
-2
-1
0
1
2
Sustainability &environmental quality
Social inclusion
Competitiveness &innovativeness
Job creation
Economic growth& wealth creation
Employer-employeerelations
Work-life balance
Social cohesion
Mode Mean
The orange line shows the most voted (mode) views for the success scenario The blue line shows average (mean) of the views for the success scenario
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Priority-setting Results
PC-1
PA-9
PI-9 PC-4
PA-1
PI-8PC-8
PA-3
PI-1PC-2
PA-7
PI-5PC-5
PA-2
PI-3PC-6
PA-5
PI-2
PC-10
PA-8
PI-6
PC-3
PA-4
PI-7
PC-7
PA-6
PI-4
PC-9 PA-10
6.0
8.0
10.0
15.0 19.0 23.0Feasibility(Political, Resources, Ethical, Sustainability, Technical)
Imp
ort
ance
PC-1 PA-9 PI-9
PC-4 PA-1 PI-8
PC-8 PA-3 PI-1
PC-2 PA-7 PI-5
PC-5 PA-2 PI-3
PC-6 PA-5 PI-2
PC-10 PA-8 PI-6
PC-3 PA-4 PI-7
PC-7 PA-6 PI-4
PC-9 PA-10
Moderate High
Mo
de
rate
Hig
hWS2
WS2
Impo
rtan
ce
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2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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Top Right Corner…PA-9
Raising awareness of citizens and the business community, (in particular the SME community), to the importance of IST in the future economy of the EU
PC-1EU to sponsor education of end-users in security policies for user empowerment (to control the process) at EU level
to balance security & privacy, and to educate users regulations to generate competence in the communities public debate, awareness raising, ethical curriculum to educate young people
PA-8 Interdisciplinary R&D should be directly encouraged by the EU and governments
PC-8 Research on security technology, hard and software, communication
PA-5Let communities take control. To allow regional/local communities more say in major public IST investment (the
principle of subsidiarity)
PA-7E-government applications should drive change. Governments should move directly to adopt e-government services
delivery
PA-3Training for IST at all levels in society including SME development, educational programmes at all levels including
universities. This includes lifelong learning for pleasure and for the workforce
PC-4 Ensure standards at EU level (standardisation, compatibility) ensure compatibility of past-present-future systems
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Foresight OutputsIntelligence on Foresight and IST SceneRTD policy priority analysis of variable granularity.
• Scenario Workshop – Innovative Information Society e.g. “user-centred” innovation
• Delphi – key applications for EU goals e.g. education and learning
• Trajectories and Capabilities – key underpinning S&T e.g. flexible embedded communications capabilities, profiling and tagging systems
All need to be taken into account – IS policy is multilevel, multidomain policy.
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FISTERA did not `` change FP7 course” but ”had a multiplying effect”Contribution to EU IST policy supportEC's advisory groups (eEurope, ISTAG), DGINFSO meetings, ERA National IST Forum, academic & policy conferences, presentation to Commissioner Reding’s Cab., National IST Research Directors Forum, DG RTD KTE groupContribution to national IST policy supportFISTERA methodology employed in (running) Foresight Exercises in Romania, Hungary, Austria, Poland and Colombia. Impacts in Austria, etc.Contributions to Research community20 Reports & Studies, 4 (+ 2) books, articles, CD ROMs; FISTERA reviewed by ETNO, SwissCom’s Vision 2015, NISTEP; links with ESTO, European Foresight Monitoring Network, FOR- LEARN ….
Impacts and Uses
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Critical Issues
• FISTERA produced considerable volume of original output, reviewed well and attracting much interest (?few surprises?)
• Problems with integration and synthesis of different WPs, low flexibility of working arrangements (several efforts in final publications)
• Limited interaction with key end-users (e.g. ISTAG) (? novel Foresight remained rather abstract?)
Note: this is a personal view, not necessarily majority or consensus among project members!!
Ways to European Future
2nd Policy Conference, Prague, 11-12 May 2006
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End of Presentation
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