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Page 1: Fish and food security: securing blue growth of aquaculture

Fish and food security: securing blue growth of aquacultureAsia Conference on Oceans, Food Security and Blue Growth (ACOFB 2013). 18-21 June 2013, Bali, Indonesia

Michael Phillips and Malcolm Beveridge

Page 2: Fish and food security: securing blue growth of aquaculture

Outline

• Fish and food security• “Blue growth” in aquaculture• Future actions

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Wealth and population growth are major drivers for animal source food consumption, including fish

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Fish demand is growing.. along with other animal sources foods

source: Hall et al. (2011)

Year

Pro

duct

ion

(milli

on

tonn

es)

20

40

60

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

80

100

120

Pig

Chicken

Fish

Production targets (national data)

Production forecast (this study)

Year

Pro

duct

ion

(milli

on

tonn

es)

20

40

60

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

80

100

120

FAO (2004)Wijkstrom (2003)

IFPRI (2003)Ye (1999)

Fish

•Baseline scenario

•Technological advances in aquaculture

•Ecological collapse of fisheries

• Global consumption remains at1996 levels (15.6 kg/y)

• Global consumption rises to 22.5 kg/y

Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum)

Stagnant fisheries

Year

Pro

duct

ion

(milli

on

tonn

es)

20

40

60

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

80

100

120

FAO (2004)Wijkstrom (2003)

IFPRI (2003)Ye (1999)

Fish

•Baseline scenario

•Technological advances in aquaculture

•Ecological collapse of fisheries

• Global consumption remains at1996 levels (15.6 kg/y)

• Global consumption rises to 22.5 kg/y

Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum)

Stagnant fisheries

Page 5: Fish and food security: securing blue growth of aquaculture

Aquaculture is growing to meet demand

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Future fish demand (2007-2015)

source: FAO - Cai (2011)

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Future need

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Small-scale, wild, fisheries will remain important for the poor, food and nutrition

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Blue growth of aquaculture

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The world according to aquaculture…

source: Hall et al. (2011)

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Aquaculture – major species groups, 2008

other aquatic animals

freshwater fishes

aquatic plants

clams, mussels, oysters

prawns, shrimps, etc.

salmon, trout, etc.

marine fishes

5 10 15 20 25

28.8

15.8

13.1

0

5.0

3.3

source: http://www.fao.org/sof/sofia/index_en.htm

1.8

0.6

million tonnes

Page 12: Fish and food security: securing blue growth of aquaculture

Aquaculture growth impacts ecosystems

Major impact categoriesEutrophication

Freshwater use

Land use

Ecotoxicity

Biodiversity

Climate change

Energy use

Biotic depletion

Page 13: Fish and food security: securing blue growth of aquaculture

Life cycle analysis approach

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Environmental impacts - a summary

source: Hall et al. 2011

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Farmed fish compares well with other animal source foods

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But, business as usual doubles impacts of aquaculture by 2030

source: Rockström et al, 2009

Aquaculture impact categories

Eutrophication

Freshwater use

Land use

Ecotoxicity

Biodiversity

Climate change

Energy use

Biotic depletionsource: Rockstrom et al. 2009

Our planetary boundaries

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Putting blue growth of aquaculture into practice

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“Blue Frontiers” interventions• Innovation• Regulations and policy• Technologies and management• Monitoring and compliance• Supply, demand and markets

source: Hall et al. 2011

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(1) Innovations

• Feeds• Genetics• Systems• Extension• Markets• Mobile tech

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(2) Regulations and policy

• International standards• New regulations and policy• Implementation

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(3) Lower impact technology

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Significant scope for improvement in environmental performance

.. within species groups

… and between species groups

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(4) Monitoring and compliance

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source: Cai (2011)

(5) Better understand supply and demand scenarios

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(6) “Blue” Investments• US$50-70 billion in infrastructure• Clear need for private partnerships

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Messages

• Future food and nutrition security requires both aquaculture and fisheries

• Aquaculture can be an efficient animal source food producer

• Lower impact aquaculture pathways necessary

• Change is possible but the challenge is scale

• Inclusive partnerships

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Thankyou – Terima Kasih

[email protected] and CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS)Acknowledgements – Resource Legacy Fund, GIZ and FAO/Allfish