ICIC
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ecurit
ies –
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esearch
Monthly
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January 14, 2020
Health Check
India growth likely to persist but US may drag Q3…
The I-direct healthcare universe is expected to register ~6% YoY growth to
| 35025 crore. While domestic formulations are likely to maintain growth
tempo on the back of extension of acute season and price hikes, the US pack
is likely to drag numbers, due to a higher base. On the companies front, only
four out of 10 companies are likely to report double digit growth. Owing to
the higher base, the EBITDA of the I-direct healthcare universe is expected
to de-grow at 6.6% YoY to | 7099.3 crore. EBITDA margins are likely to
decline 277 bps to 20.3%. However, improved operational leverage, better
product mix and efficient cost control measures is likely to restrict a further
fall in margins. Adjusted net profit is expected to fall 10% YoY to | 3826
crore mainly due to a weak operational performance and impact of Ind-AS.
In a negative development, Dr Reddy’s has lost first mover advantage for
gNuvaRing in the US. US based Amneal has launched the first generic
version of NuvaRing (gynaecology). NuvaRing has US sales of ~US$976
million. We expect gNuvaRing to remain a limited competition market, at
least in the near to medium term.
Lupin has completed the divestiture of its Japanese subsidiary, Kyowa
Pharma, to Unison Capital for ~| 3700 crore. This deal generates net tax
cash inflow of ~| 2158 crore. Post the deal, Lupin's net debt will come down
to ~| 1075 crore from ~| 4362 crore earlier.
On regulatory front, HDFC has completed the acquisition of 50.8% stake of
Apollo Hospital Group in Apollo Munich Health Insurance. This transaction
will give ~| 300 crore to Apollo Hospitals and likely reduce pledged shares
to ~46% from current ~67%. Sun Pharma's Halol facility, Gujarat has got
eight observations after USFDA inspection conducted in December 3-13.
In another major development, PE fund True North is set to acquire 2.44%
stake in Biocon Biologics (post-merger with Biocon Research), for | 536.25
crore. The acquisition values the subsidiary at ~| 21450 crore (US$3 billion).
The fair value is below our implied valuation for the biologics business.
The Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) grew 8.8% YoY to | 12024 crore in
December 2019. The growth was majorly attributable to a price hike of 5.3%,
new launches: 2.7% and volume growth of mere 0.7%. On a MAT basis, IPM
growth was 9.8% YoY to | 140223 crore.
Stock specific approach best way to play in healthcare…
Q3 numbers are expected to be driven by decent growth in domestic
formulations. However, overall growth is likely to be dragged by the US
owing to a higher base. Holistically, though, the US generics narrative, in the
last few quarters, is reflecting some sort of normalcy on the back of a stability
in the base business performance and new launches besides rationalisation
of unviable products. However, a sudden increase in USFDA scrutiny has
once again put US-heavy companies under pressure. Profitability is likely to
improve as the management commentary continues to suggest
rationalisation of R&D and other related expenses, MR optimisation and
concentrated focus on marketing costs for specialty and biosimilars.
Chinese raw material sourcing, besides improving operating leverage, are
also likely to contribute to margin expansion. Similarly, the companies are
moderating their capex plans to focus on better RoCE. Financially, things are
looking much stable. However, resurfacing of regulatory issues raised by the
USFDA (19 warning letters for Indian players in 2019) would continue to play
as overhang for players having higher US generic exposure. In this
backdrop, we continue to maintain a stock specific approach. MNCs, CRAMs
and hospitals are our preferred sub-segments for bargain hunting.
Stock Performance
Mcap
Company 1M 3M YTD 1Y 13-Jan
Sun Pharma.Inds. 1 15 3 0 106804
Divi's Lab. 2 11 2 25 49775
Dr Reddy's Labs 5 12 3 14 49160
Cipla 4 8 0 -6 38538
Biocon -3 15 -3 -12 34056
Lupin -1 6 -2 -11 33742
Torrent Pharma. 2 16 3 1 32152
Cadila Health. -2 12 1 -26 26279
Abbott -3 14 -4 55 26652
Aurobindo Pharma 3 5 1 -40 27026
Pfizer -8 28 -5 45 18301
Apollo Hospitals 10 3 3 15 20682
Sanofi -3 15 -4 8 15547
Ipca Labs. 5 38 4 52 14973
Syngene Int. 4 1 -2 15 12518
Natco Pharma 7 12 5 -9 11386
Alembic Pharma 1 2 -2 -5 10535
Fortis Health 4 3 8 2 10720
Glenmark Pharma. 1 20 -1 -47 9709
Ajanta Pharma 6 7 7 -10 9084
Jubilant Life 6 18 4 -24 8858
Aster DM 5 35 -1 -3 8076
Narayana Hrudayalaya11 46 12 69 7040
FDC Ltd 10 37 5 29 3814
Suven Life 12 20 1 38 3933
Indoco Remedies 35 47 4 -10 1833
Hester Bio -7 -15 0 26 1228
Hikal 11 -16 5 -24 1485
Shalby Ltd 3 17 5 -34 1053
Healthcare Global 15 1 2 -45 945
NGL Fine-Chem 9 -11 9 0 285
Return (%)
Source: Bloomberg
Global indices performance
Company 1M 3M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y
S&P 500 Pharm Index (US)3 13 1 16 12 7
NASDAQ Biotechnology (US)0 20 0 11 9 3
S&P Pharmaceuticals (US)9 28 0 16 6 -2
DJ Pharma and Biotech (US)3 16 1 14 11 6
DJ STOXX Healthcare (EU)4 12 2 31 12 8
MSCI World Pharm & Biotech3 15 1 19 13 6
NSE Pharma 0 11 0 -9 -8 -5
Return (%)
Source: Bloomberg
Research Analyst
Siddhant Khandekar
MItesh Shah, CFA
Sudarshan Agarwal
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2
ICICI Direct Research
Monthly Sector Update | Health Check
Healthcare Q3FY20 Results Preview
The I-direct healthcare universe is expected to register ~6% YoY growth to
| 35098 crore. While domestic formulations are likely to maintain growth
tempo on the back of extension of acute season and price hikes, the US pack
is likely to drag numbers due to higher base.
Domestic formulations (select pack) are expected to grow 12.6% YoY to
| 5881 crore mainly due to extension of the acute season and price hikes
across portfolio to adjust for higher raw material prices. The US (select pack)
portfolio is expected to decline 1.3% YoY to | 10232 crore due to 1) base
effect mainly in Cadila and Sun Pharma, 2) strengthening of rupee vs. US$
and 3) sharp decline in Sartan portfolio. The decline in the US could have
been sharper but for a strong ramp-up in gTamiflu and steady base business
performance in some US focused players. Europe is expected to grow 12%
YoY. Growth in other emerging markets and Europe is likely to be driven by
new launches. However, due to high base effect, APIs segment growth is
expected to remain muted. For Q3FY20, average YoY rupee appreciation
vis-à-vis US$ was 1.2%. In case of Apollo Hospitals, growth is likely to be
driven by newly commissioned hospitals and pharmacy additions.
On the companies front, only four out of 10 companies are likely to report
double digit growth. Among key outliers, Ipca (strong domestic formulations
and APIs), Biocon (biologics traction) and Apollo Hospitals (ramp up in new
hospitals and addition of new pharmacies) are likely to register above 15%
growth in revenues.
EBITDA to decline 7% YoY; margins likely to contract 285 bps
Owing to a higher base, the EBITDA of the I-direct healthcare universe is
expected to de-grow 6.8% YoY to | 7085.3 crore. EBITDA margins are likely
to decline 285 bps to 20.2%. However, improved operational leverage,
improvement in product mix and efficient cost control measures are likely
to restrict a further fall in margins.
Adjusted net profit to de-grow 11%
Adjusted net profit is expected to decline 11% YoY to | 3816 crore mainly
due to a weak operational performance and impact of Ind-AS.
Exhibit 1: Estimates for Q3FY20E (| crore)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research, *Lupin’s reported PAT is expected to be ~|2360.3 crore due to Kyowa divestment
proceeds
Revenue EBITDA PAT
Q3FY20E YoY QoQ Q3FY20E YoY QoQ Q3FY20E YoY QoQ
Aurobindo Pharma 5,876.3 11.5 4.9 1,162.9 6.8 2.0 667.8 -9.4 2.3
Biocon 1,774.4 15.2 12.9 446.0 17.2 10.7 211.1 -0.6 11.7
Cadila Healthcare 3,439.7 -3.9 2.2 646.7 -23.0 3.4 331.4 -35.1 4.5
Divi's Lab 1,466.6 9.2 1.5 491.6 -6.1 0.2 360.5 -5.0 1.1
Dr. Reddys 4,194.5 8.5 -12.8 849.2 5.5 -20.2 466.6 -6.7 -57.8
IPCA Labs 1,127.8 19.0 -7.0 248.1 7.1 -5.1 174.1 8.7 -11.2
Lupin 4,256.6 -5.5 -2.4 660.1 -12.4 -9.8 202.7* 4.4 -51.7
Sunpharma 8,386.3 8 3.2 1,627.9 -24 -9.0 1,045.6 -16 -1.7
Torrent Pharma 2,074.9 1.2 3.5 574.1 2.3 6.1 255.6 3.9 4.7
Apollo Hospitals 2,501.3 15.3 1.5 378.7 41.4 3.9 100.6 15.7 11.0
Total 35,098.4 6.3 0.4 7,085.3 -6.8 -4.4 3,815.9 -10.6 -17.7
Change (%) Change (%) Change (%)
Company
Expected growth in domestic formulations
(| cr) Q3FY20E Q3FY19 % Q2FY20 %
Biocon 138 212 -35.0 128 7.4
Cadila 947 846 12.0 978 -3.1
Ipca 489 422 16.0 543 -10.0
Lupin 1,345 1,190 13.0 1,342 0.2
Dr Reddy's 755 674 12.0 751 0.5
Sun Pharma2,634 2,235 17.8 2,515 4.7
Torrent 919 835 10.0 899 2.2
Total 5881 5224 12.6 10369 -43.3
Expected growth in US formulations
(| cr) Q3FY20E Q3FY19 % Q2FY20 %
Aurobindo 2,890 2,433 18.8 2,836 1.9
Cadila 1,564 1,934 -19.1 1,448 8.0
Lupin 1,413 1,417 -0.3 1,324 6.7
Dr Reddy's 1,518 1,483 2.3 1,427 6.4
Sun Pharma2,476 2,606 -5.0 2,390 3.6
Torrent 372 490 -24.1 380 -2.2
Total 10232 10364 -1.3 9805 4.4
Expected growth in Europe formulations
(| cr) Q3FY20E Q3FY19 % Q2FY20 %
Aurobindo 1,454 1,293 12.4 1,401 3.7
Cadila 47 60 -21.0 41 15.5
Dr Reddy's 274 203 35.0 276 -0.9
Lupin 159 142 12.0 172 -7.4
Torrent 264 267 -1.0 250 5.7
Total 2198 1965 11.9 2141 2.7
Expected growth in API segment
(| cr) Q3FY20E Q3FY19 % Q2FY20 %
Aurobindo 830 922 -10.0 806 3.0
Cadila 104 130 -20.0 105 -0.9
Divi's Lab 712 678 5.0 701 1.6
Ipca Labs 304 230 31.9 314 -3.4
Lupin 326 362 -10.0 305 6.9
Dr Reddy's 683 594 15.0 711 -3.9
Sun Pharma 447 426 5.0 468 -4.4
Total 2693 2664 1.1 2709 -0.57
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3
ICICI Direct Research
Monthly Sector Update | Health Check
IPM grows ~9% YoY in December…
The Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) grew 8.8% YoY to | 12024 crore in
December 2019. The growth was majorly attributable to price hike: 5.3%,
new product launches: 2.7% and volume growth of mere 0.7%.
Drugs under NLEM list grew 9.2% YoY while non-NLEM drugs grew 8.8%.
The fixed dosage combination (FDCs) related market showed a decline of
45%, approved FDC market grew 9.5% while single molecules grew 8.6%.
Among companies under I-direct coverage, eight companies (Ipca, P&G
Health, Cadila, FDC, Glenmark, Torrent, Pfizer and Dr Reddy’s) have
outperformed industry growth rate.
Therapy wise, nine major therapies have registered faster than industry
growth. Notable among them with growth rates: respiratory - 16.9%, anti-
infective – 11.8%, anti-Malarials – 10.7% and vitamins – 9%.
Domestic companies have grown at 9.7% YoY while MNC companies have
grown at 5.2%.
On a MAT basis, IPM growth was 9.8% YoY to | 140223 crore.
Exhibit 2: Domestic formulations - Growth trend
Source: ICICI Direct Research; AIOCD
Exhibit 3: Companies growth in domestic market in December 2019
Source: ICICI Direct Research, AIOCD
9.7 1
0.8
9.9
8.9
10.5
7.2
6.9
13.3
9.6
12.0
5.3
14.6
8.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
(%
)
Indian Pharma Market
6.14.3 4.5
-8.4
10.4
6.7
22.8
12.8
6.65.7
9.3 8.5
-11.7
15.6
-2.9
8.8
14.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Abbott
Aja
nta
Ale
mbic
Bio
con
Cadila
Cip
la
Dr R
eddys
Gle
nm
ark
GS
K P
harm
a
Indoco
Ipca L
abs
Lupin
Natco
Pfiz
er
Sanofi
Sun P
harm
a
Torrent
(%
)
Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Dec'19 Dec'18 %Nov'19 %
Anti-Infectives 1620 1449 11.8 1790 -9.5
Cardiac 1544 1412 9.3 1542 0.1
GI 1239 1180 5.1 1342 -7.6
Anti Diabetic 1174 1111 5.7 1191 -1.4
Respiratory 1068 913 16.9 1080 -1.1
Vitamins 995 914 9.0 1063 -6.3
Derma 815 772 5.6 873 -6.6
Pain 799 737 8.4 872 -8.4
Neuro 726 675 7.5 750 -3.2
Gynaecological 566 533 6.1 587 -3.5
Anti-Neoplastics 253 243 4.3 263 -3.8
Hormones 228 206 10.6 236 -3.5
Ophthal 213 200 6.1 226 -5.8
Vaccines 196 182 7.4 200 -2.4
Urology 161 146 10.4 163 -1.5
Blood Related 134 115 16.8 151 -11.5
Others 119 101 17.8 117 1.3
Sex Stimulants 69 65 5.0 66 4.4
Stomatologicals 63 56 12.9 66 -3.9
Anti Malarials 43 38 10.7 58 -26.9
Source: ICICI Direct Research; AIOCD
Top brands in IPM (MAT; | crore)
Source: ICICI Direct Research; AIOCD
Acute vs. chronic vs. sub chronic
Source: ICICI Direct Research; AIOCD; As per AIOCD MAT Dec 2019
Acute
47%
Chronic
33%
Sub
Chronic
20%
Brand Company Therapy Dec'19YoY %
Mixtard Abbott Anti Diabetic 546 7.7
Glycomet GpUSV Anti Diabetic 489 7.4
Lantus Sanofi IndiaAnti Diabetic 487 5.9
Janumet MSD Anti Diabetic 478 13.3
Augmentin GSK Anti-Infectives443 19.5
Galvus Met Novartis Anti Diabetic 411 -6.0
Liv 52 Himalaya GI 405 5.1
Duphaston Abbott Hormones 390 16.3
Clavam Alkem Anti-Infectives379 14.0
Monocef Aristo Anti-Infectives363 21.9
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4
ICICI Direct Research
Monthly Sector Update | Health Check
Exhibit 4: Domestic formulations – market share (MAT value December 2019)
Source: ICICI Direct Research, AIOCD
Exhibit 5: Acute vs. chronic vs. sub chronic (MAT value December 2019)
Source: ICICI Direct Research, AIOCD
8%
6%
5%
4%4%
3%
2% 2% 2% 2%
1%1%
1% 1% 1% 1%0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Sun
Abbott
Cip
la
Cadila
Lupin
Torrent
Pfiz
er
Dr.
Reddys
Sanofi
Gle
nm
ark
Ipca
Ale
mbic
FD
C
Natco
Indoco
Aja
nta
Bio
con
39 40
57
3042
52
77
40
82
65
27
88
42
60
44 41
27
54
3950
24
6145 28
9
42
527
57
1
53 17 52
45
52
30
2210
199 13
2013 19 13
716 11
5
23
415
2115
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Abbott
Aja
nta
Ale
mbic
Bio
con
Cip
la
Dr.
Reddys
FD
C
Gle
nm
ark
Indoco
IPC
A
Lupin
Sun
Novartis
Pfiz
er*
Sanofi
Sun
Torrent
Cadila
%
Acute Chronic Sub Chronic
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 5
ICICI Direct Research
Monthly Sector Update | Health Check
IPM grew ~10% YoY in Q3FY20…
The Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) grew 9.5% YoY to | 36951 crore in
Q3FY20. The growth was attributable to price hike: 5.4%, new product
launches: 2.7% and volumes growth: 1.4%.
The fixed dosage combination (FDCs) related market showed a decline of
53.3% while the approved FDC market grew 9.8% and single product market
grew 9.6%.
Drugs under the NLEM list grew 10.1% YoY while non-NLEM drugs grew
9.5%. Growth was mainly driven by price hikes.
Among companies under I-direct coverage, eight companies (Dr Reddy’s,
Pfizer, Glenmark, Cadila, FDC, Torrent, Lupin, Sun Pharma) have
outperformed industry growth rate.
Therapy wise, nine major therapies have registered faster than industry
growth. Notable among them with growth rates- respiratory – 13.9%,
urology – 12.2%, cardiac – 10.3%, anti-infective – 10.2% and derma – 9.7%.
Domestic companies have grown at 9.9% YoY while MNC companies have
grown at 7.7%
Exhibit 6: Domestic formulations - growth trend
Source: ICICI Direct Research; AIOCD
Exhibit 7: Companies growth in domestic market in Q3FY20
Source: ICICI Direct Research, AIOCD
5.37.0 7.3
1.9 2.3 2.5
0.1
3.2
1.4
-1.6 -1.1 -0.9
5.0 4.9 4.9
5.1
5.5
5.4
2.7
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5
2.9
2.8
2.76.4
8.6
9.0 9.79.8
9.9
8.1
11.5
9.5
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20
Volumes Price Increases New Products
8.3 4.9
3.2
(1.6)
7.0
22.7
12.0 13.9
7.5 7.1
10.9
(10.5)
18.9
1.9
10.0 11.9 12.1
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Abbott
Aja
nta
Ale
mbic
Bio
con
Cip
la
Dr R
eddys
FD
C
Gle
nm
ark
Indoco
IPC
A
Lupin
Natco
Pfiz
er
Sanofi
Sun
Torrent
Cadila
(%
)
Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Q3FY20 Q3FY19 % Q2FY20 %
Anti-Infectives5218 4732 10.3 5356 -2.6
Cardiac 4577 4149 10.3 4427 3.4
GI 3903 3612 8.1 4220 -7.5
Anti Diabetic 3530 3270 8.0 3499 0.9
Respiratory 3138 2756 13.9 2592 21.1
Vitamins 3095 2856 8.4 3266 -5.3
Pain 2523 2300 9.7 2563 -1.6
Derma 2511 2336 7.5 2470 1.6
Neuro 2199 2018 9.0 2150 2.3
Gynaecological1724 1612 7.0 1775 -2.9
Anti-Neoplastics769 719 6.8 750 2.6
Hormones 688 624 10.2 660 4.1
Ophthal 656 610 7.6 660 -0.6
Vaccines 591 552 7.1 582 1.5
Urology 487 434 12.2 493 -1.2
Blood Related 441 373 18.3 438 0.7
Others 347 298 16.3 335 3.6
Sex Stimulants 194 174 11.8 187 3.9
Stomatologicals191 168 13.4 195 -1.8
Anti Malarials 169 158 7.0 183 -8.1
Source: ICICI Direct Research; AIOCD
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 6
ICICI Direct Research
Monthly Sector Update | Health Check
IPM grows ~10% YoY in CY19; price-led growth…
The Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) grew 9.8% YoY to | 140223 crore
in CY19. The growth was attributable to price hike: 5.3%, new product
launches: 2.5% and volumes growth: 2.0%.
The fixed dosage combination (FDCs) related market showed a decline of
59.6% while the approved FDC market grew 10.4% and single product
market grew 10.1%.
Drugs under NLEM list grew 9.1% YoY while non-NLEM drugs grew 9.9%.
Growth was mainly driven by price hikes.
Among companies under I-direct coverage, eight companies (Glenmark,
GSK, Torrent, Cadila, Ipca, Indoco remedies, Lupin, Dr Reddy’s) have
outperformed industry growth rates.
Therapy wise, seven major therapies have registered faster than industry
growth. Notable among them with growth rates- urology – 14.6%, anti-
diabetic – 12.6%, cardiac – 11.7% and hormones – 9.9%.
Domestic companies have grown at 9.9% YoY while MNC companies have
grown at 9.3%.
Exhibit 8: Domestic formulations - growth trend
Source: ICICI Direct Research; AIOCD
Exhibit 9: Companies growth in domestic market in CY19
Source: ICICI Direct Research, AIOCD
6.4
7.0 2.84.6
1.8
4.9
3.4
-0.2
2.0
5.2
3.4
3.7
2.9
2.72.7
14.7
10.7
5.5
9.39.8
(0.5)
1.5
3.5
5.5
7.5
9.5
11.5
13.5
15.5
CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19
Volumes Price Increases New Products
9.5
6.3
5.1
8.5 8.5
16.6
5.9
9.9
13.0 12.7
14.5
1.7
9.2 9.7
8.4
11.7 11.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Abbott
Aja
nta
Ale
mbic
Bio
con
Cip
la
Dr R
eddys
FD
C
Gle
nm
ark
Indoco
IPC
A
Lupin
Natco
Pfiz
er
Sanofi
Sun
Torrent
Cadila
(%
)
Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Source: ICICI Direct Research; AIOCD
Therapy CY19 CY18 YoY (%)
Anti-Infectives 19087 17479 9.2
Cardiac 17577 15738 11.7
GI 15632 14417 8.4
Anti Diabetic 13648 12116 12.6
Vitamins 12149 11131 9.1
Respiratory 10519 9601 9.6
Pain 9549 8697 9.8
Derma 9455 8749 8.1
Neuro 8441 7693 9.7
Gynaecological 6909 6395 8.0
Anti-Neoplastics 3015 2768 8.9
Hormones 2564 2333 9.9
Ophthal 2562 2353 8.8
Vaccines 2246 2133 5.3
Urology 1880 1641 14.6
Blood Related 1634 1440 13.4
Others 1298 1174 10.6
Sex Stimulants 763 680 12.2
Stomatologicals 739 632 16.9
Anti Malarials 556 523 6.4
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 7
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Monthly Sector Update | Health Check
Exhibit 10: Top five brands in value terms (MAT value December 2019)
Sun Brand Therapy Sales
1 Rosuvas Cardiac 275
2 Levipil Neuro 274
3 Volini Pain 258
4 Istamet Anti Diabetic 256
5 Gemer Anti Diabetic 204
Cipla Brand Therapy Sales
1 Foracort Respiratory 325
2 Budecort Respiratory 238
3 Duolin Respiratory 220
4 Seroflo Respiratory 191
5 Asthalin Respiratory 174
Cadila Brand Therapy Sales
1 Skinlite Derma 168
2 Deriphyllin Respiratory 167
3 Atorva Cardiac 137
4 Mifegest Kit Gynaecological 129
5 Pantodac GI 126
Lupin Brand Therapy Sales
1 Gluconorm-G Anti Diabetic 254
2 Huminsulin Anti Diabetic 183
3 Budamate Respiratory 130
4 Gibtulio Anti Diabetic 125
5 Ondero Anti Diabetic 110
Torrent Brand Therapy Sales
1 Shelcal Vitamins 220
2 Chymoral FortePain 156
3 Nikoran Cardiac 110
4 Azulix-Mf Anti Diabetic 103
5 Nexpro Rd GI 97
Dr. Reddys Brand Therapy Sales
1 Omez GI 153
2 Omez D GI 130
3 Econorm GI 127
4 Atarax Derma 111
5 Razo D GI 89
Glenmark Brand Therapy Sales
1 Telma Cardiac 272
2 Telma H Cardiac 215
3 Telma Am Cardiac 135
4 Candid Derma 120
5 Ascoril Plus Respiratory 113
IPCA Brand Therapy Sales
1 Zerodol Sp Pain 193
2 Zerodol P Pain 125
3 Hcqs Anti Malarials 117
4 Folitrax Anti-Neoplastics 65
5 Zerodol Th Pain 52
Alembic Brand Therapy Sales
1 Azithral Anti-Infectives 164
2 Althrocin Anti-Infectives 83
3 Wikoryl Respiratory 72
4 Roxid Anti-Infectives 53
5 Gestofit Gynaecological 47
Natco Brand Therapy Sales
1 Velpanat Anti-Infectives 171
2 Hepcinat Anti-Infectives 158
3 Geftinat Anti-Neoplastics 121
4 Erlonat Anti-Neoplastics 103
5 Natdac Anti-Infectives 93
Indoco Brand Therapy Sales
1 Febrex Plus Respiratory 90
2 Cyclopam GI 55
3 Oxipod Anti-Infectives 52
4 Sensodent-K Stomatologicals 51
5 Atm Anti-Infectives 48
Ajanta Brand Therapy Sales
1 Met Xl Cardiac 107
2 Atorfit Cv Cardiac 52
3 Melacare Derma 50
4 Feburic Pain 35
5 Rosutor Gold Cardiac 26
Biocon Brand Therapy Sales
1 Insugen Anti Diabetic 112
2 Basalog Anti Diabetic 86
3 Canmab Anti-Neoplastics 69
4 Erypro Blood Related 29
5 Insugen R Anti Diabetic 25
Abbott Brand Therapy Sales
1 Mixtard Anti Diabetic 546
2 Duphaston Gynaecological 390
3 Thyronorm Hormones 352
4 Novomix Anti Diabetic 304
5 Phensedyl Cough LinctusRespiratory 290
Sanofi Brand Therapy Sales
1 Lantus Anti Diabetic 487
2 Combiflam Pain 189
3 Allegra Respiratory 189
4 Amaryl M Anti Diabetic 160
5 Hexaxim Vaccines 154
Source: ICICI Direct Research; AIOCD; Sanofi includes Sanofi India and Sanofi Pasteur (Vaccine)
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Monthly Sector Update | Health Check
Exhibit 11: Top five therapies in value term (MAT value December 2019)
Sun Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Cardiac 2009
2 Neuro 1911
3 GI 1389
4 Anti-Infectives 1183
5 Anti Diabetic 1051
Cipla Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Respiratory 2242
2 Anti-Infectives 1431
3 Cardiac 859
4 GI 411
5 Urology 374
Cadila Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Anti-Infectives 885
2 Cardiac 796
3 Respiratory 636
4 GI 623
5 Pain 559
Lupin Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Cardiac 1267
2 Anti Diabetic 1264
3 Anti-Infectives 754
4 Respiratory 662
5 GI 386
Torrent Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Cardiac 1319
2 GI 697
3 Neuro 637
4 Vitamins 547
5 Anti Diabetic 352
Dr. Reddys Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 GI 762
2 Cardiac 444
3 Derma 367
4 Respiratory 272
5 Anti Diabetic 246
Glenmark Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Derma 880
2 Cardiac 866
3 Respiratory 570
4 Anti-Infectives 423
5 Anti Diabetic 278
IPCA Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Pain 572
2 Cardiac 325
3 Anti Malarials 305
4 Anti-Infectives 141
5 GI 134
Alembic Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Anti-Infectives 366
2 Cardiac 261
3 Respiratory 224
4 GI 199
5 Gynaecological 189
Natco Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Anti-Infectives 511
2 Anti-Neoplastics 507
3 Pain 32
4 Cardiac 4
5 Others 2
Indoco Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Stomatologicals 167
2 Respiratory 161
3 Anti-Infectives 157
4 GI 126
5 Vitamins 78
Ajanta Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Cardiac 344
2 Ophthal 201
3 Derma 135
4 Pain 50
5 Vitamins 29
Biocon Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Anti Diabetic 257
2 Anti-Neoplastics 130
3 Blood Related 32
4 Anti-Infectives 25
5 Derma 17
Abbott Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Anti Diabetic 1664
2 GI 1500
3 Vitamins 910
4 Neuro 733
5 Anti-Infectives 709
Sanofi Therapy Sales (|cr)
1 Anti Diabetic 936
2 Cardiac 487
3 Vaccines 405
4 Respiratory 328
5 Pain 272
Source: ICICI Direct Research, AIOCD; Sanofi includes Sanofi India and Sanofi Pasteur (Vaccine)
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 9
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Monthly Sector Update | Health Check
Monthly Sector News
Price hikes, new launches, recalls, approvals
Cadila launches anti-diabetic tablets (Vildagliptin) in India
Cadila has launched oral anti-diabetic drug formulations, Vinglyn
(Vildagliptin) and Vinglyn M (Vildagliptin + Metformin) tablets in India. The
drug (Vinglyn), a DPP4 (Dipeptidyl peptidase-4) inhibitor used to control
type-2 diabetes, is affordably priced at | 4.95/tablet.
Amneal beats Dr Reddy's in launching NuvaRing generic
In a negative turn of events for Dr Reddy’s, Amneal Pharma has received
USFDA approval for EluRyng (etonogestrel/ethinyl estradiol vaginal ring),
making it the first generic version of NuvaRing. As per the press release,
Amneal has also initiated commercialisation activities for EluRyng.
NuvaRing had US annual sales of ~US$976 million as per IQVIA MAT
October 2019. Dr Reddy’s has lost first mover advantage for gNuvaring in
the US. However, we believe gNuvaring will remain a four generic players
market (Amneal, Dr Reddy’s, Mayne and Teva), at least in the near term.
Aurobindo recalls 59,500 vials of its antipsychotic drug in US
As per media reports, Aurobindo Pharma (AuroMedics) has issued a
voluntary class-II recall of ~59,500 vials of its antipsychotic drug,
Fluphenazine Decanoate injection, 125 mg/5 ml (multiple dose vial) from US
due to discoloration (hazy solution) found in one vial.
NPPA increases 21 NLEM drug prices by 50%
NPPA has invoked paragraph 19 of the Drug Price Control Order (DPCO),
2013, to increase ceiling prices of 21 formulations under price control by
50%.
Glenmark recalls ranitidine tablets from US
As per USFDA disclosures, Glenmark Pharma has issued a voluntary recall
of 928 lots of Ranitidine tablets, 150/300 mg in the US due to
presence/possible presence of N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) impurity, a
known probable human carcinogen.
Glenmark receives approval for Ryaltris in Australia
Glenmark partner Seqirus has received marketing approval for Ryaltris
(olopatadine hydrochloride, 665 mcg & mometasone furoate, 25 mcg) from
Therapeutic Goods Administration, Australia. The drug, a new fixed‐dose
combination nasal spray of an antihistamine and a steroid is indicated for
treatment of symptoms associated with allergic rhinitis and rhino
conjunctivitis. The company will be responsible for the product supply and
receive milestone payments from Seqirus. The drug will be manufactured at
Glenmark's Baddi, Himachal Pradesh facility.
Natco launches oncology drug 'Ibrutinib' in India
As per media reports, Natco Pharma has launched an equivalent of
Pharmacyclics' oncology drug Imbruvica (Ibrutinib) in India under its brand
'Ibrunat'. In India, the patent for the drug is held by Pharmacyclics for three
to four more years and the marketing rights by Johnson & Johnson. The
company's version is expected to cost ~| 38,000 per month against
| 400,000 course of the innovator
Aurobindo recalls Mirtazapine tablets in US
Aurobindo Pharma has issued a voluntary recall of Mirtazapine tablets, used
for the treatment of major depressive disorder, due to a label error. As per
USFDA disclosures, the bottles labelled as Mirtazapine 7.5 mg may
potentially contain 15 mg tablets.
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Lawsuits, court rulings, settlements, regulatory issues
Sun Pharma's Halol facility receives eight observations from the USFDA
Sun Pharma's Halol facility in Gujarat has received Form 483 with eight
observations from the USFDA after the good manufacturing practices (GMP)
inspection conducted in December 3-13. As per the press release, the
company expects to file a response to USFDA for the observations within 15
days. We are awaiting details of these observations. However, due to this,
the stock is likely to remain under pressure, at least in the near term.
USFDA classifies Lupin’s Tarapur Unit as OAI
Lupin’s API facility at Tarapur has been classified as official action indicated
(OAI) by USFDA. The facility had received three observations after the
USFDA inspection carried out earlier from September 16-20, 2019.
We expect no significant financial impact on existing revenues. However,
the stock will likely remain under pressure due to pending cGMP issues.
Lupin's Nagpur facility receives two observations from USFDA
Lupin's oral solid dosage facility at Nagpur received two Form 483
observations from the prior approval inspection (PAI) conducted by USFDA
from January 6-10, 2020.
Delhi HC bars Cipla, Torrent, 2 others from selling Bristol-Myers anti-
coagulant copy
As per media reports, the Delhi High Court has passed an injunction
restraining Cipla, Torrent, Emcure and Alkem from selling the generic
version of Bristol-Myers' (BMS) patented anti-coagulant, Apixaban. BMS and
partner Pfizer have been selling the drug under the brand name Eliquis.
Cipla's associate files NDA for intravenous pain drug
Avenue Therapeutics (Cipla's associate) has submitted a new drug
application (NDA) to USFDA for intravenous (IV) tramadol to manage
moderate/moderately severe pain in adults in a medically supervised
healthcare setting.
Hikal's Panoli plant receives EIR from USFDA
Hikal's manufacturing facility at Panoli, Gujarat has received establishment
inspection report (EIR) from USFDA classifying the site as no action
indicated (NAI). The cGMP inspection was carried out in September 9-13
with no observations (Form 483) being issued by USFDA.
Glenmark's Baddi receives compliance certificate from European regulator
Glenmark's Baddi unit has received certificate of compliance (for good
manufacturing practices) from the European regulator (State Institute for
Drug Control, Czech Republic) for the inspection conducted in October this
year.
Indoco's sterile facility gets UK MHRA's FMP certificate
Indoco Remedies' sterile manufacturing facility at Verna, Goa (Plant II) has
got UK MHRA’s GMP certification for the inspection conducted from
September 16-20, 2019.
Alembic's Aleor JV receives EIR from USFDA for Gujarat formulation facility
Alembic Pharma’s (Aleor Derma JV) formulation manufacturing facility at
Karkhadi, Gujarat has received an establishment inspection report (EIR) from
USFDA. The facility had received one observation at the end of USFDA
inspection carried out in September 16-20, 2019
Suven's Pashamylaram plant receives EIR from USFDA
Suven's manufacturing facility at Pashamylaram, Hyderabad has received
establishment inspection report (EIR) from USFDA indicating inspection
closure and classifying the site as voluntary action indicated (VAI). USFDA
had carried out renewal inspection of the site between October 21 and
November 1, 2019.
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Cadila's Hyderabad topical facility clears USFDA inspection
No Form 483 observations were issued to Cadila Healthcare's topical
manufacturing facility in Hyderabad at the end of USFDA inspection
conducted from December 16-20, 2019.
NPPA fixes price of seven drug formulations
The national pharmaceutical pricing authority (NPPA) has fixed the retail
price of seven drug formulations under drug price control order (DPCO).
Clobazam tablet (Sun Pharma), Darunavir + Ritonavir tablets (Aurobindo)
are some of the formulations affected.
FDC's Goa plants get UK regulator's GMP certificate
FDC has received GMP certificate from UK Medicines and Healthcare
Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), for two of its oral solid dosage form
facilities situated at L-56/57 & L-121 in Verna, Goa.
Alembic Pharma's Karkhadi facility clears USFDA inspection
Alembic Pharma's (Aleor JV) formulation facility at Karkhadi, Gujarat has
completed USFDA inspection without any Form 483 observations. The
inspection was carried out in January 6-8, 2020.
M&As, demergers, tie-ups, JVs
Biocon, Equillium extend Itolizumab licensing pact
Biocon and Equillium have extended their exclusive licensing agreement for
plaque psoriasis drug (Itolizumab) to include Australia and New Zealand.
Earlier in May, 2017 Equillium had secured exclusive rights to develop and
commercialise Biocon’s novel biologic, itolizumab, for US and Canada.
Aster DM to close all clinics in Philippines
Aster DM has announced plans to shut all of its three clinics in Philippines
by December 31 as they were loss making units. The management has
already inked a pact for asset sale of two of the clinics with Aventus Medical
Care Inc. Revenue of the subsidiary was | 5.27 crore (0.07% of total revenue)
in FY19. Net loss was | 8.18 crore with net worth: ~| (18) crore.
Lupin completes Kyowa divestment in Japan
Lupin has completed the divestiture of its Japanese subsidiary, Kyowa
Pharma to Unison Capital for a consideration of ~| 3700 crore (enterprise
value). This deal generates post tax net cash inflow of ~| 2158 crore. Post
the deal, Lupin's net debt will come down to ~| 1075 crore against ~| 4362
crore earlier.
Ipca, MMV ink pact to co-develop affordable antimalarial
Ipca Labs, Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV) have inked a pact to co-
develop a novel affordable antimalarial 'Atoguanil' (Atovaquone + Proguanil
APIs) for use in malaria-endemic countries.
Mankind, Glenmark ink pact to co-market anti-diabetic drug Remogliflozin
Mankind Pharma and Glenmark have inked a sub-licensing agreement to co-
market anti-diabetes drug Remogliflozin Etabonate in India. Under the
agreement, Mankind will market the SGLT2 inhibitor under its own
trademark while Glenmark will manufacture and supply it to the company.
Aster DM to acquire Wahat Al Aman Home Healthcare in Abu Dhabi
Aster DM has inked a pact through its subsidiary (Healthcare FZC) to acquire
a 100% stake in Wahat Al Aman Home Healthcare, Abu Dhabi for a cash
consideration of ~ | 204 crore. The acquisition is expected to be completed
by January 31, 2020.
HDFC completes acquisition of controlling stake in Apollo Munich
HDFC has completed acquisition of 50.8% stake of Apollo Hospital Group in
Apollo Munich Health Insurance. This transaction will give ~| 300 crore to
Apollo Hospitals and likely reduce pledged shares to ~46% from the current
~63%.
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Dr Reddy's to merge with Dr Reddy’s Holding
Dr Reddy's (DRL) has got shareholder approval for amalgamation of Dr
Reddy's Holdings (DRHL) into DRL.
Suven gets NCLT nod for Suven Pharma demerger
Suven Life (SLSL) has got NCLT approval for scheme of arrangement
between SLSL and Suven Pharmaceuticals (SPL). Under the scheme, the
contract research and manufacturing services division of the company will
be transferred to SPL by way of demerger.
True North to acquire 2.44% stake in Biocon Biologics
PE fund True North will acquire 5,025,463 shares (2.44% stake) of Biocon
Biologics (post-merger with Biocon research), a wholly owned subsidiary of
Biocon for ~| 536 crore (| 1067/share). The acquisition values the subsidiary
at ~| 21450 crore (US$3 billion).
Others
Aster DM board approves share buyback programme
The Aster DM board has approved share buyback of ~57 lakh shares at
| 210 per share for an aggregate amount not exceeding | 120 crore.
Torrent Pharma partially redeems its NCDs
Torrent Pharma has announced partial early redemption of its secured
redeemable non-convertible debentures (NCDs) worth | 100 crore (total -
| 500 crore) and | 142.86 crore (total - | 1000 crore).
Cipla acquires trademark, brand name for anti-diabetic drug in India
Cipla has acquired the brand name & trademark rights for Vysov
(Vildagliptin) & Vysov M (Vildagliptin + Metformin), anti-diabetic drug from
Novartis. The current market size of the drug, a DPP4 (Dipeptidyl peptidase-
4) inhibitor used to control type-2 diabetes in adults, is ~| 818 crore as per
IQVIA MAT November 2019 in India.
Hester Board approves fundraising through equity
Hester Biosciences' board has approved raising funds up to | 150 crore via
issue of equity shares, and/or equity linked securities and/or securities
convertible into equity shares through qualified institutional placement (QIP)
or preferential allotment.
Biocon incorporates Biocon biosphere
Biocon has incorporated a wholly-owned subsidiary 'Biocon Biosphere' on
December 24, 2019. The entity, with paid up capital of | 5 lakh at | 10 per
share, is yet to commence business operations.
Torrent Pharma partially redeems its NCDs
Torrent Pharma has announced partial early redemption of its secured
redeemable non-convertible debentures (NCDs) worth | 167 crore out of
| 500 crore total NCDs.
NCLT rejects Sun Pharma's scheme of arrangement
NCLT has rejected Sun Pharma’s scheme of arrangement between the
company, its Netherlands, US units on the grounds that an outbound
demerger is not envisaged under Section 234 of Companies Act, 2013.
Jubilant Life approves early redemption of NCDs
Jubilant Life's board has approved early redemption of NCDs worth | 745
crore to be paid on January 7, 2020.
ANDA Approvals/Launches
Alembic Pharma has received USFDA approval for the generic version of
Allergan Sales' Viibryd (Vilazodone Hydrochloride) tablets, 10/20/40 mg in
US. The drug, indicated for the treatment of major depressive disorder, has
an estimated market size of US$469 million as per IQVIA MAT September
2019. As per the press release, the company was one of the first ANDA filers
with a Para IV certification and is therefore eligible for 180 days of shared
exclusivity.
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Lupin's partner Concord Biotech has got USFDA approval to market a
generic version of Novartis' Myfortic (Mycophenolic Acid) delayed-release
tablets, 180/360 mg in US. The drug, indicated for prevention of organ
rejection post kidney transplant, had annual sales of ~US$174 million in the
US (IQVIA MAT September 2019).
Lupin has launched the generic equivalent of Sanofi Genzyme's, Hectorol
(Doxercalciferol) injection multiple dose vials, 4 mcg/2 ml in the US. The
drug, indicated for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT)
in adult patients with chronic kidney disease on dialysis, had annual sales of
~US$ 132 million in US (IQVIA MAT October 2019).
Lupin has got USFDA approval for the generic version of Merck's Diprolene
(Betamethasone Dipropionate) ointment, 0.05% in US. The drug, a
corticosteroid indicated for relief from certain skin conditions, had annual
sales of ~US$22 million in the US (IQVIA MAT September 2019). The drug
will be manufactured from the company's Pithampur (Unit 3) facility.
Alembic Pharma has got USFDA approval for the generic version of Alcon
Pharma's Travatan (Travoprost) ophthalmic solution, 0.004% in US. The
drug is indicated to reduce high pressure inside the eye resulting from open
angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension.
Dr Reddy's has launched the generic equivalent of Hospira's Nitropress
(sodium nitroprusside) injection, 50 mg/2 ml single dose vials in US. The
drug, used to reduce blood pressure, had annual sales of ~US$8 million in
the US (IQVIA MAT October 2019).
Indoco Remedies has received USFDA approval for the generic version of
Takeda Pharma's Uloric (Febuxostat) tablets 40/80 mg in the US. As per the
press release, the market size of the drug, used for the treatment of gout
caused due to hyperuricemia, is ~US$500 million in US.
Natco has filed a para IV ANDA for the generic version of Taiho oncology's
Lonsurf (Trifluridine/ Tipiracil) tablets. As per the press release, the product
could receive 180 days exclusivity under certain circumstances. The drug,
indicated for certain forms of colorectal and gastric cancer, had sales of
~US$150 million as per IQVIA MAT December 2018.
Glenmark has got USFDA approval for generic version of Novartis' Exjade
(Deferasirox) tablets for oral suspension, 125/250/500 mg in US. The drugs,
used in treatment of chronic iron overload due to blood transfusions, had
US sales of ~US$106 million (Exjade) as per IQVIA MAT November 2019.
Exhibit 12: One-year forward PE
Source: ICICI Direct Research, Bloomberg
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
x
NSE500 Index NSE Pharma
27% Premium
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Exhibit 13: ICICI Direct coverage universe (Healthcare)
Company I-Direct CMP TP Rating M Cap
Code (|) (|) (| cr) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY19FY20EFY21EFY22E
Ajanta Pharma AJAPHA 1060 1,180 Buy 9249 43.5 43.5 52.3 64.4 24.3 24.3 20.3 16.5 21.8 21.8 20.8 21.9 17.1 17.1 16.0 17.2
Alembic PharmaALEMPHA 561 540 Hold 10580 31.4 31.4 28.2 33.3 17.8 17.8 19.9 16.9 19.6 19.6 15.8 17.5 21.8 21.8 13.9 14.5
Apollo HospitalsAPOHOS 1496 1,800 Buy 20817 17.0 17.0 43.7 68.1 88.2 88.2 34.2 22.0 8.8 8.8 14.8 17.5 7.1 7.1 14.9 19.6
Aurobindo PharmaAURPHA 477 475 Hold 27958 42.1 42.1 55.4 59.5 11.3 11.3 8.6 8.0 15.9 15.9 15.7 16.1 17.7 17.7 16.7 15.4
Biocon BIOCON 282 310 Buy 33822 6.2 6.2 10.6 15.6 45.4 45.4 26.6 18.1 10.9 10.9 16.7 20.9 12.2 12.2 15.7 19.1
Cadila HealthcareCADHEA 258 260 Hold 26382 18.1 18.1 16.6 18.7 14.3 14.3 15.6 13.8 13.0 13.0 11.7 12.4 17.8 17.8 13.5 13.6
Cipla CIPLA 484 520 Hold 39038 18.6 18.6 25.3 30.0 26.1 26.1 19.1 16.2 10.9 10.9 13.6 14.8 10.0 10.0 11.2 11.9
Divi's Lab DIVLAB 1882 1,850 Hold 49960 51.0 51.0 59.1 71.2 36.9 36.9 31.9 26.4 25.5 25.5 22.1 22.8 19.4 19.4 17.0 17.6
Dr Reddy's LabsDRREDD 2938 3,000 Hold 48805 114.8 114.8 140.0 166.7 25.6 25.6 21.0 17.6 11.1 11.1 13.9 16.9 13.6 13.6 12.7 13.5
Glenmark PharmaGLEPHA 342 410 Hold 9663 26.9 26.9 36.7 46.1 12.7 12.7 9.3 7.4 15.3 15.3 15.0 17.0 13.5 13.5 14.0 15.1
Hikal HIKCHE 131 140 Buy 1255 6.3 8.4 9.7 11.7 20.9 15.6 13.5 11.2 12.2 14.3 13.0 14.2 11.5 13.6 14.2 14.8
Ipca Laboratories IPCLAB 1223 1,355 Buy 15448 35.1 35.1 60.7 75.3 34.9 34.9 20.1 16.2 15.0 15.0 19.9 21.2 14.2 14.2 18.0 18.9
Lupin LUPIN 757 810 Hold 34267 16.5 16.5 35.0 37.1 45.7 45.7 21.6 20.4 9.4 9.4 9.9 12.1 5.4 5.4 8.4 8.3
Narayana HrudalayaNARHRU 343 360 Buy 7005 2.9 2.9 9.8 13.3 118.1 118.1 35.1 25.7 7.7 7.7 13.9 16.5 5.5 5.5 14.5 16.7
Natco Pharma NATPHA 626 595 Hold 11388 34.9 34.9 23.7 22.0 17.9 17.9 26.4 28.4 21.3 21.3 12.2 10.5 18.5 18.5 10.0 8.6
Sun Pharma SUNPHA 448 470 Hold 107476 15.9 15.9 20.2 24.7 28.3 28.3 22.2 18.1 10.3 10.3 11.3 12.5 9.2 9.2 9.9 11.3
Syngene Int. SYNINT 314 385 Buy 12562 8.3 8.3 10.0 12.8 38.0 38.0 31.4 24.6 14.8 14.8 13.5 15.8 16.8 16.8 14.4 15.7
Torrent Pharma TORPHA 1899 2,020 Buy 32140 48.9 48.9 74.0 91.8 38.8 38.8 25.7 20.7 14.2 14.2 18.7 21.2 17.5 17.5 19.6 20.6
RoE (%)EPS (|) PE(x) RoCE (%)
Source: ICICI Direct Research, Bloomberg
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RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its
stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Buy, Hold,
Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as
the analysts' valuation for a stock
Buy: >15%;
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -5% to -15%;
Sell: <-15%
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Siddhant Khandekar, Inter CA, Mitesh Shah, CFA, Sudarshan Agarwal, PGDM (Finance) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed
in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to
the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned
in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
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