Recap
Estimating the future
Break
Stress testing assumptions
Making choices under uncertainty
Lunch
Your advice to Executive Mgmt.
Conclusion
What to read
Repetition
Repetition
Repetition
Repetition
Repetition
Repetition
Repetition
Repetition
Repetition
Repetition
RepetitionRepetition
Repetition
Repetition
RepetitionRepetition
Repetition
Customer willingness to pay
Cost of delivering
what the customer buys
Strategy
Implementation happen primarily by changing the allocation of resourcesconsistent with objectives
Any non-human assetof an organization thata manager can deploy
Brands, equipment, IP, licenses, machinery, information, etc.
Money
People Skills
Time Duration, sequence and project choices to which you apply the money and people that you have
Misalignment
Performance Expectations
Delegation Outcome defined
Importance and urgency communicatedReasonable deadline set
Decision rights set
Resources
Accountability Measures
Reporting process / frequency
Handling exceptions
Leadership
To become a more effective leader, I will…
Do more of…_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Do less of…_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Start doing…_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Stop doing…_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Customer willingness to pay
Cost of delivering
what the customer buys
Strategy
Is your strategy “good enough” for the future?
Source: Courtney, Kirkland and Viguerie, 1997
Predictable
Discrete possible futures
Range of futures
No clearfuture
Why this matters
Before
After
Sources of threat and opportunity
•Changing customer preferences
• Competitor actions
• Economic conditions
• Social trends / changes
• Political / legal
• Technological advances
• More or less globalization
Your assessment Effect on FCMB’s customers’ willingness to pay
Effect on FCMB’s cost structure
Source Likeliest factor Threat Opportunity Threat Opportunity
Changing customer preferences
Competitor actions
Economic conditions
Social trends / changes
Political / legal expectations
Technological advances
More / less globalization
Predictable Discrete possible futures
Range of futures
No clearfuture
Overall threat assessment:
Overall opportunity assessment:
1 2 34 5
6
1 2 3 4 5
6
What if…?
What assumptions
have youmade?
Now what?
Postures
Shape the future
Adapt to the future
Reserve the right to play
____________________
Tactics
Scenario planning
Option-based decisions
“Plan B”
Measurement
Customer willingness to pay
Cost of delivering
what the customer buys
Strategy
Priorities for our bank
Advice to FCMB executive management
To achieve excellence as a bank, we recommend that FCMB must…
Do more of…1. ________________________________________2. ________________________________________3. ________________________________________
Do less of…1. ________________________________________2. ________________________________________3. ________________________________________
Start doing…1. ________________________________________2. ________________________________________3. ________________________________________
Stop doing…1. ________________________________________2. ________________________________________3. ________________________________________
Let’s sum up…
You always have choices about building your future
The most importantchoice is to begin.
For your staff, only you can create conditions where their desire for excellence can flourish.
Structural and cultural elements…
that enables an organization to: detect discontinuous change early, interpret the consequences,
and formulate effective responses.
Rene Rohrbeck, 2010
1. Operational Decision Making2. Coaching and Developing Others3. Empowerment/Delegation4. Establishing Strategic Direction5. Influence6. Financial Acumen7. Driving Execution8. Customer Focus
Customer willingness to pay
Cost of delivering
what the customer buys
Strategy
Source: Courtney, Kirkland and Viguerie, 1997
Predictable
Discrete possible futures
Range of futures
No clearfuture
What kind of future awaits?
Leaders influence
What will you NOT tolerate?
Be clear about your values
Choose action
Seek and embrace responsibility
Enable cooperation
Develop others
To become a more effective leader, I will…
Do more of…_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Do less of…_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Start doing…_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Stop doing…_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Managing, Mintzberg, 2009
Execute, Bossidy and Charan, 2002
What Management Is, Magretta, 2002
The Human Equation, Pfeffer, 1998
What to read
Next step: operational excellence
Thank you!
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