David WoodPrincipal, Delta Wisdom

H+UK meetings secretaryBlog: http://dw2blog.com

Twitter: @dw2

Far Beyond Smartphones:Lessons From Disruptive Technology,

Open collaboration, andBreakthrough mobile products

intelligence for profound change

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Q: How quickly can technology progress?

A: If we’re not careful,not quickly enough

We need to be aware ofdeep impediments to technological progress, as well as its deep drivers

In principle,we can solve these impediments...

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If we’re not quick enough

Environmental disaster

Economic disintegration

Extreme terrorism (WMD)

Individual alienation

Radically uncertain

future

Cut backsDisruption

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Convergence of computing & telecommsVision: 1998

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New functionality in smartphones• Colour screens• Cameras – and video recorders• Messaging: SMS, simple email, rich email• Web browsing: Google, Wikipedia, News...• Social networking: Facebook, Twitter, blogs...• Games – including multiplayer games• Maps and location-based services• Buying and selling (tickets, vouchers, cash)• What about the next 3, 5, 10 years?

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Progress accelerators Progress inhibitorsDecreasing price

Increasing reliability

Increasing stylishness

Increasing word of mouth recommendations

Increasing number of useful and/or entertaining mobile services

Increasing ecosystem maturity (virtuous cycle)

Unexpectedly hardtechnical problems

“Chicken-and-egg” coordination problems

Conflicting business models

Platform fragmentation

Poor usability design

Accelerating complexity

?

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Progress (Log)

Time

Core technology (potential)

?

?

Useful applications

Weak environment

Productive environment

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Expertise needed !

TechnologyEcosystem

design

Business models

System integration

Lean processes

Agile project management

User experience

Community engagement

Platform

MotivationExecution

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Turning expertise into action

Knowing DoingGap!

Leaders with a profound hands-on knowledge of the work domain

Bias for plain language & simple conceptsEncourage solutions rather than

inaction: Ask “how”, not just “why”

Ensure actions are completed(rather than being forgotten,or excuses being accepted)

Willing to “learn by doing”:avoid analysis paralysis

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Next generation handheld devices

devices that makeall users smarter:

IQ+=20

+5 yearsx10 raw capability

devices that make society smarter:

GDP+=20%

connectivity++awareness++

interactivity++intelligence++

The mobile devices of the near future will be much more powerful and much more useful than even the best mobile devices of today

?media, health, education, science, government...

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The mobile devices of the near future will be much more powerful and much more useful than even the best mobile devices of today

Next generation handheld devices

?media, health, education, science, government...

Individually targeted content

e-learning materials

Augmented realityDiscover local treasure

Cognitive enhancementTrusted advice, based on observing the user

Huge variety of different apps (“long tail”)

Apps much more numerous than songs

Devices much more numerous than people (50B - 1T...)

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David Wood, Delta WisdomTwitter: @dw2Blog: http://dw2blog.comBook: http://dw2blog.com/the-hplus-agenda/Chapter 3:http://dw2blog.com/the-hplus-agenda/my-personal-journey/

Far Beyond Smartphones:Lessons From Disruptive Technology,

Open collaboration, andBreakthrough mobile products

Some further reading