Evolution of M&E from TDA/SAP to Current Country Strategies: A Science and Policy
Perspective
Laurence Mee
The challenge is how to determine whether or not our actions will bring about sustainable improvements in the state of the environment … and how cost-effective they are.
Contents of this talk
• Delivering the ecosystem approach: adaptive management and the TDA/SAP process
• Scientific challenges and uncertainties for nutrient reduction
• From outputs to outcomes, how do we measure success?
1. Delivering the ecosystem approach: adaptive management
and the TDA/SAP process
The ecosystem approach (a.k.a. Ecosystem Based Management)
The comprehensive integrated management of human activities based on best available scientific knowledge about the ecosystem and its dynamics, in order to take action on influences which are critical to the health of marine ecosystems, thereby achieving sustainable use of ecosystem goods and services and maintenance of ecosystem integrity
[EU-Marine Strategy, 2005]
Key social and ecological system properties
• Boundaries (defined in space and time – may be variable)
• Complexity, non-linearity and uncertainty• Resilience (the amount of change that a system can
undergo and still retain the same controls on function and structure, its capability for self organisation and its capacity for learning and adaptation)
• Discontinuities and thresholds• Interconnectedness
Adaptive Management
Periodic assessment (TDA)• System boundaries (space and time)• Scoping of environmental & social impacts• Research on causality• Review of institutions, laws, policies,
economic instruments
Robust, quantitative, Environmental state indicators to measure levels of impact
Studies of initial conditions
Regulations and complianceStatus and trendsF
ast
feed
bac
k lo
op
Short-term targets
(Typically valid 5 yrs)
EcoQOs(typically valid for 1
decade)
Regular monitoring (all indicators)
Stress reduction and process indicators to measure socio-economic drivers, pressures and project performance
Slo
w
feed
bac
k lo
op Eco/WR QOs
(Typically valid for 1 decade)
PRESSUREMeans by which at least one Driver causes or contributes
to a change in State.
DRIVERActivity or process
intended to enhance human welfare.
IMPACTA change in human
welfare attributable to a change in State.
STATEAttribute(s) of the
natural environment that reflect its
integrity as regards a specified issue.
External Variability
RESPONSEAn initiative intended to reduce at least one
Impact.
HUMAN DOMAIN ECOSYSTEMS
A Systems Approach
The Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA)
• Is recommended for most OP8 and OP9 projects
• Is a scientific and technical fact-finding analysis
• It should be an objective assessment and not a negotiated document
• It acts as a diagnostic tool for measuring the effectiveness of SAP implementation
Strategic Action Programme (SAP)
• A SAP is a negotiated policy document
• It establishes clear priorities for action to resolve the priority transboundary waters problems
• It identifies policy, legal and institutional reforms and investments needed to address the priority transboundary waters problems
• The preparation of a SAP is a cooperative process among key stakeholders in the countries of the region.
How long to achieve environmental outcomes?
2. Scientific challenges and
uncertainties for nutrient reduction
Nutrients are transferred by complex processes
Nitrogen pathways, Wade et al., 2002
Forsman et al., 2003
Runoff depends on multiple factors including:
Fixed:
•Morphology
•Soil type
•Aquifer hydrology
•River length and flow
Variable: (unmanageable)
•Rainfall
Variable (manageable)
•Fertiliser application rate
•Crop (and/or grazing) type
•Farm management
•Waste disposal
•River and wetland alterations
•Non-agricultural sources
•Urbanisation
Garnier et al., 2002
e.g. RIVER STRAHLER, Billen & Garnier, 2000
Several alternative models for nutrient transfer
Processes and nutrient budgets on the Black Sea shelf
Strength and diversity of trophic linkages related to ‘value’ and ‘status
Consequences to the Black Sea
Application of indicators: Eutrophication
System indicators
• Benthic mass mortality
• Pelagic/demersal fish catch
• Benthic hypoxia
• Trophic Transfer efficiency
• Fodder/non-fodder zooplankton
• Diatoms/non-diatoms
• Chlorophyll (satellite)
• Ratio of new/regenerated nutrients
• Winter nutrient stock
• Land-based discharge loads
Complexity
*
*
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Tro
phic
eff
ects
Pre
ssu
res
Maj
or c
han
ge Specificity
*****
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**
Our ability to measure success depends on being able to measure
change
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
BB BP BS DS GF GR KA
Sub-basin of Baltic Sea
10
3 t
on
s P
/ye
ar
C riverine & coast
P riverine & coast
C atmospheric
P atmospheric
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
dep
th l
imit
(m
)
Baltic Proper
south-western Baltic
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Bio
mas
s
Baltic Sea (average)
Bothnian Bay
Bothnian Sea
Baltic Proper
Pristine (P) and Contemporary (C) Phosphate levels
Eelgrass
Zoobenthos
Source: ELME 2005
Huge uncertainties in historical nutrient data in the Danube-Black Sea
3. From outputs to outcomes, how do
we measure success?
Outcomes of economic collapse in the Danube - Black Sea
1979 2002
Shading of Zernov’s Phyllophora field
0 +
1 +
2 +
3 +
4 +
5 +
6 +
7 +
8 +
9 +
10 +
1989
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Year class
%
04VA, 45m0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+
7 +
8+ 9+
10+
1988*
0
20
40
60
80
100
Year class
%
49DN, 15m
1988*
1989
1992
2003
0 +
1 +
2 +
3 +
4 +
5 +
6 +
7 +
8+ 9+10
+
1989
0
20
40
60
80
100
Year class
%
56PH, 25m
0 +
2 +
4 +
6 +
8+
10+
1989
0
20
40
60
80
100
Year class
%
48DN, 25m
0 +
1 +
2 +
3 +
4 +
5 +
6 +
7 +
8 +
9 +
10
+
1989
20030
20
40
60
80
Year class
%
45ZB, 25m
Decreasing mussel mortality = recovery
Data from Shurova (unpublished)
Areas where change influencing eutrophication will be expected
Change Influence Depends on…
1. Diffuse nutrient supply
Particularly on the supply of nitrogen (but also phosphorus)
Agricultural development pattern. Implementation of the CFP. Biofuels
2. Point sources of nutrients
Supply of phosphorus (also nitrogen)
Sewerage and waste water treatment. Intensive livestock
3. Fishing pressure Trophic cascading. Overfishing will not allow system recovery
Development of effective fisheries convention and marine protected areas
1. & 2. Nutrient ratios
Blooms of undesirable species
Sensible balance between policies
Specific targets for eutrophicationSpecific targets for eutrophication
Long term objective (EcoQO)
“to take measures to reduce the loads of nutrients and hazardous substances discharged to such levels necessary to permit Black Sea ecosystems to recover to conditions similar to those observed in the 1960s”
First operational target
“urgent measures should be taken in the wider Black Sea Basin in order to avoid that the loads of nutrients and hazardous substances discharged into the Seas exceed those that existed in the mid 1990s (these discharges are only incompletely known)”
Memorandum of Understanding between the International Commission for the Protection of the Black Sea (ICPBS) and the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) on common strategic goals. Signed in Brussels, 26 November 2001.
Environmental Quality as a concept reflects human values
Target values related to freshwater quality that meets with the definition under class I (sustaining the ecological function) of UN/ECE
Our country's environmental problems can be solved without any international agreements
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
TOTAL
Bulgaria [1997]
Romania [1998]
Russian Federation [1995]
Turkey [1996]
Ukraine [1996]
%
Strongly disagree
Disagree
Agree
Strongly agree
Peoples values matter…
Source of data: World Survey of Values, 2006
The Achilles Heel of Adaptive Management
Periodic assessment (TDA)• System boundaries (space and time)• Scoping of environmental & social impacts• Research on causality• Review of institutions, laws, policies,
economic instruments
Robust, quantitative, Environmental state indicators to measure levels of impact
Studies of initial conditions
Regulations and complianceStatus and trendsF
ast
feed
bac
k lo
op
Short-term targets
(Typically valid 5 yrs)
EcoQOs(typically valid for 1
decade)
Regular monitoring (all indicators)
Stress reduction and process indicators to measure socio-economic drivers, pressures and project performance
Slo
w
feed
bac
k lo
op Eco/WR QOs
(Typically valid for 1 decade)
How do we know when we reach institutional sustainability?
Two tests for project success
1. The regular and fully transparent provision of relevant, quality assured, monitoring data
Data gap Commitment gap
Institutional sustainability
Reasons given for not implementing monitoring
Legitimate (GEF can help with foundational support)•Lack of planning and networking•Insufficient training•Inadequate capital equipment
Non-legitimate•Institutional fragmentation•Information = Power (?)•Long term commitment to monitoring is politically unattractive•Disputed data property rights•Culture of secrecy
Test 2. How much reduction of nutrients can be achieved per unit cost?
•Complex issue requiring trade-offs and genuine international cooperation.
•Best practice solutions may not be replicable from country to country.
•Achieving sustainability is not the same as dividing investment financing equally between countries
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