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Evangelism Mathematics

By Robert H. MunsonPhilippine Baptist Theological Seminary

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A Story of Two Evangelists: Jun and Paulo

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Jun's Strategy Jun decided to work alone doing

mass evangelism in different communities. He would share the gospel and invite people to come forward and pray to receive Christ.

Then he moves to a new location, doing no follow-up with them.

He is very successful with this strategy, averaging approximately 1000 confessions of faith per day, 365 days a year.

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Paulo's Strategy Paulo is not nearly as active as

Jun. He shares the gospel with very few. He leads two people to Christ per year.

During the year, he spends all of his time and energy in discipling/mentoring them.

After the year is up, Paulo will find two new people to lead to Christ and work with them… while his disciples do the same.

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Comparison Jun leads 1000 people to Christ per day, or

365,000 per year, while Paulo only leads 2 per year.

Jun is very busy, while Paulo, truthfully seems rather lazy.

Paulo puts most of his effort into discipling his converts so they have the training and motivation to do as he does. Jun does no discipleship or follow-up.

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Math Time Jun's numbers are pretty simple. Since he

reaches 1,000 people per day, he reaches 365,000 per year.

By year two he has reached 730,000, and 1,095,000 after 3 years.

Truly few if any can make such a claim. However, few if any of his converts grow in their

faith since no discipleship was done and no training to do as Jun does.

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Math Time Paulo has led only 2 to Christ after one year. After the 2nd year, he is doing a bit better. He

now has 2 from the first year and 2 from the 2nd year, plus the 2 from the first year have now led 4 people to Christ and discipled them.

That is 2+2+4=8 For the 3rd year, it is 8+2+16=26

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More MathAfter Year... Jun Paulo

1 365,000 22 730,000 83 1,095,000 264 1,460,000 80

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More MathAfter Year... Jun Paulo

1 365,000 22 730,000 83 1,095,000 264 1,460,000 80

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More MathAfter Year... Jun Paulo

5 1,825,000 2426 2,190,000 7287 2,555,000 2,1868 2,920,000 6,560

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More MathAfter Year... Jun Paulo

9 3,285,000 19,68210 3,650,000 59,04811 4,015,000 177,14612 4,380,000 531,440

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More MathAfter Year... Jun Paulo

13 4,745,000 1,594,32214 5,110,000 4,782,96815 5,475,000 14,348,90816 5,840,000 43,046,720

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If both Jun and Paulo followed their own strategies for 16 years, Paulo would actually be about 7 times more effective than Jun.

Although Paulo appeared to be the lazy one, he actually would be far more effective over time.

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But What About Objections? How realistic is this? Who is to say that

Paulo successfully ends the year with discipled believers who will do exactly what he has been doing?

And who is to say that Jun will have ZERO converts who would become reproducing Christians?

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Ultimately, that is not the point

#1. We are using numbers based on proposed strategies. One strategy intentionally develops a team of continuously reproducing Christians. The other strategy is to have an evangelism strategy that is dependent on the tireless work of one person.

The actual results may be different, but the anticipated trends would be the same.

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Ultimately, that is not the point #2. More importantly, Paulo's strategy creates

ministerial independence, while Jun's strategy creates ministerial dependence.

Suppose that both Jun and Paulo stopped ministering after 5 years (maybe they died, or maybe they moved). The anticipated new converts in the 6th year would be 0 for Jun. For Paulo, the anticipated number would be 160,598. That is the 160,600-2 (missing would be the 2 that Paulo would have been discipling that year.

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But There is a Better Way

The CPM model seeks to combine the strengths of the both methods. (CPM is “Church Planting Movement”) The basic principles of CPM can be used for other forms of outreach than simply churchplanting.)

Rapid “seed sowing” is used to get things started fast, as well as to find those who are willing and able to be trained to join the task.

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What Does it Look Like?

A. Rapid up-front seed sowing. B. Filtering/consolidation (levels of commitment) C. Develop core group of committed disciples D. Expand exponentially from disciples repeating the


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Why is it better than either the methodologies of Jun and Paulo?

It has the intentional discipleship that leads to exponential outreach, unlike Jun.

It has the rapid seed sowing and filtering that increases the likelihood of finding solid disciples committed to ministry.

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Lessons Strategies such as CPM, utilizing discipled laypersons,

are likely to be more successful than classic churchplanting strategies that are dependent on professional experts… because one is exponential, while the other is linear.

Evangelism and Discipleship that creates new iterations of Evangelism and Discipleship is critical to this exponential growth.

Methods that move ministerial experts from vital to (relatively) unnecessary, are far more sustainable than ones where these experts are doing all of the work.