European Forest Sector Outlook Study
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
The UNECE Timber Committee (TC) and the FAO European
Forestry Commission (EFC) work together to promote sustainable
forest management in Europe, the CIS and North America
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
•Analyses past trends and future outlook for the supply and demand of the goods and services provided by the European forests•Provides a more detailed analysis of the outlook for the centrally planned economies, non-wood forest products and services, forest management and policy•Special emphasis on cross-sectoral policy linkages•Available in paper and on the web
The Study
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
The EFSOS Region
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Structure of presentation
•Main past trends•Outlook•Issues•Follow-up
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
NECE/FAO Timber Branch
Main trends: the European Forest
•Area expanding•Harvest well below increment•Growing stock constantly rising•Plantation and forest improvement programmes•Problems for resource mobilisation in some countries (small owners)
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNCE/FAO Timber Branch
Main trends: Forest products and services
•Collapse in eastern Europe and CIS, followed by (partial) recovery•Reconstituted panels have grown faster than sawnwood•=> more demand for small wood, recovered materials: in western Europe, in 2000, industrial roundwood < 50% of raw material used•Non-wood products equivalent to perhaps 10-25% of value of total forestry production, services the same•Intensification of international trade•Long term decline in prices
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Sta
nd
ing
sale
s p
rice
(in
EU
R p
er C
UM
at
2000
pri
ces) Finland - pine pulpwood Finland - spruce pulpwood
Finland - birch pulpwood Sweden - all species and sizes
ROUNDWOOD PRICES FALLING
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Indu
stri
al r
ound
woo
d co
nsum
ptio
n as
a p
ropo
rtio
n of
to
tal e
stim
ated
con
sum
ptio
n of
woo
d ra
w m
ater
ials
WesternEurope
CIScountries
EasternEurope
INDUSTRIAL ROUNDWOOD AS % OF TOTAL FIBRE CONSUMPTION
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Some other trends…
•Increased emphasis on environmental policies and sustainable development at all levels•Changes in ways government works in the sector: pressures for efficiency and clarity etc.
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Main policies influencing the forest sector
•Greater emphasis on biodiversity and nature conservation•Agricultural, rural and regional development policies•Consequences of the transition process•Globalisation, innovation and market structures•Energy, environment, climate changeSource: Thoroe et al. (2004)
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Some rough orders of magnitude:
(EUR billion, western Europe/EU)•Value of wood production: 9.9•Value of non-wood forest products (excl. nuts): 1.5•Value of forest recreation: 2.6•Incentives from the state for forestry (national + EU, including fiscal measures and grants, 11 countries): 6.0 (wood production in those countries = 7)Source: EFSOS sections 2.10, 2.11
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
OUTLOOK
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
DRIVING FORCES
•Continued economic growth, but slower than in the past (2.2% p.a.)•Convergence of living standards in west and east•Ageing population•3 scenarios: baseline, “conservation”, “integration”
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Main policy relevant forecasts (1)
•Recycling and residue use will continue to expand•Renewable energy policies will increase demand for wood•Europe’s forest resource will continue to expand•Fellings will remain below annual increment in Europe
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Main policy relevant forecasts (2)
•Forest products trade will intensify further•Economic viability of forest management will remain threatened•Forestry sector institutions will continue to evolve rapidly
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Am
ount
(in
mil
lion
cub
ic m
etre
s W
RM
E)
Paper and paperboard
Net pulp exports
Reconstituted panels
Sawnwood, plywood and veneer
Other industrial roundwood
Demand for wood in EUROPE (total), by product
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Am
ount
(in
mil
lion
cub
ic m
etre
s W
RM
E)
Paper and paperboard
Net pulp exports
Reconstituted panels
Sawnwood, plywood and veneer
Other industrial roundwood
DEMAND FOR FOREST PRODUCTS, WESTERN EUROPE
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Am
oun
t (i
n m
illi
on c
ub
ic m
etre
s W
RM
E)
Recovered paper
Net pulp imports
Industrial roundwood
Total wood and fibre requirement
FIBRE SUPPLY, WESTERN EUROPE
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Am
oun
t (i
n m
illi
on c
ub
ic m
etre
s W
RM
E)
Recovered paper
Net pulp imports
Industrial roundwood
Total wood and fibre requirement
FIBRE SUPPLY FOR PAPER, SAWNWOOD AND PANELS, TOTAL EUROPE
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Other paper and paperboard
Woodfuel
Wood chips and particles
Wood residues
Plywood and veneer
Sawnwood
Fibreboard Particleboard Wood pulp
Recovered wood products Other fibre
pulpRecovered
paper
Recovered fibre pulp
Mechanical wood pulp
Semi-chem. wood pulp
Chemical wood pulp
Dissolving pulp
NewsprintPrinting and writing paper
Roundwood
Other industrial roundwood
Pulpwood, round & split
Sawlogs and veneer logs
COMPLEX RAW MATERIAL FLOWS
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Was
tep
aper
rec
over
y as
a p
rop
orti
on o
f
to
tal
pap
er a
nd
pap
erb
oard
con
sum
pti
on
WesternEurope
RECOVERY RATE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
83.894.4 100.7
83.892.9 97.0
16.2
17.919.0
16.1
17.618.38.6
9.39.7
8.6
9.29.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020
Gro
win
g st
ock
(in
bil
lion
m3 o
.b.)
CIS countries Western Europe Eastern Europe
Baseline scenario Integration scenario
GROWING STOCK, BY SCENARIO
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020
Fel
lin
gs a
s a
pro
por
tion
of
ann
ual
in
crem
ent
CIS countries Western Europe Eastern Europe
Baseline scenario Integration scenario
HARVEST WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW INCREMENT
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Policy recommendations: general
•Necessity of a cross-sectoral approach•Sector should be proactive on climate change issues (analysis, communication)•Improve monitoring of SFM•Governments work together on forest law enforcement and governance
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Policy recommendations: markets
•Stimulate sound use of wood•Balanced implementation of wood energy policies•Develop the region’s comparative advantages
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Policy recommendations: SFM
•Improve economic viability of forest management in Europe•Pay attention to employment and work force issues (age, lack of skills, low status)•Control forest fires and intensify international cooperation on fires
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Policy recommendations: international cooperation
•Address threats to SFM in Balkans and CIS•Devote policy attention to consequences of shift in balance to the east•Share experiences on institutional change to countries in transition•Intensify input to global level: promote European experience in SFM
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
EFSOS follow up suggestions
•Stimulate EFSOS based policy discussion at national and regional levels•Stress importance of cross-sectoral dimension, explain/discuss issues•Improve understanding of energy outlook issues, tradeoffs•????
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Thank you
•http://www.unece.org/trade/timber•[email protected]
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
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