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Estimation of Global Solar Radiation (GSR)over Egypt
جلا قلا رتؤممةدجلاو ةيسعلا نطلبىبر
Eng. Taha Abdo
Mohamed
M.Sc cand idate Ain Shams Univerc i ty
Abbass ia, Cairo 11517,
Egypt
A. Prof. Dr. Mohamed EL-
Shimy
Electr ical Power and Machin es Dept.Ain Shams Univerc i ty
Abbassia, Cairo 11517, Egypt
مؤمل اقت اية وادة بطن اعبى مكز دراسث ال
جمعت أسط
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Main objective
Determine the best mathematical modelsfor estimating the GSR on a horizontal
surface over Egypt.
Evaluation most of the available modelsfor a specific set of sites, 6 sites, inEgypt.
● Egypt is divided into a set of regions eachone described by the best found GSR model.
● The determined regions and its models arebased on the results of 1st stage
● The regional best model determined basedon the best model for the sites, 4 sites,
contained in a specific region
1st
stage
2nd
stage
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Methodology
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NASA website
Monthly average daily GSR on a horizontal surface , kW/m²/day
Monthly average daily extraterrestrial radiation, kW/m²/day
Monthly average daily hours of bright sunshine, hour
Monthly average day length, hour
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Monthly averaged maximum and minimum air temperature, °C
Monthly averaged wind speed at 50 m above earth surface, m/sec Monthly averaged humidity ratio at10 meters above earth surface,%
Monthly averaged relative humidity, %
Meteorological observations parameters
Solar Atlas of Egypt
Such as
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Evaluation criteria
correlation coefficient ()
- A measure of the strength of linear dependence between two
variables, giving a value between +1 and −1 inclusive.
Sum of Squared Errors (SSE )
-A measure of the deviations of the actual values from the predicted
values, within the sample used for estimation
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Consequently,
A multi-objective criterion is used to determine the bestmodel for a specific location.
The objectives are maximization of the correlation () and
minimization of the SSE between observed & estimatedvalues of GSR in a specific site.
The best model is characterized by a higher () and a
lower SSE in comparison between the rest of the models.
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Results 1 stage
Table 1:The best models for a subset of six sites
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Figure 2: The best models for a subset of six sites
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Best models
Kilic & Ozturk model (K&O)
GOB(1) model
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Results 2 stage
Table 2:The best models for a subset of four sites
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Figure 3: The best models for a subset of F64R
sites
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Conclusion The whole lands of Egypt are divided into two regions
from the GSR estimation perspective
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Recommendations
With available limited number of ground stations in Egypt
for measuring the GSR, it is possible with given models toestimate the GSR for any location in Egypt.
This work is beneficial for the design of all solar-energy
related projects such as :-
• solar based power plants
• solar based irrigation water pumping systems
• solar based water desalination systems.
The outcomes of this work are valuable for solar resource
assessment and other meteorological studies.
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