Equity SNAPSHOT Tuesday, June 13, 2017
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
MARKET NEWS
Macroeconomy
▪ BI expects 2017 inflation to 4.36%
Sector ▪ Consumer sector: Garuda Food targets 25% sales growth this
year Corporate
▪ Agung Podomoro: records IDR500bn of marketing sales up to June 2017
▪ Ciputra Development: launches four new projects
▪ Jababeka to start designing the Morotai Special Economic Zone ▪ Waskita Karya: Plans to divest a 22% stake in Waskita Toll Road
KEY INDEX
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 5,691 0.3 7.5 228
Thailand 1,564 (0.2) 1.4 910
Philippines 7,990 0.4 16.8 153
Malaysia 1,789 0.2 9.0 508
Singapore 3,248 (0.2) 12.8 685
Regional China 3,140 (0.6) 1.2 33,059
Hong Kong 25,708 (1.2) 16.9 11,292
Japan 19,872 (0.2) 4.0 891
Korea 2,369 0.5 16.9 5,118
Taiwan 10,110 (0.9) 9.3 2,976
India 31,096 (0.5) 16.8 509
NASDAQ 6,175 (0.5) 14.7 137,119
Dow Jones 21,236 (0.2) 7.5 12,090
CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,308 (0.2) 0.2 1.2
SBI rate % 5.90 - - (1.3)
10y Gov Indo bond 6.90 (0.0) (0.2) (1.1)
HARD COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 79 - 7.9 (10.1)
Gold US$/toz 1,265 (0.1) 3.0 9.8
Nickel US$/mt.ton 8,736 (2.1) (5.8) (12.3)
Tin US$/mt.ton 19,180 1.3 (4.0) (9.5)
SOFT COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,056 2.5 3.2 (4.3)
Corn US$/mt.ton 137 (2.9) 1.3 5.9
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 46 0.3 (3.4) (14.0)
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 48 0.2 (4.8) (14.8)
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,694 (1.6) (2.8) (15.8)
Rubber USd/kg 142 1.3 (4.2) (26.4)
Pulp US$/tonne 879 N/A 4.0 8.7
Coffee US$/60kgbag 125 0.3 4.1 (13.7)
Sugar US$/MT 410 (1.6) (7.2) (21.7)
Wheat US$/ton 119 0.7 1.0 0.7
Source: Bloomberg
Equity SNAPSHOT Tuesday, June 13, 2017
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
MACROECONOMY BI expects 2017 inflation to reach 4.36%
Bank Indonesia Governor, Agus Martowardojo, expects inflation in 2017 to reach 4.36% yoy, or higher than the rate at the end of 2016 of 3.02%. Most of the inflation is due to heightened pressures in the administered prices
group. The 2017 inflation forecast of 4.36% made in May is lower than the forecast made in April of 4.6%. The central bank believes that inflationary pressures from administered prices - especially from hikes in most 900 VA
electricity household tariffs - will not be as severe as previously thought. (Kontan)
SECTOR
Consumer sector: Garuda Food targets 25% sales growth this year Garuda Food targets 25% yoy sales growth this year, supported by increasing demand for biscuits and snacks.
The company reported that 1Q17 revenues were up by 18% yoy. Approaching Lebaran, the company expects
sales to increase by 25% yoy. Garuda Food is optimistic that it will meet this year’s target through production improvements in addition to better product quality, product innovation and more effective promotions. Previously,
the Indonesian Association of Food and Beverages (GAPMMI) estimated that the industry would book 8.5% yoy growth, or similar to last year’s growth of 8.4% yoy. (Bisnis Indonesia)
CORPORATE
Agung Podomoro: records IDR500bn of marketing sales up to June 2017
Agung Podomoro (APLN) has obtained marketing sales of IDR500bn up to June 2017. The sales have been supported by several projects, namely Podomoro Golf View, Podomoro Deli Medan, Borneo Bay City, and Orchard Park. The
sales up to June are only 15% of the company’s full year target of IDR3.5tn. Nonetheless, the company is still optimistic that it can achieve this year’s marketing sales target, supported by the sale of mixed-use projects in
Medan. The construction progress of this project has now reached the topping-off stage. (Kontan, Bisnis Indonesia)
Ciputra Development: launches four new projects
Ciputra Development (CTRA) is set to launch four new projects in 2H17, namely the Newton 2 (23,000sqm), the Suites Apartment (1,300sqm), Citra Plaza Batam (70,000sqm) and Sadana Ciputra Beach Resort in Bali. (Bisnis
Indonesia)
Jababeka to start designing the Morotai Special Economic Zone
Jababeka (KIJA), through its subsidiary Morotai Jababeka, has started to design the Morotai Special Economic Zone. According to KIJA’s management, the company has acquired 60% of the land or around 1,250ha. The investment
needed to develop this economic zone is expected to reach IDR6.8tn. To develop the project, KIJA is seeking a strategic partner. In the first phase of the development, KIJA will build 10,000 mid-class residential units and 10,000
hotel rooms. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Waskita Karya: Plans to divest a 22% stake in Waskita Toll Road
Waskita Karya (WSKT) plans to conduct a tender offer for the divestment of a 22% stake in Waskita Toll Road (WTR) and several toll road assets. The tender will open on 15 Aug 17. So far, at least 14 investors have
expressed an interest in participating in the tender offer. WSKT hopes to raise IDR7.0-8.0tr from the sale of a
22% stake in WTR and the sale of 4 toll roads. The toll roads, which will be offered through private placement, are: Kanci – Pejagan, Pejagan – Pemalang, Pemalang – Bantang, and Probolinggo – Pasuruan. WSKT currently
has a 70.9% stake in WTR with a 16.8% stake owned by Taspen and a 12.4% stake held by SMI. (Investor Daily)
MARKET NEWS
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
DANAREKSA VALUATION GUIDE
Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap
Target Rp Bn 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2017 2018
Danareksa Universe 3,481,237 186,408 213,487 285.3 326.7 16.2% 14.5% 18.7 16.3 20.9 18.7 2.8 2.5 15.7 16.2
Auto 353,219 18,975 22,003 381.6 442.5 25.2% 16.0% 18.6 16.1 13.4 11.3 2.3 2.0 12.8 13.4
Astra International HOLD 8,725 8,400 353,219 18,975 22,003 469 544 449 531 25.2% 16.0% 18.6 16.1 13.4 11.3 2.3 2.0 22.4 12.8 13.4
Banks 1,231,163 88,057 103,310 864.2 1,013.9 18.1% 17.3% 14.0 11.9 2.1 1.9 16.0 16.6
BCA BUY 17,750 18,300 437,626 22,682 25,017 920 1,015 920 1,015 10.1% 10.3% 19.3 17.5 N/A N/A 3.4 3.0 N/A 18.8 18.0
BNI HOLD 6,450 6,700 120,284 14,049 16,825 753 902 753 902 23.9% 19.8% 8.6 7.1 N/A N/A 1.2 1.0 N/A 15.0 15.6
BRI BUY 14,625 15,000 360,786 30,046 33,756 1,218 1,368 1,218 1,368 14.7% 12.3% 12.0 10.7 N/A N/A 2.1 1.9 N/A 19.1 18.8
Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 2,570 2,400 27,216 2,941 3,120 278 295 278 295 12.3% 6.1% 9.3 8.7 N/A N/A 1.3 1.2 N/A 14.6 14.0
Bank Mandiri HOLD 12,225 11,500 285,250 18,340 24,591 786 1,054 786 1,054 32.8% 34.1% 15.6 11.6 N/A N/A 1.7 1.6 N/A 11.7 14.2
Cement 152,406 5,871 5,904 301 303 -32.1% 0.6% 26.0 25.8 13.6 13.4 2.5 2.4 9.9 9.5
Indocement SELL 17,950 13,000 66,078 2,514 2,484 683 675 677 669 -35.1% -1.2% 26.3 26.6 14.3 14.4 2.4 2.4 net cash 9.5 9.1
Semen Indonesia HOLD 9,650 8,600 57,239 3,169 3,238 534 546 508 518 -29.9% 2.2% 18.1 17.7 9.5 9.3 1.9 1.8 7.4 10.7 10.3
Semen Baturaja SELL 2,940 390 29,089 188 182 19 19 19 18 -27.3% -3.3% 153.5 158.8 62.6 59.6 8.9 8.6 17.9 5.9 5.5
Cigarettes 595,096 20,433 21,966 173 186 5.1% 7.5% 29.1 27.1 19.8 18.4 7.5 6.9 26.6 26.4
Gudang Garam HOLD 77,750 72,900 149,598 7,303 7,787 3,796 4,047 3,796 4,047 9.4% 6.6% 20.5 19.2 12.7 11.8 3.3 3.0 34.0 17.3 16.3
HM Sampoerna HOLD 3,830 3,850 445,498 13,130 14,180 113 122 112 120 2.9% 8.0% 33.9 31.4 25.1 23.1 12.8 12.4 net cash 38.1 40.0
Construction 132,640 8,734 11,125 117 149 27.3% 27.4% 15.2 11.9 8.8 7.0 2.1 1.8 14.7 16.3
Wijaya Karya BUY 2,210 2,800 19,824 1,225 1,783 137 199 137 199 21.0% 45.5% 16.2 11.1 5.9 4.2 1.6 1.4 net cash 10.4 13.7
Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 3,090 5,700 19,158 1,295 1,570 209 253 233 283 33.9% 21.2% 14.8 12.2 7.3 6.0 3.0 2.5 net cash 22.5 22.6
Adhi Karya BUY 2,200 3,500 7,834 986 1,292 292 382 303 404 40.2% 31.1% 7.5 5.8 4.4 3.5 1.0 0.8 8.4 13.7 14.1
Waskita Karya BUY 2,210 3,700 29,998 2,344 3,501 173 258 173 258 38.9% 49.3% 12.8 8.6 9.2 5.9 2.3 1.9 16.3 19.5 24.1
Waskita Beton BUY 480 770 12,653 788 954 30 36 30 36 44.1% 21.1% 16.1 13.3 10.4 7.6 1.7 1.5 net cash 10.7 11.9
Wika Beton BUY 665 1,100 5,796 349 420 42 50 42 50 28.3% 20.2% 15.9 13.2 10.1 8.5 2.2 1.9 17.1 13.7 14.8
Jasa Marga BUY 5,150 6,300 37,378 1,747 1,606 257 236 261 240 4.4% -8.1% 20.0 21.8 12.2 11.2 2.8 2.6 162.3 14.0 11.6
Consumer 583,914 17,509 19,958 338 385 11.7% 14.0% 33.3 29.3 22.5 19.9 8.7 7.8 27.5 28.0
Indofood CBP BUY 8,475 9,800 98,835 4,002 4,502 343 386 343 386 11.2% 12.5% 24.7 22.0 15.3 14.0 4.8 4.3 net cash 20.4 20.5
Indofood HOLD 8,475 8,650 74,414 4,506 5,098 517 580 512 569 9.2% 12.2% 16.4 14.6 13.3 11.8 2.4 2.2 47.2 14.9 15.5
Unilever HOLD 47,200 47,000 360,136 7,278 8,392 954 1,100 954 1,100 13.9% 15.3% 49.5 42.9 34.7 30.3 64.4 53.7 27.1 141.4 136.5
Kino Indonesia SELL 2,190 2,800 3,129 191 212 134 149 134 149 5.4% 11.2% 16.4 14.7 9.9 9.1 1.5 1.4 12.2 9.5 9.8
Mayora Indah HOLD 2,120 2,100 47,400 1,532 1,755 69 78 69 82 13.1% 14.5% 30.9 27.0 16.2 14.4 6.5 5.4 24.4 22.8 21.8
Healthcare 87,893 2,796 3,137 106 119 8.6% 12.4% 31.4 28.0 25.1 22.1 5.5 4.9 18.7 18.6
Kalbe Farma BUY 1,535 1,750 71,953 2,507 2,811 53 60 53 60 9.0% 12.1% 28.7 25.6 23.7 21.0 5.4 4.7 net cash 19.8 19.7
Kimia Farma SELL 2,870 1,510 15,940 289 326 52 59 52 59 8.1% 12.7% 55.1 48.9 33.1 28.5 6.5 5.8 24.6 12.4 12.6
Heavy Equipment 100,993 6,468 7,242 1,734 1,941 29.3% 12.0% 15.6 13.9 6.4 5.3 2.3 2.1 15.8 15.9
United Tractors HOLD 27,075 23,500 100,993 6,468 7,242 1,734 1,941 1,734 1,941 29.3% 12.0% 15.6 13.9 6.4 5.3 2.3 2.1 net cash 15.8 15.9
Mining 141,158 9,432 11,138 119 140 43.6% 18.1% 15.0 12.7 5.5 4.9 1.2 1.2 8.1 9.3
Adaro Energy BUY 1,540 1,900 49,258 4,282 4,588 134 143 134 143 18.4% 7.2% 11.5 10.7 4.0 3.5 1.2 1.2 1.5 10.3 10.8
Timah BUY 775 1,250 5,772 371 384 50 52 50 52 109.5% 3.5% 15.6 15.0 6.9 6.2 1.0 0.9 27.0 6.4 6.3
Vale Indonesia HOLD 1,890 2,800 18,780 380 540 38 54 38 54 1412.0% 42.0% 49.4 34.8 6.3 6.0 0.8 0.8 net cash 1.6 2.3
Aneka Tambang HOLD 705 900 16,942 (147) 207 (6) 9 (6) 9 -52.0% -240.6% (115.0) 81.8 20.3 18.1 0.9 0.9 27.0 (0.8) 1.2
Bukit Asam BUY 11,050 14,500 25,461 2,498 3,004 1,149 1,382 1,149 1,382 72.7% 20.3% 9.6 8.0 6.5 5.5 2.1 1.8 net cash 22.9 23.2
Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 17,100 15,800 19,322 1,661 1,913 1,470 1,693 1,470 1,693 21.8% 15.2% 11.6 10.1 4.4 4.1 1.6 1.6 net cash 14.1 15.9
Harum Energy SELL 2,080 2,000 5,624 388 501 144 185 144 185 55.8% 29.1% 14.5 11.2 4.1 3.1 1.4 1.4 net cash 9.9 12.3
Property 107,750 7,238 6,909 60 58 40.6% -4.6% 14.9 15.6 10.5 11.0 1.7 1.6 12.3 10.6
Alam Sutera HOLD 318 380 6,249 1,129 1,026 57 52 56 59 121.9% -9.2% 5.5 6.1 7.9 8.7 0.8 0.7 74.5 14.9 12.1
Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,765 2,200 33,970 3,115 1,947 162 101 203 137 73.4% -37.5% 10.9 17.4 8.6 12.1 1.4 1.4 14.3 14.1 8.0
Ciputra Development BUY 1,110 1,530 20,602 965 1,385 52 75 39 63 -6.9% 43.5% 21.3 14.9 11.8 9.8 1.5 1.4 24.5 7.3 9.6
Pakuw on Jati BUY 600 700 28,896 1,707 2,146 35 45 37 44 2.2% 25.7% 16.9 13.5 11.8 10.1 2.9 2.4 34.6 18.2 19.5
Summarecon HOLD 1,250 1,300 18,033 322 405 22 28 35 34 3.2% 26.0% 56.1 44.5 14.2 14.2 2.8 2.6 82.5 5.0 6.0
Retail 82,898 3,691 3,930 108 115 9.0% 6.5% 22.5 21.1 12.3 11.4 5.4 4.9 25.4 24.5
Mitra Adi Perkasa HOLD 6,300 5,800 10,458 332 354 201 214 201 214 59.3% 6.7% 31.4 29.4 7.9 7.4 3.2 3.2 80.0 10.3 10.9
Ramayana BUY 1,310 1,580 9,296 453 475 67 70 67 70 10.9% 4.9% 19.7 18.8 14.5 13.3 2.6 2.4 net cash 13.2 12.8
Matahari Department Store SELL 14,575 12,000 42,529 2,098 2,265 719 777 719 777 4.0% 7.9% 20.3 18.8 13.9 12.6 16.8 12.7 net cash 95.6 77.1
Matahari Putra Prima SELL 740 990 3,980 109 112 17 17 17 17 183.4% 2.7% 44.3 43.1 6.4 6.3 1.6 1.6 net cash 4.4 4.5
Ace Hardw are HOLD 970 850 16,636 699 724 41 42 41 42 -1.7% 3.6% 23.7 22.8 17.6 16.8 4.9 4.4 net cash 21.6 20.1
Erajaya Sw asembada BUY 670 1,100 1,943 303 339 105 117 105 117 14.9% 11.8% 6.4 5.7 3.3 2.6 0.5 0.5 1.0 8.6 9.0
PER (x)
Equity
Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth ROE EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Net Gearing
Equity SNAPSHOT Tuesday, June 13, 2017
Equity SNAPSHOT Tuesday, June 13, 2017
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
LEADERS Price as on Code 12-Jun-17 9-Jun-17 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Gudang Garam GGRM 77,750 75,500 3.0 4.6 5.2 21.7 HOLD
Semen Indonesia SMGR 9,650 9,375 2.9 3.8 9.0 5.2 HOLD
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 740 720 2.8 (3.9) (10.3) (50.0) SELL
United Tractors UNTR 27,075 26,500 2.2 2.0 11.1 27.4 HOLD
Kino Indonesia KINO 2,190 2,150 1.9 (0.5) (1.4) (27.7) SELL
Ciputra Development CTRA 1,110 1,090 1.8 (5.1) (5.5) (16.9) BUY
Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 14,625 14,375 1.7 (2.7) 4.3 25.3 BUY
Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,250 1,235 1.2 (6.4) (7.1) (5.7) HOLD
Vale Indonesia INCO 1,890 1,870 1.1 1.3 0.3 (33.0) HOLD
Adhi Karya ADHI 2,200 2,180 0.9 (3.5) 0.9 5.8 BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARDS Price as on Code 12-Jun-17 9-Jun-17 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Ace Hardware ACES 970 1,000 (3.0) (3.0) (2.0) 16.2 HOLD
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,765 1,800 (1.9) (2.5) (2.5) 0.6 BUY
Bukit Asam PTBA 11,050 11,250 (1.8) 2.1 0.7 (11.6) BUY
Aneka Tambang ANTM 705 715 (1.4) (2.8) 13.7 (21.2) HOLD
Semen Baturaja SMBR 2,940 2,980 (1.3) (7.3) (13.0) 5.4 SELL
Alam Sutera ASRI 318 322 (1.2) (1.9) (3.6) (9.7) HOLD
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,535 1,550 (1.0) (1.3) - 1.3 BUY
Adaro Energy ADRO 1,540 1,555 (1.0) (0.3) 4.1 (9.1) BUY
Harum Energy HRUM 2,080 2,100 (1.0) (1.9) 4.0 (2.8) SELL
Pakuwon Jati PWON 600 605 (0.8) (5.5) (2.4) 6.2 BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
Equity SNAPSHOT Tuesday, June 13, 2017
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PREVIOUS REPORTS
▪ Adaro Energi: Higher coal production to enhance earnings in 2Q17, Mayora Indah: Running ahead of its fundemantals Snapshot20170612
▪ Waskita Beton: Cheaper than the IPO valuation Snapshot20170609
▪ Bank Mandiri: Improvements on track Snapshot20170606 ▪ Unilever Indonesia: Fully valued Snapshot20170531
▪ United Tractors: The mining sector supported Komatsu sales Snapshot20170526 ▪ Indo Tambangraya: Flat coal production, Mitra Adiperkasa : Supported by resilient growth and
better efficiency Snapshot20170523
▪ Market Outlook: Investment grade! Snapshot20170522 ▪ Automotive Sector: April 2017: Weak monthly car sales volume Snapshot20170518
Equity SNAPSHOT Tuesday, June 13, 2017
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
Adeline Solaiman
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3503 Retail
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709
Equity Research Team
Sales team
Disclaimer
The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation
to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof.
We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its
affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this
report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3128
Novrita E. Putrianti Ehrliech Suhartono
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3132
Maria Renata
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3513 Construction
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3145
Yunita L. Nababan
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Technical Analyst
Lucky Bayu Purnomo
Laksmita Armandani
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3125
Antonia Febe Hartono
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3504 Cement, Property
Muhammad Hardiansyah
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3109
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3121
Tuty Sutopo
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3137
Upik Yuzarni
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3139
Kevin Giarto
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3530 Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip., Metal, Cement
Stefanus Darmagiri
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508 Consumer, Tobacco, Property
Natalia Sutanto [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3500 Head of Research, Strategy, Banking
Agus Pramono, CFA
See important disclosure at the back of this report www.danareksa.com
Top Related