Table of Contents Introduction (Koji) 3
Case Study 1 (Nina)
Public Opinion on Major Nuclear
Power Accidents
14
Case Study 2 (Anna)
Public Opinion and Global
Warming (Climate Change) –
Kyoto Protocol
39
Case Study 3 (Gene)
Anti-American Sentiment in South
Korea Towards USFK Pollution
after 2000
64
Conclusion (James) 77
News Coverage on Climate Change and
Environmental Consequences Rises in the Post-
Disaster
September 2009: Sumatra
Earthquake
March 2011: North-East
Japan Earthquake
September 2004: Indian
Ocean Earthquake
May 2006: An Inconvenient
Truth
Environmental Issues: RoI, Causes,
Effects, Policies and Obstacles
Issue Region of
Interest Causes Effects
Policies/Soluti
ons Obstacles
Pollution Global • Mankind
• Natural
• Climate Change
(0.85C rise since
1880)
• Kyoto Protocol
• Investments into
renewable energy
Decreasing emissions and
funding renewable energy
projects is very costly and
uncertain
Nuclear
Accidents
Global
(Chernobyl/Europe,
Japan)
• Natural Disaster
• Human Errors
(Design and
Operational)
• Spread of
radioactive matter
• Households
displaced
• Decrease
Usage/Shutdown of
nuclear power plants
Nuclear energy is relatively less
harmful to the environment
than other traditional plants,
and is less expensive than clean
energy power plants
Deforest-
-ation Global
• Resource
Obtainment
• Farming
• Wildfires
• Ecosystems lost
(animals displaced)
• Acceleration of
climate change
• Consumer level
purchases of
environmentally friendly
products
Environmentally friendly
products come at a premium
and most households cannot
afford to make the switch
The Environmental Protection Dilemma
Solutions to issues almost always involves money and a negative (at least short-term) impact on the economy
A 10% increase in electricity prices would reduce U.S. economic growth by 5.7% and would push close to a million Americans into poverty
Environmental issues are often interrelated
Increasing hydroelectricity usage in order to decrease carbon emissions leads to increased deforestation (which contributes to climate change) and further loss in eco-systems
Though they run the risk of melting down, nuclear power plants are relatively less polluting (unless they do melt down) and cheaper
Why Renewable Energy is Expensive
Most places suitable for producing large amounts of renewable energy are far away from the city centers where the majority of electricity is consumed
Optimal locations to build wind turbines range from Scottish hillsides, French lakes, to American deserts
The power stations do not run constantly, as wind turbines only run about 1/3 of the time and solar energy is also dependent on the amount of sunlight that is available
In order to meet demand when needed, countries would have to pay for traditional power station upkeep and a higher electricity cost (since those factories are not running at full capacity)
Generally, people admit that global warming has
been occurring and consider themselves to be
knowledgeable in the area
Percentage of Americans who believe global
warming has been happening
Percentage of Americans who consider
themselves 'highly knowledgeable' about
global warming
Survey Question: 2012-2013: What is your personal opinion? Do you think
that the world's temperature probably has been going up over the past 100
years, or do you think this probably has not been happening? 2012: What is your
personal opinion? Do you think that the world's temperature probably has been
going up over the past 100 years, or do you think this probably has not been
happening? 1997-2011: You may have heard about the idea that the world's
temperature may have been going up slowly over the past 100 years. What is
your personal opinion on this? Do you think this has probably been happening,
or do you think it probably has not been happening?
Survey Question: How much do you feel you know about global warming - a
lot, a moderate amount, a little, or nothing?
They have a general perception that global
warming poses a threat to the world’s future as
well as their own well-being
Percentage of Americans who believe the world's temperature will continue to rise if nothing is done to prevent it
Percentage of Americans who believe global
warming will pose a serious problem for the
United States
Survey Question: 2012: If nothing is done to prevent it, do you think the
world’s temperature probably will go up slowly over the next 100 years, or do
you think the world’s temperature probably will not go up slowly over the next
100 years? 2012: If nothing is done to prevent it, do you think the world’s
temperature probably will go up over the next 100 years, or do you think the
world’s temperature probably will not go up over the next 100 years? 2010-2011:
If nothing is done to prevent it, do you think the world’s temperature probably
will go up slowly over the next 100 years, or do you think the world’s
temperature probably will not go up slowly over the next 100 years?
Survey Question: 2012: If nothing is done to reduce global warming in the future,
how serious of a problem do you think it will be for the United States – very serious,
somewhat serious, not so serious, or not serious at all? 2012: Assuming it’s
happening, if nothing is done to reduce global warming in the future, how serious of a
problem do you think it would be for the United States – very serious, somewhat
serious, not so serious, or not serious at all? 1997-2011: If nothing is done to reduce
global warming in the future, how serious of a problem do you think it will be for the
United States – very serious, somewhat serious, not so serious, or not serious at all?
1o997-2011: Assuming it’s happening, if nothing is done to reduce global warming in
the future, how serious of a problem do you think it would be for the United States –
very serious, somewhat serious, not so serious, or not serious at all?
Most show support for the reduction of carbon
dioxide emissions by others and the general public
Percentage of Americans who support tax
breaks to produce renewable energy as a
way to reduce future global warming
Percentage of Americans who believe the
U.S. government should do more to address
global warming
Survey Question: 2012: For each of the following, please tell me whether you
favor or oppose it as a way for the federal government to try to reduce future
global warming. Each of these changes would increase the amount of money that
you pay for things you buy. Do you favor or oppose the federal government giving
companies tax breaks to produce more electricity from water, wind, and solar
power? 1997-2011: For the next items, please tell me for each one whether it's
something the government should require by law, encourage with tax breaks but
not require, or stay out of entirely. Do you favor or oppose the federal
government giving companies tax breaks to produce more electricity from water,
wind, and solar power?
Survey Question: 2009-2012: How much do you think the U.S. government
should do about global warming? A great deal, quite a bit, some, a little, or
nothing? 2009-2012: How much do you think the U.S. government is doing now
to deal with global warming? A great deal, quite a bit, some, a little, or nothing?
2008: Do you think the federal government should do more than it’s doing now
to try to deal with global warming, should do less than it’s doing now, or is it
doing about the right amount?
Survey Question: How important is the issue of global warming to you personally – extremely important, very important,
somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?
However, 80%+ of Americans do not think global
warming is an issue that they must deal with
personally
Percentage of Americans for whom the issue of global warming is extremely important personally
Mini-Case: Love Canal Location: Love Canal, Western New York (USA)
Background: An abandoned waterway, which was previously owned by a chemical company, transformed into a neighborhood of over 200 households
Disaster: Due to several years of heavy rain, in 1976 the canal overflowed and 21,000+ tons of chemical waste that had been buried resurfaced causing health issues to the inhabitants and growing fears of the possibilities of similar disasters occurring around the country.
Effect and Aftermath: Movements lead by Lois Marie Gibbs, president of the Love Canal Homeowners Association and residents led to the passage of CERCLA (Superfund), which grew to $1.6 billion in 5 years and $13.6 billion by 1994
Analysis: A spiral of extensive nationwide media coverage on unjustified facts (studies which were later found to be scientifically flawed were leaked and the crisis was given front-page coverage on the New York Times) and a rise in public awareness led to 85% of Americans to favor the clean up of hazardous waste sites and the multi-billion dollar act (CERCLA, SARA, Superfund)
This case was an example of an availability cascade (Kuran and Sunstein), which is “a self-reinforcing process of collective belief formation by which an expressed perception triggers a chain reaction that gives the perception increasing plausibility through its rising availability in public discourse”
References
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Kuran, T. & Sunstein, C. R. (1999). Availability cascades and risk regulation. Stanford Law Review 51(4). 683-768
=Background=
♦ World's first
artificial nuclear
reactor:
Chicago Pile-1
(CP-1), 1942, US.
- Was part of the
Manhattan Project
for producing
nuclear weapons.
- Consisted of “a
crude pile of black
bricks and wooden
timbers”.
♦ World's first electricity-generating nuclear power plant:
Experimental Breeder Reactor I (EBR-I), Idaho, US.
- On December 20, 1951 it produced sufficient electricity to
illuminate four 200-watt light bulbs.
♦ World's first nuclear power plant built for civil purposes:
AM-1 Obninsk Nuclear Power Plant, launched on 27 June
1954 in the Soviet Union.
…Globally, there have been 100< nuclear plant accidents.
♦World's first major nuclear reactor accident: NRX
(National Research Experimental), Ontario, Canada.
- December 12, 1952: partial meltdown due to operator error
and mechanical problems
- Clean-up required several months
- Reactor core removed and buried, improved reactor back in
operation within two years
- Was a research reactor, little to no public attention
♦World's most known accidents:
- 1979, Three Mile Island, US
- 1986, Chernobyl, USSR/Ukraine
- 2011, Fukushima-1, Japan
Three Mile Island, 28/03/1979
Partial reactor core meltdown, no fatalities
Cancer risk: out of 2 mln. people living in 50-mile radius, 325 000 were
expected to develop cancer from natural
causes in next 30 years. Radiation from TMI
could add 1 person to that number.
Extensive press coverage, including titles:
“It's all over the US”,
“There's no hiding place”...
=>Anti-nuclear demonstrations
(protest in Harrisburg, 1979 >>)
=> Enhanced credibility of anti-nuclear groups
=> Decline in reactor building in the US
Figures from
Eurobarometer.
The number of
countries listed at the
bottom of the chart
refer to the European
countries which were
included in each
Eurobarometer
survey (which has
increased as the
number of EU
member states has
grown).
Attitudes across Europe on the risk
posed by nuclear energy (1978-2008)
On the 15th of April 2011 1,193
members of the CLUB BBQ free
email forwarding service
completed a private internet-based
questionnaire.
People from the disaster-affected
areas were not surveyed.
Several months after the nuclear
disaster in Japan, market research
company Ipsos asked citizens in 24
countries how they feel about
atomic energy.
Worldwide Nuclear Electricity Generation and Nuclear reactor
construction starts, 1951 – 2011. Source: World Energy Outlook
2011, International Energy Agency
But…
French Polls
Use of nuclear power in France 2013
In favor
Against
Undecided
Use of nuclear power in France 2011
In favor
Against
Undecided
=Summary=
#Visibility of big nuclear accidents gives them an increased ability to influence public opinion on nuclear energy, health & environment on the global scale
#Major accidents cause periods of elevated anti-nuclear sentiments. However, the durability of these sentiments isn’t uniform.
#There's a global tendency to decrease the number of reactors, which shows the effectiveness of public opinion in relation to nuclear industry, but there is big difference by state.
…Why does this difference exist?
Possible reason 1:
People from countries that rely more on nuclear energy are more
used to it, consider themselves more knowledgeable, and
understand their country’s needs or lack of resources.
Possible reason 2: Nuclear energy does not feature amongst most
people’s highest concerns. The highest energy related concerns are
those of price and security of energy supply.
Possible reason 3: (Anti-)Nuclear movement is closely tied with
other social movements such as civil rights, anti-war etc. =>
Societies with developed civil rights movements might be more
anti-nuclear. Even gender equality may play a role.
(Attitude to nuclear industry: UK gendered data, 2009)
What is Kyoto Protocol? Formal name: “Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change”
Date: Dec. 11th, 1997(Signed) Feb. 16th, 2005(Effective)
Purpose: State Parties to reduce 5% of greenhouse gases emissions from 1990 to prevent global warming and climate changes
The first treaty which global world achieved an agreement
COP3 was hold in Kyoto
Countries; EU (15 countries), Japan, Hungary, Poland, Croatia, New Zealand, Russia, Ukraine, Norway, Australia, Iceland, United States, Canada
Post-Kyoto Protocol
A new goal for “Framework
Convention on Climate
Change”
However, it has not succeed to
make one because battles
between developed and
developing countries
Post-Kyoto Protocol
28%
16%
6% 6% 4%
2%
2% 2%
1%
1% 1% 1%
1%
1%
28%
CO2 emmisions(2012)
China U. S. India Russia
Japan Germany S. Korea U. K.
Mexico Canada Brazzil Indonesia
Australia Italy Others
Total amount: 32,6 billion t
CO2 emissions/ person
(2012)
Ⅱ. Analysis 1
How Public Opinion Effect on Government and the Policy ?
Public
Opinion
Government &
the Policy
Solving
Environment
Problems
United States As economy getting worse, economic growth has become much more
important than protection of the environment for American people
United States The number of Americans who requires policies to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions is also slightly decreasing
Australia
In Australia, which had not
ratified the Kyoto Protocol
likewise America, change of
government took place
through a nationwide election
and immediately after that the
new government ratified the
protocol on December 3,
2007
Public opinion persuade to
join Kyoto Protocol
the Coalition
47% the Labor
Party 53%
the percentage of the vote obtained
Europe European favorable public opinion on climate change persuade the EU
government to commit to Kyoto Protocol seriously
Europe European favorable public opinion on climate change persuade the EU
government to commit to Kyoto Protocol seriously
Japan
Before 3.11, Japanese people
tried to achieve Kyoto
Protocol because it has singed
in Japan.
However, more people think
that no nuclear power plants is
much more important than
reducing greenhouse gases
Ⅲ. Analysis 2
How Government Try to Make Public Opinion ?
Government &
the Policy
Public
Opinion
Solving
Environment
Problems
Japan
Making public opinion is also important to deal with
environmental problems
Tried to show climate change or global warming on media
a lot
Tax reduction policies for eco-friendly products
“Cool Biz”
“Eco-Point”
Summary Public opinion plays very important role for environmental
problem
Policies related with environmental problems is effected by public opinion in both of positive way and negative way
Some people (or some country) really care about climate change, others think that their benefits are much more important because protecting climate cost them a lot.
At the same time, to solve environmental problem, supports of public opinion is necessary for governments
To get support for producing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emission
To get public efforts to solve global warming problems
GENE JINSUK LEE
5614A001-8
Case 3:
Anti-American Sentiment in South Korea Towards
USFK Pollution after 2000
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND PUBLIC OPINION
I. Background 1) The origin of Anti-American sentiment in South Korea
After the liberalization in 1945, Korean peninsular was ruled by U.S.(South) and USSR(North) military forces
Through the democratization in South Korea, there has been a demand to withdraw U.S military forces from the peninsular in order to achieve ‘true’ independence
Tension between South and North Korea held the U.S military forces back
Korea was divided by ideologies; liberalism and communism
Communists left in South & those who demanded the establishment of autonomy took political position against U.S military
Extreme comparison: Right (Conservative party, Liberalism, American-friendly) vs. Left (Progressive party, Socialism, Anti-American)
I. Background
Therefore…
Public enemy: the nature of the foundation of Republic of Korea, widely influenced (or liberated) by U.S, brought tendency on Anti-American groups to target U.S as primary source to almost every unfavorable factor related to the social structure (liberal economy and democratic system, which sometimes cannot be perfect solution at all)
Social causality: U.S is sometimes scapegoated in the public opinion of South Korea
I. Background 2) The background of United States Forces Korea
The most notable trace of post-Korean War and division of territory
Since the establishment of Republic of Korea in 1948, U.S military remained and United States Forces Korea (USFK) was established in 1957
As of 2014, 29,300 USFK soldiers are stationed in South Korea
Up to 2009, USFK bases were located in 70 sites, including Yongsan – the central part of Seoul, the capital city. The number is to be reduced to 47 by 2017
Anti-sentiment against USFK arose; especially after two U.S. soldiers in the armed vehicle accidentally hit and killed two South Korean teenage girls in 2002
Environmental pollution caused by USFK was relatively highlighted (in comparison of other pollution caused by the others)
II. Hypothesis
Korean are more keen (and more likely to resist) to the
pollution occurred by USFK
Such more-than-usual resistance is mainly caused by anti-
sentiment
Public opinion towards environmental issues is linked to
public sentiment
III. Pollution Incidents
1) Yongsan: dispose of formaldehyde leakage to Han-river in 2000
An incident in 2000 in which a civilian
mortician, Albert L. McFarland, working for
the U.S. military in Seoul dumped a large
amount of formaldehyde down the drain. In
addition to its environmental concerns, this
has added some antagonism against the
United States
III. Pollution Incidents
2) Waegwan: expose of defoliant buried in 2011
Former USFK soldiers revealed to
American broadcasting network KPHO-TV
that, in 1978, they were ordered to bury
250 barrels of toxic substance labeled as
‘Agent Orange’ – sooner to be identified as
defoliant, which was used as chemical
weapon in Viet Nam war
III. Pollution Incidents
3) Osan Air Base: Bacillus anthracis(known as Anthrax) delivery in 2015
U.S Defense Department laboratory
accidentally sent live samples of anthrax through
a commercial delivery service to a lab at Osan
Air Base, South Korea. 22 people were exposed
during a training event. Anthrax is known as
most dangerous chemical weapon of mass
destruction
IV. Analysis
1) Korean Movie “The Host (2006)”
13 million audience views (No.1 in Korean movie history) in South Korea, the story was inspired by 2000’s Han-river formaldehyde leakage incident
The American military situated in South Korea is portrayed as uncaring about the effects their activities have on the locals. The director, Bong Joon-ho, commented on the issue: "It's a stretch to simplify The Host as an anti-American film, but there is certainly a metaphor and political commentary about the U.S."
IV. Analysis
2) Media exposure on USFK pollution
3,351 articles on USFK pollution: among them, 1,723 news articles on Waegwan defoliant pollution, 986 news articles on formaldehyde leakage vs. 707 news articles on Samsung Cooperation’s oil leakage, the biggest environmental disaster in South Korea
The number of news article on USFK pollution was highly increased in 2006-2007, after mega-hit of the movie ‘The Host’ – 434 related articles in 1 year
(Source: Korea News Foundation Database)
IV. Analysis
3) Public opinion poll on USFK
Survey 1: “Withdraw USFK from South Korea”
39% in 2003 → 62% in 2007 → 51% in 2008
(Source: Joongang Daily Newspaper)
Survey 2: “Osan AB Anthrax incident”
78.3% “U.S. is responsible for the infringement of sovereignty”
87.3% “Korea-U.S. SOFA agreement needs to be revised”
79.1% “Korean government is taking a submissive attitude on the accident”
= An incident is being amplified to other issues such as SOFA & OPCON
(Source: Social Trend Institute Korea)
IV. Analysis
4) Future study: comparative research on Okinawa case
In Japan: USFJ 1980s Kadena Air Base
V. Summary
Anti-American sentiment may not be the only factor since
the awareness on environmental protection is increasing
Plus, the gap between political stances of liberalism and
socialism are being narrowed
However, it is unavoidable that such sentiment spotlighted
the pollution caused by USFK – again, “scapegoating”
Overview
Connections between public opinion and environmental
policy
The current state of global environmental policy
Current trends in public opinion around the world
Paris 2015 Conference
Conclusions
Public Opinion and
Environmental Policy
Very fluid connection, particularly in democracies.
In general, voters care about the
environment, but they don’t
necessarily make votes based on it,
which weakens its
policy-making power.
Public Opinion on the Environment Due to the high cost of environmental protection, the issue
ends up being in pretty much direct conflict with the economy, meaning that when the economy is doing good, people care about the environment and when the economy is down, they don’t.
This however can work in the opposite direction in environmentally vulnerable areas where they feel that maintaining their environment is the key to improving their economy. As such, developing countries are often more concerned about these things than developed ones.
Recent Trends
With the recent economic crisis, in general we see a rather
large decline in concern. That said, even these lower levels of
concern are higher than they were ten years ago.
Recent Trends (cont.)
The interesting thing in the
above poll is that the ‘generally
correct’ and ‘generally
underestimated’ lines have
essentially flipped, meaning
that what is actually happening is
less that people aren’t concerned
anymore and more that the
public discourse has changed.
Global Issues
Generally speaking, people in less developed countries are
often as aware, if not more aware, of the impact of global
warming as those in more developed countries.
Policy Creation
The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference took
place in Copenhagen in December of that year.
Despite a number of minor agreements, the conference is
generally considered to be a rather spectacular failure.
Source: International Traveler; web; July, 2015
Policy Creation (Paris 2015)
The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference is to
be held in Paris beginning in November
A number of conferences have been held around the world
since Copenhagen, but most have held little weight. This
time however, there is some amount of optimism going in.
Source: The Telegraph; web; July, 2015
Paris 2015
There are a number of reasons that analysts are more
optimistic about this conference:
China and the US have changed their positions
Timetables and other pre-agreements have already been made
There is a change in approach from top-down to bottom-up
The situation is better understood.
Businesses are actually getting behind this
Source: The Climate Group; web; July, 2015
Paris 2015
An interesting counterpoint to this is however what I have
already discussed. The public is actually not that concerned
about the environment right now. The issue is of much
greater concern to business elites and politicians.
Another ongoing problem is the huge divide between
developed and developing nations on this issue, though the
change in position of China, which see itself as the de facto
‘leader’ of the developing world, could make a huge
difference here.
Conclusion As has been discussed, public opinion is vitally important to
the formulation of policy on the environment, as it leads to raised awareness and forces politicians to take notice.
On the other hand, the public tends to only respond in a crisis and often forgets as soon as the crisis has ended, which can be a serious barrier to the long-term process of policy creation.
As such, it tends to be elite or business pressure that makes the most long-term difference.
References Bowman, Karlyn, and Jennifer Marsico. "Opinions about the
Environment."Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 20 Apr. 2015. Web. 05 July 2015.
Cohen, Steve. "Understanding Public Opinion About the Environment."Observer. N.p., 25 Jan. 2009. Web. 05 July 2015.
Harms, William. "Global Surveys Show Environment Ranks Low on Public Concerns." UChicagoNews. N.p., 25 Feb. 2013. Web. 05 July 2015.
Kohut, Andrew, Carroll Dohery, Michael Dimock, and Scott Keeter. "Economy, Jobs Trump All Other Policy Priorities In 2009." Pew Research Center for the People and the Press RSS. Pew Research Center, 22 Jan. 2009. Web. 05 July 2015.
Willis, Rebecca. Paris 2015: Getting a Global Agreement on Climate Change. Publication. Green Alliance, Aug. 2014. Web. 05 July 2015.
"Environment." Gallup.com. Gallup, 2015. Web. 05 July 2015.
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