Climate Change and Food Security: Brazil
Elisio Contini & Geraldo B. Martha, Jr.
International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security, 6-8 Nov 2011, CAAS/IFPRI, Beijing, China
Outline
• Recent agricultural development;
• Potential impact of climate change on agriculturalproduction;
• Some policies alternatives to mitigate carbonemissions;
Evolution of Agriculture in Brazil
RECENT AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
Overview
Low Ag production and low yields;
Production concentrated in South/Southeast;
Food supply crisis;
Rural poverty;
Lack of specific knowledge on Tropical Agriculture;
Institutional void (ag research, education, markets, media governmental agencies, etc.).
Brazilian Ag before the 1970’s
The task: to move from trad. ag to one based on science & technology
M.Lopes (2011).
MAPA (2010).
Brazil 1970 1975 1980 1985 1996 2006
Product index 100 139 173 211 244 343
Input index 100 122 142 149 137 153
TFP 100 114 122 142 178 224
Land productivity 100 135 162 196 230 324
Labor productivity 100 129 158 185 241 348
Source: Gasques, Bastos, Bacchi, Valdes (2010).
TFP in Brazilian Agriculture, 1970 - 2006
159.51
37.32
49.251,258
3,239
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.0019
76/7
719
77/7
819
78/7
919
79/8
019
80/8
119
81/8
219
82/8
319
83/8
419
84/8
519
85/8
619
86/8
719
87/8
819
88/8
919
89/9
019
90/9
119
91/9
219
92/9
319
93/9
419
94/9
519
95/9
619
96/9
719
97/9
819
98/9
919
99/0
020
00/0
120
01/0
220
02/0
320
03/0
420
04/0
520
05/0
620
06/0
720
07/0
820
08/0
920
09/1
020
10/1
1
Yiel
d (k
g/ha
)
Prod
uctio
n (m
illio
n to
ns) a
ndar
ea (m
illio
n ha
)Production (million tons) Area (million ha) Yield (kg/ha)
+ 240%Variation, 1976/77 to 2010/11 + 32% + 157%
Source: after Conab.
Grains and Oilseed Production, Area and Yield (1976 – 2011)
Beef Production 3.36%
Pasture Area Animal ProductivityX
Stocking ratesAnimal performance X
~ 21% ~ 79%
~ 38% ~ 62%
G.B. Martha Jr., E.Alves, E.Contini (2011).
Land‐saving effect: 525 M ha
Factors of Growth in Beef Production (1950 – 2006)
Natural Cerrado
Water body
Crops
Cultivated pastures
Urban areas
Reforestation
90% of the Amazon Biome and 61 % of the Cerrado Biome is still covered by the original
vegetation !
Sano et al., Pesq. Agrop. Bras., v.43, 153-156, 2008
Area with Human Activities (Probio, 2007)
4.2%
10.7%9.5%
11.0%
21.4%23.0%
26.6% 27.5%
37.5%
0%
7%
14%
21%
28%
35%
42%
UE27 Canadá EUA Austrália Índia China Rússia Ucrânia Brasil
Gro
wth
in a
gric
ultu
ral
prod
uctio
n (%
)
OECD/FAO (2010).
Brazilian Agriculture: Some Projections (2010/2019)
Evolution of Agriculture in Brazil
POTENCIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION
Pinto & Assad (2008).
Projected Temperatures
Pinto & Assad (2008).
Variation (%) in Potential Cropland
Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.
Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Area
Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.
Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Production
Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.
Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Yield
Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.
Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Net Trade
Source: Haddad et al. (2010).
Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Brazilian Economy
AgricultureIndustryServicesGDP
A2 - Scenario B2 - Scenario
Evolution of Agriculture in Brazil
SOME POLICIES ALTERNATIVES TO MITIGATE CARBON EMISSIONS
Brazilian Climate Change Law
217 329901 735 694329
416
627494 461883
1.329
1.084
415 41586
114
92
84 82
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
1994 2005 2020 2020(I) 2020(II)
M t
CO
2-e
Energy Agriculture Land-use Industry+Residues
1515 2187 2704 1728 1652
36% 39%
Projected GHG Emissions in Brazil in 2020
Data from MCT (2011), G.B. Martha elaboration.
Mitigation
• potential to mitigate emissions;
• associated benefits that increase agricultural yield and resilience;
• high‐priority to mitigate actions that have strong adaptation benefits;
Adaptation
Mitigation and Adaptation Technologies
Action Total area(M ha)
Projected GHG emissionreduction (M t CO2‐e/yr.)
Total cost(R$ billion)
No‐till planting 8 16 a 20 2,40
Biological N fixation 5,5 16 a 20 0,30
Recovery of degraded pastures 15 83 a 104 19,65
Integrated crop‐livestock systems 4 18 a 22 34,20
ABC Program
Source: Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA).
• Available resources R$ 3.15 billion;
• Limit: up to R$ 1 million per farmer;
• Threshold for a period up to 8 years; deadline for paying for a period up to 15 years;
• Interest rate 5.5% per year;
Agricultural and Livestock Plan 2011/2012 (ABC Program)
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Integrated Crop-Livestock Systems Alternatives
1960
1975
2005
Evolution and expansion of soybean in Brazil
Adaptation of Crop Varieties
Concluding Remarks
• There are clear opportunities to expand food, biofuels and fiberproduction in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral systems will be of central importance;
• The experience of Brazil’s agricultural transformation is proof that it is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the tropics;
• The development of Brazilian agricultural was predominantly basedon productivity gains;
• Projected effects of climate change in Brazil are still uncertain.
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