Elena Filchuk, Igor Ashik, Vladimir Pavlov
1st stage Analysis of studies of the long-period levels oscillations on the World ocean and the seas of the Arctic ocean, in particular Barents and Norwegian Seas based on the literature sources.
2nd stageCreation of the climatic data base by sea level, hydrological and meteorological parameters a basis of hydrometeorological stations of the studied region (Barents and Norwegian Seas).
3rd stage Time-space analysis of the sea level oscillations and the separate parameters of the climatic variability in different parts of the investigated region; to reveal and to analyze relationships of cause and effect of long-period level oscillations and factors their defining
PLAN OF RESEARCH
factor
1. Sea level change as a result of the water characteristics changes (steric change): density, salinity, temperature
2. Ocean volume change : a) with impressments of the water to ice sheets formation of
theAntarctica and Greenland b) as a result of the ice sheets melting of the Antarctica and
Greenland
3. water rotation change as a result of climatic oscillation (runoff ,subterranean waters, evaporation, precipitations)
4. Sea level change as a result of the atmosphere pressure effect and the wind
5. Isostatic movements: a) glacioisostasy b) hydroisostasy c) sediment-isostasy
6. Sediment accumulation on the ocean floor
7. Oscillatory tectonic movement of the land: a) cutting b) geosynclinal c) seismic disturbance
8. Deformation of geoid
9. Speed of the rotation the Earth change
10.Water entry from mantle
11. Longoperiodical tide
parameterData
formatObservation period
Data sourse
atmosphere
pressure Grib, CDF 1920-2004 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
wind Grib, CDF 1920-2004NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, European
National Meteorological Centr(ENMC)
river runoff Txt1881-19991932-1998
Database AARI
North Atlantic Oscillation
Txt1881-2003 http://ns.noaa.gov
salinity Txt 1900-2002consolidated database thermohaline
characteristic Barents Seas, of database AARI
For formation of level data base were used Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) and AARI.
Time-space analysis of the sea level oscillations
Observed sea level trends
Reykjavik
Stavanger
Torshavn
Bergen
Maloy
Kristiansund
Heimsjo
Alesund
0.55
0.54
0.85
0.66
0.82
0.73
Kjolsdal
Trondheim
Bodo
Rorvik
0.64
Harstad
Hammerfest
Narvik
Tromso
Kabelvag
Linakhamari
Evenskjaer
Honningsvag
Belyi Nos
Poljarnyi
Russkaja Gavan
Murmansk
Pikshuev cape
Malye Karmakuly
Krenkelja
Barentsburg Teriberka
Bugrino
Bolvanskii Nos
Subarea South part of Norwegian
sea
Subarea North part of Norwegian sea
Region of Barents sea
0.73
0.760.83
0.57
0.76
0.72
0.87
0.79
0.77
0.87
0.70
0.78
0.83
0.84
0.88
0.89 0.67
0.84
0.63
0.62 0.73 0.89 0.74
0.73
0.73
0.8
1
0.480.79
0.59
0.75
0.750.75 0.76
0.52
Annual sea level oscillation, autocorrelation functionand power spectrum for Tromso
52.0 26.0 17.3 13.0 10.4 8.7 7.4 6.5 5.8 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0
years
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
S f (ñì **2/ãî ä )
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
tim e lag (years)-0.30
-0.10
0.10
0.30
0.50
0.70
0.90
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
correl
atio
n co
effic
ient
(R
)
Annual sea level oscillation, autocorrelation functionand power spectrum for Heimsjo
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 230 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
tim e lag (year)-0 .30
-0.10
0.10
0.30
0.50
0.70
0.90
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
corr
elat
ion
coef
ficie
nt(R
)
70.035.023.317.514.011.710.0 8.8 7.8 7.0 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.4 4 .1 3 .9 3 .7 3 .5 3 .3 3 .2 3 .0 2 .9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 2 .3 2 .2 2.1 2.1 2.0
years
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Sf (ñì **2/ãî ä )
Annual sea level oscillation, autocorrelation functionand power spectrum for Barentsburg
52.0 26.0 17.3 13.0 10.4 8.7 7.4 6.5 5.8 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0
years
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
S f (ñì **2 /ãî ä )
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
tim e lag (years)-0 .30
-0.10
0.10
0.30
0.50
0.70
0.90
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
correl
atio
n co
effic
ient
(R
)
Correlation coefficient between sea level on stations and annual sea level pressure was calculated. After analyzing the results it is possible to spike about:
1.Maximum coefficient correlation does not take place at the point of station position.
2. For most of stations the central and north parts of Norwegian Sea are regions of location of maximum correlation coefficients between sea level and surface pressure.
Analyze of connection between of longoperiodical sea level changes on Barents and Norwegian seas and
factors their defining.
1. Surface pressure
Correlation between annual sea level on Bergen and Sea level pressure
BERGEN
Correlation between annual sea level on Narvik and Sea level pressure
NARVIK
Analyze of connection between of longoperiodical sea level changes on Barents and Norwegian seas and
factors their defining.
2. WIND1. Maximum coefficient correlation does not take place at the point of
station position.
2. Location of maximum correlation coefficient between sea level on stations and wind does not take place at the point maximum correlation coefficient between sea level on stations and annual sea level pressure .
3. Barentsburg station has 2 regions with approximately equal maximum coefficient correlation (0.709 for 60N, 2.5E and 0.699 for 87N, 20E). However, effective storm surges direction of the wind on this region differs.
4. For most of stations the south part of Norwegian Sea is region of location of maximum coefficient correlation (table 1).
stations correlation coefficient (maximum)
location of correlation coefficient
(maximum)
wind direction
Bergen 0.73 870 N 200 E S-E
Barentsburg1 0.71 600 N 2,50 E S
Barentsburg2 0,699 870 N 200 E E
Heimsjo 0.80 600 N 7.50E S-W
Vardo 0,74 850 N 12.50E N
Narvik 0,84 62,50 N 2.50E S-W
Teriberka 0,78 62,50 N 7.50E S
Poljarnoe 0,79 62,50 N 50 E S-W
Liinkhamari 0,80 62,50 N 12.50E S-W
Kabelvag 0,77 600 N 7.50E S-W
Bodo 0.66 60 N 7.5E S-W
Trondheim 0.677 55.0° N 20.0° E W
NARVIK
BARENCBURG
Stations NAO Sev.Dvina Pechora Stations NAO Sev.DvinaPechora
Reykjavik 0.435 0.082 0.051 Tromso 0.347 0.089 0.200
Bergen 0.545 0.218 0.108 Hammerfest 0.365 0.117 0.364
Maloy 0.445 0.168 0.189 Honningsvag 0.313 -0.055 0.365
Kjolsdal 0.610 0.228 0.269 Vadso 0.121 -0.428 0.430
Alesund 0.360 0.138 0.075 Vardo 0.224 0.199 0.108
Kristiansund 0.355 0.234 0.072 Liinkhamari 0.269 0.004 0.329
Heimsjo 0.579 0.064 0.330 Pikshuev 0.422 0.264 0.490
Trondheim 0.435 0.080 0.349 Murmansk 0.151 0.297 0.302
Rorvik 0.376 0.120 0.316 Poljarnoe 0.513 0.175 0.289
Ny-Alesund 0.373 0.406 --- Teriberka 0.514 0.031 0.249
Barentsburg 0.573 0.021 -0.057 Bugrino 0.006 -0.105 0.198
Bodo 0.454 0.205 0.394 Malye Karmakuly 0.156 -0.097 0.027
Kabelvag 0.424 0.101 0.201 Mys Bolvanski 0.440 0.163 0.298
Andenes 0.508 0.367 0.036 Krenkelja 0.137 0.230 0.403
Evenskjaer 0.702 -0.050 0.247 Belyi Nos 0.114 -0.542 0.098
Hatstad 0.403 0.185 0.177 Russkaja Gavan 0.497 0.161 0.007
Narvik 0.469 0.079 0.312Sev.DvinaPechora
0.10.09
Decadal mean anomalies of the sea level (cm) of Arctic ocean (modeling results)
50s70s
60s 80s
Forecast of sea level changes on Norwegian and Barents seas using water and ice codynamics model (AARI).
CONCLUSIONall work
1) The Analysis of studies of the long-period levels oscillations for World Ocean by the literature sources was carried out.
2) The climatic database for sea level, hydrological and meteorological parameters on basis of hydrometeorological stations of the studied region (Barents and Norwegian Seas) have created. The program package has been produced for work with data base. These programs calculate the basic statistics, power spectrum.
3) Time-space analysis of the sea level oscillations and the separate parameters of the climatic variability in different parts of the investigated region have carried out. Relationships of cause and effect of long-period levels oscillations and some defining factors (wind, pressure, NAO, river runnof) have been analyzed.
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