Economic Outlook: Uncertainty in Global Market
June 6, 2012 CIMB Niaga Treasury - Research & Strategy
Utang dan Defisit Dunia
Utang meningkat dengan pesat
yang diakibatkan oleh:
1. Stimulus fiskal
2. Program Bailout Perbankan
3. Over Spending
Country Debt (USD Bio) S&P Debt-to-GDP 2011
United States 15,071 AA+u 100
Japan 14,276 AA-u 233
Germany 2,777 AAAu 82
France 2,260 AA+u 87
United Kingdom 1,951 AAAu 81
Italy 2,518 BBB+u 121
Spain 960 A 70
Netherlands 521 AAAu 66
Greece 479 CC 166
Portugal 238 BB 106
Ireland 225 BBB+ 109
Belgium 463 AAu 95
Austria 285 AA+ 72
Australia 351 AAAu 23
IMF - Sep 2011
Utang dan Defisit Dunia
IMF WEO Apr 2012
Governments try to
reduce deficits and
debts
Utang dan Defisit Dunia
IMF WEO Apr 2012
Households try to
reduce debts and
increase saving
Euro Exposures
IMF WEO Apr 2012
1. Asia Pacific exposures to Euro relatively small
2. Euro exposures to Asia Pacific relatively small
Utang dan Defisit DuniaLangkah-langkah
penyelamatan Eropa dari
defisit, utang dan
ancaman kebangkrutan
1. Penghematan
Anggaran
2. European Financial
Stability Fund
3. Banks recapitalization
4. Debt Swap
5. Pembelian surat utang
Eropa oleh ECB
6. Pinjaman lunak ECB
terhadap bank Eropa
Country Deficit 2010 Deficit 2011 Deficit 2012
United States -10.33 -9.64 -7.92
Japan -8.08 -8.88 -9.14
Germany -3.30 -1.67 -1.10
France -7.08 -5.89 -4.62
United Kingdom -10.21 -8.47 -7.01
Italy -4.48 -4.04 -2.36
Spain -9.24 -6.14 -5.16
Netherlands -5.34 -3.85 -2.80
Greece -10.42 -7.98 -6.87
Portugal -9.14 -5.87 -4.49
Ireland -31.98 -10.32 -8.59
Belgium -4.08 -3.54 -3.35
Austria -4.62 -3.47 -3.21Australia -4.95 -3.86 -1.86
IMF - Sep 2011
Mesin Ekonomi Yang Melambat
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Inflasi dan Aktivitas Ekonomi Cina
CPI YoY
1Y Best Lending Rates
PMI Manufacturing Index - rhs Bloomberg
-1.1
0.0
1.1
2.2
3.3
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
Apr-09 Mar-10 Feb-11 Jan-12
Euro Zone Unemployment & Inflation
Unemployment Rate Inflation Y/Y - rhs
Bloomberg
Bangkitnya Raksasa Ekonomi Dunia
3
5
7
9
11
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
US Labor Market
Non Farm Payrolls Unemployment Rate - rhs
Bloomberg
X 1000 %
Pasar Tenaga Kerja
Amerika Mulai pulih:
1. 3.7 juta orang telah
kembali bekerja sejak
2010
2. Tingkat pengangguran
turun ke 8.1% dari
10.0%
3. Masih ada 5 juta orang
yang menganggur
Kebijakan Moneter Yang Ekspansif
Suku Bunga Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Resiko Likuiditas/ Fluktuasi
Bank Sentral Suku Bunga 2012 PolicyFederal Reserve 0.25% Suku Bunga 0.25% sampai 2014
Ada Kemungkinan QE 3ECB 1.00% Ada kemungkinan turun suku bunga 25 - 50 bps
LTRO EUR 1 TrilyunBank of Japan 0.10% QE Naik JPY 10 Trilyun dan Ada Kemungkinan Tambah
Inflation Target 1%Bank of England 0.50% QE Naik GBP 50 Billion
Kebijakan Moneter Yang Ekspansif
IMF WEO Apr 2012
Kebijakan Moneter Yang Ekspansif
IMF WEO Apr 2012
Interest Rates in
Long Term:
1. UK and US are
rising
2. Euro is
decreasing
Suku Bunga Pasar
0.25
0.75
1.25
1.75
2.25
Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
3-Month Offering Rates (15 Apr '11 = 1)
AUD USD GBP IDR EUR
%
Bloomberg
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
10Y Bond Yield (15 Apr '11 = 1)
Indonesia US Germany Portugal Spain
Bloomberg
%
Suku Bunga Pasar
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11
Inflation
UK US Australia Indonesia
% YoY
Bloomberg
1. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Kuat Biasanya Disertai
Inflasi Tinggi
2. Inflasi Yang Tinggi Dapat
Disebabkan Oleh Kebijakan
Moneter Longgar
3. Inflasi Tinggi Biasanya
Disertai Mata Uang Lemah
Market and Inflation Rates
3M 2Y 10Y CPI YOYUSD 0.466 0.254 1.870 2.70CAD 1.347 1.273 2.020 1.90BRL 8.382 8.466 10.030 5.24
EUR 0.618 0.101 1.605 2.70GBP 1.011 0.415 2.005 3.50RUB 6.850 6.764 8.270 3.60CHF 0.112 -0.035 0.671 -1.00
JPY 0.196 0.110 0.867 0.50CNY 4.200 2.930 3.590 3.60KRW 3.540 3.380 3.750 2.50AUD 4.216 2.746 3.412 1.60NZD 2.873 NA 3.724 1.60INR 9.410 NA 8.664 8.65IDR 4.227 4.645 6.078 4.50SGD 0.382 0.200 1.510 5.20MYR 3.165 3.097 3.575 2.10PHP 3.192 3.310 5.846 3.00
As of 8 May 2012
Current Rates
1. Negative interest
rate is not always
bad for currency
2. Falling interest rate
causes currencies to
weaken
3. Safe heaven
currencies strong
when risks high
Pasar Komoditas
92
97
102
107
112
1,525
1,575
1,625
1,675
1,725
1,775
1,825
29-Nov 20-Dec 10-Jan 31-Jan 21-Feb
Hot Commodity
Gold Crude Oil (NYMEX) - rhs
$/ Troy Ounce
$/ Barrel
Bloomberg
1. Uneven Global
Economic Growth
2. Low inflation
3. Expansionary
monetary policy
Pasar Saham
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Equity Indices Performance
IHSG Dow Jones Shanghai Straits Times
(Jan 2005 = 1)
Bloomberg
1. Pertumbuhan
Ekonomi Dunia
Tidak Merata
2. Inflasi rendah
3. Kebijakan
Moneter Longgar
4. Harga Komoditas
Stabil
Pasar Saham
1. Saham Kuat Jika
Pertumbuhan
Ekonomi Kuat
2. Saham Kuat Jika
Volatilitas Rendah
3. Volatilitas Rendah
Jika Resiko Pasar
Rendah 5
13
21
29
37
45
10,500
11,100
11,700
12,300
12,900
13,500
Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
Stock Market & Volatility
Dow Jones IA Stock VIX - rhs
Bloomberg
Currency Ranking
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
CAD BRL EUR GBP RUB CHF JPY CNY KRWAUD NZD INR IDR SGD MYR PHP
Currency Performance against USD
1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
Bloomberg (8 May 12)
Currency MatrixEconomic Growth Monetary Policy
Short Term Long Term STRONG MEDIUM WEAKUSD USDCAD CADBRL BRL
EUR EURGBP GBPRUB RUBCHF CHF
JPY JPYCNY CNYKRW KRWAUD AUDNZD NZDINR INRIDR IDRSGD SGDMYR MYRPHP PHP
Inflation 2012 Bias
20
Perekonomian Indonesia
Kenapa Harga BBM
Dapat Naik?
1. Harga minyak
dunia naik
2. Subsidi
membengkak
3. Indonesia Net
Impotir minyak
0
1
2
3
4
5
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Indonesia Government Spending
Govt Expenditures Subsidies Oil Subsidies
(2001 = 1)
MoF Indonesia
Economic Challenges
Perekonomian Indonesia
Dampak Kenaikan
BBM & TDL:
1. Inflasi 6 – 7%
2. Defisit 2.2% PDB
3. BI Rate 5.75 – 6%
4. USD/IDR 9,100
5. 10Y Yield 6.5 - 7%
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
90,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11
USD/IDR & Car Sales
USD/IDR Indonesia Car Sales - rhs
Bloomberg; Gaikindo
Economic Data and FX Correlation - IDR
8,000
8,900
9,800
10,700
11,600
12,500
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12
USD/IDR & Overnight Rate Inflation Adjusted
Spread IDR O/N Depo & Inflation USD/IDR - rhs
%
Bloomberg
1. Bank Central dapat
menaikkan suku bunga dan/
atau mengendalikan
pertumbuhan kredit
2. Tambahan subsidi BBM dapat
mengendalikan inflasi tapi
berakibat anggaran defisit
3. Inflasi dampak negatif
temporary sedangkan defisit
dampak negatif long term
Ekspektasi Nilai Tukar 2012
CIMB KL Research
Main Issues
1. China and Europe economic growth slow
2. US economic growth accelerates
3. Inflation slows in the short term but accelerates in the long term
4. Expansionary monetary policies
5. Euro debt problem is a major threat for global economy
6. Asia Pacific growth in 2012 is quite strong but weaker than 2011
7. Stable commodity price
Economic Data and FX Correlation - USD
8,000
9,500
11,000
12,500
14,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12
US Labor & Stock Performance
US Non-Farm Payrolls Dow Jones Industrial Avg - rhs
Bloomberg
x1000
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
69
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11
US Inflation and USD FX Rate
USD Index USD 3M Libor Inflation Adj - rhs
%
Bloomberg
Economic Data and FX Correlation – Other Currency
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Mar-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12
3-Month Libor Inflation Adj & USD/CAD
CAD USD USD/CAD - rhs
Bloomberg
%
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
78
87
96
105
114
123
Australia Rate & Consumer Confidence
Westpac Consumer Confidence RBA Cash - rhs
%
Bloomberg
Economic Data and FX Correlation – Other Currency
1.43
1.48
1.53
1.58
1.63
1.68
-4.5
-3.7
-2.9
-2.1
-1.3
-0.5
Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
GBP and USD 3 Month Libor Inflation Adjusted
GBP USD GBP/USD - rhs
Bloomberg
%
Economic Data and Commodity Correlation
200
250
300
350
400
48
50
52
54
56
58
Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
China Manufacturing & Commodity Price
China PMI Manufacturing CRB Commodity Index - rhs
Bloomberg
43
63
83
103
123
300
400
500
600
700
Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12
US Jobless Claims & Price of Oil
Initial Jobless Claims Crude Oil NYMEX
x 1000 $/ barrel
Bloomberg
Analysis – CRB Commodity Index
1. Downtrend
2. Strong
support:
294.50
3. Resistance:
325.91
4. GDP Growth
and risk
aversion
driven
Analysis – Gold Spot
1. Ranging
2. Support:
1,560
3. Resistance:
1,790
4. Inflation
driven
Analysis – Crude Oil (Brent)
1. Ranging
2. Currently
decreasing
3. Support:
108.50
4. Resistance:
119.70
5. Growth
driven
33
Disclaimer
By accepting this commentary, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that he is entitled to receive such commentary in accordance with the restrictions set forth below and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein (including the “Restrictions on Distributions” set out below). Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of PT CIMB-Niaga Bank (“CIMB”). This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB.
This commentary has been prepared by the Sales Research team at the Treasury division of CIMB (“Treasury Research”). The information herein is not intended to constitute “research” as it is defined by applicable laws.
CIMB, its affiliates and related companies, their directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this commentary or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add to or dispose of, or may be materially interested in, any such securities. Further, CIMB, its affiliates and its related companies do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this commentary and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment banking, advisory or underwriting services for or relating to such company(ies) as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this commentary. The views expressed in this commentary accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) at Treasury Research about the subject securities or issuers and the compensation of the analyst(s), is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the performance of the Group Treasury division’s activities. CIMB prohibits the analyst(s) who prepared this commentary from receiving any compensation, incentive or bonus based on specific investment banking transactions or for providing a specific recommendation for, or view of, a particular company. However, the analyst(s) may receive compensation that is based on his/their coverage of company(ies) in the performance of his/their duties or the performance of his/their recommendations and the personnel involved in the preparation of this commentary may also participate in the solicitation of the businesses as described above. In reviewing this commentary, an investor should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additional information is, subject to the duties of confidentiality, available on request.
Disclaimer
The information contained in this commentary is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issue of this commentary. This commentary does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. CIMB does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of any such information and opinion contained in this commentary and accordingly, neither CIMB nor any of its affiliates nor its related persons shall not be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof.
This commentary is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation amongst CIMB’s clients generally and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this commentary. The information and opinions in this commentary are not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell the subject securities, related investments or other financial instruments thereof.
This commentary is issued and distributed by Treasury Research at CIMB. The views and opinions in this commentary are that of Group Treasury Research as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Treasury Research has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this commentary.
Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this commentary, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of the securities of company(ies) covered in this commentary. The securities of such company(ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors.
This commentary is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
Thank you
Research & Strategy – Treasury Dept
Top Related