Economic Leadership in times of crisis: Implementing the US stimulus program
Presented by the HC Coombs Policy Forum, ANU and
Mr G. Edward DeSeveSpecial Advisor to the US President for Recovery Implementationand Guest Lecturer, Carnegie Mellon University, Australia
5-6pm, Wednesday 2nd March 2011 The Finkel Lecture Theatre, John Curtin School of Medical Research Building #131ANU, Canberra, Australia.
America’s Economic Recovery Plan: Strategy, Policy and Implications
HC Coombs Policy ForumWednesday 2nd March 2011
G. Edward DeSeve
America’s Economic Recovery Plan: Strategy, Policy and Implications
“Not since Great Depression have we faced a situation like this. Roosevelt had to save the economy and was committed to balancing the budget. He finally gave up balancing the budget and was bailed out by the World War Two.”
(Taken from a conversation with Paul Volcker)
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Priv
ate-
sect
or p
ayro
ll em
ploy
men
t as
perc
ent o
f pea
k
Months from start of recession
Solid Line: Recession
Dotted Line: Recovery
Current Recession
1981 Recession
2001 Recession
1990 Recession
The Deepest Recession Since the Great Depression (Source Office of the Vice President)
President’s Commission
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11
Mon
thly
cha
nge
in p
riva
te p
ayro
ll em
ploy
men
t (th
ousa
nds)
Monthly Private-Sector Job Gains and Losses(Source: Office of the Vice President)
Recovery Act in effect
-0.7%
0.6%
-4.0%
-6.8%
-4.9%
-0.7%
1.6%
5.0%
3.7%
1.7%
2.6%3.2%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4
Rea
l GD
P gr
owth
, sea
sona
lly a
djus
ted
at a
n an
nual
rat
eReal Growth of Gross Domestic Product
Source Office of the Vice President
Recovery Act in effect
Obama Budget 2012
Jobs Impact of Recovery Act
Source: Council of Economic Advisers, November 2010
Taxes as a Percent of GDP 2008: OECD
Total tax revenueAs a percentage of GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 or latest available year 2001
Federal and State Revenue: Economic Policy Institute
Federal and state/local revenue as a share of GDP, 1969-2009
Federal revenues roughly constant while state and local revenues rise
Rockefeller Institute
Source: The Rockefeller Institute
Annual Changes in Federal Aid to State and Local Governments (as % of GDP)
Source: The Rockefeller Institute
Corporate Profits
Prescriptions Festina Lente- “Make haste slowly” It’s the economy stupid = G20 It is all relative Retirement matters Healthcare matters more Don’t forget the governors and mayors Start now Stay the course
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