| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date] 1
Economic Indicators
Last update 15.03.2013
| Economic Indicators | 2
Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – March 2013
Europe:
• Consensus March GDP forecast for WE decreased from 0,1% to 0,0% for 2013 and remained
on 1,2% for 2014.
• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in
February.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly in February. Companies
assessed their current business situation more favorably and were considerably more optimistic
about future business developments.
• There are hopes that the downturn may have troughed, based on a few indicators, including a
1,2% m-o-m rebound in retail trade in January. However, any recovery is currently fragile at the
best. Euro zone joblessness continued to climb in January and EC has downgraded its forecast
for 2013 to -0,3%.
US:
• Consensus March GDP forecast for the US decreased from 1,9% to 1,8% for 2013. Forecast
for 2014 remained on 2,8%
• US consumption slowed at the start of 2013 as households felt the impact of federal tax
increases introduced on January 1. Moreover, March 1 saw sequestered public spending cuts
come into effect in addition to defense cuts imposed late last year.
Japan:
• The March GDP growth forecast for Japan remained stable on 1,2% for both, 2013 and 2014.
• Q4 GDP figure was revised from an estimated contraction of 0,1% q-o-q to flat growth,
indicating that the Japanese downturn may have bottomed out. The new government’s policies
have helped to weaken the Yen supporting export growth but also pushing up energy import
costs.
3 | Economic Indicators |
Eurostat Data
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Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
06
Q1
'07
Q1
'08
Q1
'09
Q1
'10
Q1
'11
Q1
12
Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year
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Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
'06Q
1
'07Q
1
'08 Q
1
'09 Q
1
'10 Q
1
'11
Q1
12
Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
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Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
08
/1
09
/1
10
/1
11
/1
12
/1
13
/1
2 %
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
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Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED Mar 13
Feb.13; 1,8
Mar 13; 0,75
Mar 13; 0,25
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Jan
08
Ju
ly 0
8
Jan
09
Ju
l.09
Jan
10
Ju
l.10
Jan
11
Ju
ly 1
1
Jan
12
Ju
l.12
Jan
13
Ju
l.13
ECB short-term rate
Eurozone inflation
FED rate
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Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
10.8
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
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Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Ja
n 1
1
Jan
12
Jan
13
Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved considerably in February.
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
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Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved slightly again in February.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
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Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
60
65
70
75
80
85
04
Q1
05
Q1
06
Q1
07
Q1
08
Q1
09
Q1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
%
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
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Ifo Data
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Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Feb 13
The Ifo World Economic climate improved considerably in Q1 2013
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
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Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate
Source: IFO Feb 13
The economic climate for Western Europe improved in the 1st quarter 2013.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
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Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Feb 13 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
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Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Jan 13
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Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Jan 13
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Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Mar 13
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Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Mar 13
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Business situation 6 months expectations
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly by over three points in
February. This represents its greatest increase since July 2010. Satisfaction with the current
business situation continued to grow and optimism regarding future business perspectives
increased. The German economy is regaining momentum.
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Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
Source: IFO Mar 13
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly by over three points in
February. This represents its greatest increase since July 2010. Satisfaction with the current
business situation continued to grow and optimism regarding future business perspectives
increased. The German economy is regaining momentum.
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Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Source: IFO Mar 13, bundesverband druck und medien
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
The business climate within the printing industry improved from -8 to -2.
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Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Business Development at German Printers – February 2013:
With +2% the assessment of the current business situation in the printing
industry remained fairly unchanged from last month and is considerably
better than in the same month of last year (-6%).
The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – improved from -8% to -2%.
The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained
negative for the 6th month in succession, but improved from -16%
to -6%. In the same month of last year expectations were positive and
considerably better than today.
Source: IFO Mar 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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Zenith Data
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Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,
rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015
Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow
2% in 2015
Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between
2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to
37%
Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in
internet display over the next three years
Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total
in 2015
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Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
At current prices
| Economic Indicators | 26
Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
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