NCARisfundedbytheNationalScienceFoundation
EconomicImpactsofClimateChangeonAgriculture:IntegratingiPETS andCLM
Xiaolin Ren,MatthiasWeitzel,BrianO’Neill,PeterLawrence,Prasanth Meiyappan,SamLevis,EdBalistreriandMikeDalton
CESMTutorialAug16,2017
BRACE(BenefitsofReducedAnthropogenicClimatechangE)
Project• KeyQuestion:WhatimpactsareavoidedbyreducingclimatechangefromRCP8.5to4.5?
• Morethan50authorsfrom18institutions• 18impactstudies:Agriculture,Extremes,Health,andTropicalcyclones
• SpecialissueofClimaticChange
Whatisintegratedassessmentmodeling?
Areasoffocus:DevelopmentPathwayIAM– EarthSystemModelinteractionsUncertainty
IntegratedPopulation-Economy-Technology-Science(iPETS)Model:9-Regions,withTrade
TransitionCountries
OtherIndust.Countries
OtherDevel.CountriesSub-Sah.
Africa
USA
LatinAmerica
EU-27+
China
India
ExternalCollaborators: M.Dalton(NOAA);A.Jain(U.Illinois);R.Fuchs,S.Pachauri (IIASA);E.Balistreri (Col.SchoolofMines)
Communityorientation: Codefreelyavailable
Modelstructureandcomponents
FinalGoods
Energy
Materials
CO2 Emissions
Consumption, Investment,Government, Exports/
Imports
Final Goods Producers
Consumption & SavingsCapital & Labor
Households
Oil, Gas, Coal, ElectricityRefined Fuels,
Intermediate Goods Producers
Land Use Distribution: cropland, forestland
and pasture
LaborCapital
LandLaborCapital
Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Products, and Materials
Land
iPETS
Inputs OutputsiPETSModel
Totaleconomicoutput(GDP)
Quantities ofgoodsproducedandconsumed(energy,food)
Prices ofgoods(energy,food)
Aggregatelanduse(cropland,pasture)
CO2 emissionsfromenergyuse
Economicinitialconditions(region,sector)
Projectedpopulation
Technologicalprogress:projectedproductivityofland,energy,labor
Policies (carbontax,emissionspermits,subsidies,etc.)
ClimateImpact
onCropGrowthCESM
CLM
Cropmap
Aggregatedyieldchange
Aggregatedlanduse
DownscalingModel
CESM
CropYieldTool1
1
2
Etc.
iPETSRCP8.5
CLMYieldDatabase
iPETSBaselineScenarioSSP5,Noclimatechange
CLM
3
IdealizedCLMRuns
Climate CO2fertilization Nfertilizer Irrigation
RCP4.5
w/w/
IrrigatedRainfed
w/oIrrigatedRainfed
w/ow/
IrrigatedRainfed
w/oIrrigatedRainfed
RCP8.5
w/w/
IrrigatedRainfed
w/oIrrigatedRainfed
w/ow/
IrrigatedRainfed
w/oIrrigatedRainfed
1
Forallcropsinallgridcells8CLMruns16scenarios
ClimateImpactonYieldRelativetoBaseline:InputstoiPETS (RCP8.5)
2
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
China
EU
India
LatinAmerica
OtherDevelopingCountries
OtherIndust.Countries
Sub-Sah.Africa
TransitionCountries
USA
ClimateImpactonEconomicIndicators%Changesvs.Baselinein2061-2080
3
Input
ClimateImpactonMarket ResponseClimateImpactonLandUseChangeClimateImpactonGDP
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
CLMyieldChange-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
CropProduction CropConsumption CropPrice
China EUIndia LatinAmericaOtherDevelopingCountries OtherIndust.CountriesSub-Sah.Africa TransitionCountries
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
CropLand Pasture
China EUIndia LatinAmericaOtherDevelopingCountries OtherIndust.CountriesSub-Sah.Africa TransitionCountries
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
GDP
China EUIndia LatinAmericaOtherDevelopingCountries OtherIndust.CountriesSub-Sah.Africa TransitionCountries
EffectofCO2fertilization
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Crop Production Crop Consumption Crop PriceGDP PastureCropLandYield Food Consumption
Climate
Climate + CO2 fertilization
FutureWork
• Improveandunderstandindividualcomponents– climateimpactoncropyieldsinCLM
– yieldimpactoneconomyiniPETS
– spatiallandallocationmodel
• Incorporateyieldeffectsonpasture,forestry• Considerincorporationofadditionalyieldimpactsfromextremes
• Consideruncertainties
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Crop Production Crop Consumption
Crop Price
GDP
Pasture
CropLandYield Food Consumption
Mitigation
Climate
(RCP4.5– RCP8.5)/RCP8.5in2061-2080
AvoidedImpactw/CO2 fertilization
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Crop Production Crop Consumption
Crop Price
GDP
Pasture
CropLandYield Food Consumption
AvoidedImpactw/oCO2 fertilization
(RCP4.5– RCP8.5)/RCP8.5in2061-2080
Mitigation
Climate
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