Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved1
Economic Assessments of Space Solar Power (SSP):
Past and Present
Mr. A.C. CharaniaPresident, SpaceWorks Commercial
[email protected] | 1+202.503.1752 | 1+202.503.1751 (Fax)
Mr. Ryan LefkofskySummer 2010 Graduate Intern, SpaceWorks Commercial / CMU Tepper MBA School Student
IAC-10.C3.1.8, 61st International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Prague, Czech Republic, 27 September – 01 October 2010
A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)
Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved2 Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved2
Overview:-An engineering services firm with offices in Atlanta, Georgia (HQ) and Washington, D.C.
-Spin-off from the Georgia Institute of Technology founded in 2000
-Approximately +$2M annual revenues from sales of engineering services and software
-85% of SEI staff members hold degrees in engineering or science
-Three major divisions: Engineering, Commercial, and Software
Core Competencies:-Advanced concept synthesis for launch and in-space transportation systems
-Including engineering design and analysis, new concept design, independent
concept assessment, life cycle analysis, and programmatic evaluation
-Financial engineering analysis for next-generation aerospace applications and markets
-Technology impact analysis and quantitative technology portfolio optimization
-Commercial development of space
-Media materials related to space
-Engineering software development
Clients:- NASA, U.S. DoD, commercial space companies
SPACEWORKS ENGINEERING, INC. (SEI)
Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved3 Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved3
SPACEWORKS: KEY CUSTOMERS BY DIVISION
Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved4 Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved4
REUSABLE LAUNCH VEHICLES
Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved5 Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved5
SPACECRAFT
Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved6 Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved6
HUMAN SPACE EXPLORATION
Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved7 Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved7
PLANETARY DEFENSE
Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved8 Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved8
COMMERCIAL SPACE
Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved9 Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved9
SPACEWORKS COMMERCIAL: CURRENT PROJECTS
Space Venture AcceleratorWe look to leverage internal and external resources to champion our
own ventures.
NanoLaunch Services [incubator study]SpaceWorks Commercial is examining the market demand and
launch supply for small satellites, focusing on the microsatellite (10-
100 kg) and nanosatellite (1-10 kg) markets.
FastForward Study Group [incubator study] The FastForward study group is an ad-hoc study group involving pre-
competitive analysis and assessment of future global high speed
point-to-point (PTP) passenger and cargo services.
Google Lunar X PRIZE [partnership support]SpaceWorks Commercial is assisting Astrobotic Technology, Inc.,
one of the leading contenders for the Google Lunar X PRIZE, to
analyze the commercial potential of future lunar robotic missions.
Space Solar Power Economics [incubator study]SpaceWorks Commercial continues to examine the potential cost and
economics of Space Solar Power (SSP). This includes the cost of a
demonstrator and near-term, operational system.
Spaceport Field Guide [tool development]SpaceWorks Commercial has developed a Google Earth plug-in that
offers a database of worldwide launch sites.
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved10
SPACEWORKS COMMERCIAL SSP INTEREST
- The viability of Space Solar Power to compete and supply electricity for consumption on the Earth has been debated for quite sometime.
- SpaceWorks Commercial has been analyzing the economics of SSP
- Part of ongoing IAA study on SSP (J. Mankins)
- Past experience in space economics and transportation analysis of SSP
- Presentation at Space Power Canada IAC 2008/9
- Review of previous economic analysis (1970s to today)
- Some new analyses (parametric for full-scale system and more in-depth for pilot plan)
- Specific Analysis
- Full scale economic analysis
- Top level economic analysis for a notional Space Solar Power company (full up system) and analyzing breakout between space transportation costs and all other costs (terrestrial markets)
- Global electricity price analysis including niche customer analysis (humanitarian, remote sites, military, etc.) to determine price points and quantity/schedule of demand
- Three top-level system economic analysis
- First Revenue satellite economic analysis
- Hybrid public-private system, interim 1-2 satellite system
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved11
SSP CONCEPTS FOR IAA 2010 REPORT
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved12
DOE/NASA 1970s STUDY ECONOMICS
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved13
DOE/NASA STUDY: SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE
Sources:
- Harron, R. J., Wadle, R. C., “Solar Power Satellite Cost Estimate,” NASA Technical Memorandum 58231, January 1981.
- Kieroiff, H. E., “Satellite Power System (SPS) Financial/Management Scenarios,” Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy under
Contract No. EG-77-C-01-4024, October 1978.
SSP SATELLITE
(60 satellites x 51,000 MT, 300 GW)LEO BASE
MAINTENANCE BASE
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved14
DOE/NASA STUDY: SPACE TRANSPORTATION
Sources:
- Harron, R. J., Wadle, R. C., “Solar Power Satellite Cost Estimate,” NASA Technical Memorandum 58231, January 1981.
- Kieroiff, H. E., “Satellite Power System (SPS) Financial/Management Scenarios,” Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy under
Contract No. EG-77-C-01-4024, October 1978.
CARGO LAUNCH TO LEO: HLLV ASTRONAUT LAUNCH TO LEO: PLV
ASTRONAUT LEO-GEO TRANSFER: POTVCARGO LEO-GEO TRANSFER: EOTV)
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved15
1970s DOE/NASA STUDY: TRANSPORTATION COST ESTIMATES
Space
Transportation
ElementDDT&E Cost
(in US$M,
FY2009)
Avg.
Transportation
Cost/SPS
(in US$M,
FY2009)
Cost Per Flight
(in US$M,
FY2009)
Payload
(MT)
Cost Per kg
(in $/kg,
FY2009)
HLLV $40,350 M $ 7,038 M $ 36 M 424 MT $ 86 / kg
EOTV $8,094 M $ 2,071 M $ 147 M 4,000 MT $ 37 / kg
PLV $9,423 M $ 937 M $ 39 M 89 MT $ 433 / kg
POTV $ 3,645 M $ 46 M $ 5 M 90 MT $ 52 / kg
1970s DOE/NASA Study: Space Transportation ElementsOther space infrastructure elements not included including LEO and GEO bases
•Notes: NASA New Start Inflation Index used to inflate 1977 values, EOTV payload is from LEO to GEO
•Sources:
•Harron, R. J., Wadle, R. C., “Solar Power Satellite Cost Estimate,” NASA Technical Memorandum 58231, January 1981.
•Kieroiff, H. E., “Satellite Power System (SPS) Financial/Management Scenarios,” Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. EG-77-C-01-4024, October 1978.
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved16
1970s DOE/NASA STUDY: COST ESTIMATES
Cost to First Unit
“SPS” Space
Segment Specific
(in $M, FY2009)
Transportation/
Ground System
(in $M, FY2009)
Total
(in $M, FY2009)
Research $ 1,171 $ 162 $ 1,333
Engineering Verification $ 11,555 $ 17,091 $ 28,647
Demonstration $ 33,679 $ 48,850 $ 82,529
Investment $ 74,457 $ 133,404 $ 207,861
Production $ 29,367 $ 19,148 $ 48,515
TOTAL $ 150,229 $ 218,656 $ 368,884
1970s DOE/NASA Study (baseline)60 satellites (300 GW) over 30 years, 32.5 operational years, Learning effect = 85%, SPS mass (each) = 50,984 MT
ESTIMATED TOTAL COST: 1970s DOE/NASA Study (baseline): $2,544,997 M
Cost Per Unit Cost (in $M, FY2009) % of Total Unit Cost
Satellite $ 18,125 50.0%
Construction $ 2,629 7.2%
Transportation $ 10,093 27.8%
Ground System $ 3,872 10.7%
Management $ 1,549 4.3%
TOTAL $ 36,269 100.0%
•Notes: NASA New Start Inflation Index used to inflate 1977 values
•Sources:
•Harron, R. J., Wadle, R. C., “Solar Power Satellite Cost Estimate,” NASA Technical Memorandum 58231, January 1981.
•Kieroiff, H. E., “Satellite Power System (SPS) Financial/Management Scenarios,” Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. EG-77-C-01-4024, October 1978.
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved17
TOP LEVEL SSP ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved18
COST COMPARISON OF LARGE AND SMALL SCALE NPV FOR SSP
- Source: Xin, S., et al., “Financial and Organizational Analysis for a Space Solar power System: “A business plan to make Space Solar Power a reality,” May 18, 2009.
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved19
FULL-SCALE COMMERCIAL SSP SYSTEM ANALYSIS: ASSUMPTIONS
- Top level financial model of a completely commercial, full-scale SSP project
- Economic environment- Discount Rate: 10%, Inflation rate: 2.10%, Tax Rate: 35% Real, Average Ann. Interest Rate: 7.5%,
Reported in $2009 USD
- Program - Starting FY: 2012, IOC: 2020, Program End:20 Years from IOC, DDT&E: 6 Years
- IRR: 10%
- SSP System- SSP Mass:
- Mass of Satellite: 22,500 MT
- Total # of Satellites: 21, 1st year Satellites : 3, Additional Satellites: 2/year
- Power Generation of Each Satellite: 4 GW
- 85% Learning Curve, Refurbishment Mass/year: 14,850 MT, Mass Launched/year: 59,850 MT
- Other assumptions- DDT&E represent 15% of total other costs (TOC)
- 71% of DDT&E was allocated towards in space development.
- 29% was allocated toward ground development.
- Acquisition represented 40% of TOC
- 91% of acquisition costs were allocated to space operations.
- Facilities represented 4% of TOC
- 60% of facilities costs were in space
- Yearly operations accounted for 15% of TOC
- 66% of operations costs were space based.
- In-Space Launch to GEO represented 25% of TOC
- All In-Space Launch costs were incurred in space.
- Disposal accounted for 1% of TOC
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved20
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000
LE
O T
ran
sp
ora
tio
n C
os
ts (
$/k
g)
All Other Life Cycle Cost Elements ($/kg)$.60/kwh
$0.10/kWh
$0.50/kWh
$0.60/kWh $0.75/kWh$1.00/kWh
Denotes highest current grid price
Space Hardware
Cost Comparisons:
- SSP-ISS Demo E
$90,909$/kg
- ISS:
$115,259/kg
- NEAR:
$181,083/kg
- Mars Pathfinder:
$430,787/kg
- Lunar Prospector:
$340,569/kg
- Landsat-7:
$252,941/kg
-Iridium Satellite:
$7,257/kg
-1970 DOE/NASA SPS:
-$356/kg (no DDT&E)
Delta IV-H
Each Line Represents
Corresponding Price
At NPV= 0 (WACC=10%)
Iridium Satellite
Soyuz
TOP LEVEL ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE OF FULL-SCALE SSP
$0.30/kWh
Currency 2009 USD
Falcon 9H
**Argus
Other Launch
Vehicle Cost
Comparisons:
Falcon 1:
$9,010/kg
STS:
$10,460/kg
Atlas V Heavy:
$11,513/kg
DOE/NASA HLLV:
$85/kg
**Study Level Future RLV
1970s HLLV
1970s SPS satellite
GOVERNMENT
SUPPORT (DDT&E, etc.)
RLVs
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved21
ECONOMIC COMPARISON
- Reviewed Four Major Space Solar Power Reports
- 1978 DOE Satellite Power System
- ESA Advanced Concepts Team Earth and Space Based Power Generation Systems Comparison Study
- ISU Space Solar Program Report
- NASA Fresh Look
- Mined the reports for cost data
- Space Power Satellite Mass (kg) versus Power (kW)
- Space Power Satellite System Cost (2010 US$) per Satellite
- Space Power Satellite cost (2010 US$) versus mass (kg)
- Space Power Satellite cost (2010 US$) Vs. delivered power (kW)
- Sale Price (2010US$/kWhr)
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved22
Space Power Satellite Cost (US$2010/kg) for Various Study Architectures
$532
$93
$302
$195$266
$78 $56 $36
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
SPS
Ref
ere
nce
Sys
tem
-G
AA
lAs
-1
20
GW
SPS
Ref
ere
nce
Sys
tem
-Si
-1
20
GW
ESA
SP
S -
0.5
GW
ESA
SP
S -
5G
W
ESA
SP
S -1
0G
W
ESA
SP
S -
50
GW
ESA
SP
S -
10
0G
W
ESA
SP
S -
50
0G
W
ISU
SSP
Lar
ge S
cale
Im
ple
me
nta
tio
n -
60
0G
W
US
$2010/k
g
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved23
Space Power Satellite Cost (kg/kW) for Various Study Architectures
6.80
10.20
7.07
2.44
6.45
1.290.64 0.27
8.00
0.16 0.020
2
4
6
8
10
12
SPS
Ref
ere
nce
Sys
tem
-G
AA
lAs
-1
20
GW
SPS
Ref
ere
nce
Sys
tem
-Si
-1
20
GW
ESA
SP
S -
0.5
GW
ESA
SP
S -
5G
W
ESA
SP
S -1
0G
W
ESA
SP
S -
50
GW
ESA
SP
S -
10
0G
W
ESA
SP
S -
50
0G
W
ISU
SSP
Fir
st B
usi
ne
ss
Ap
plic
atio
n -
0.0
1G
W
ISU
SSP
Inte
rme
dia
te
Bu
sin
ess
Ap
plic
atio
n -…
ISU
SSP
Lar
ge S
cale
Im
ple
me
nta
tio
n -
60
0G
W
kg
/kW
Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved24
BACKGROUND TO FIRST REVENUE SATELLITE ANALYSIS
Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved25 Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved25
Benchmark – Generators at US Military Bases in forward-deployed regions
Joint Force Quarterly #57 (2nd Quarter, April 2010)
- A single typical 60-kilowatt generator burns 4 ~ 5 gallons per hour
- Cost of Fuel
- Afghanistan: $17.44/gal
- Iraq : $13.80/gal
- Estimation for Cost of Electricity
- Afghanistan: (17.44 $/gal x 4 gallons/hour )/(60 kW) = 1.16 $/kWh
- Iraq : (13.80 $/gal x 4 gallons/hour)/(60 kW) = 0.92 $/kWh
Space-Based Solar Power Report by National Security Space Office
- When all indirect and support costs are included, it is estimated that the DoD currently spends over $1 per kilowatt hour for electrical power delivered to troops in forward military bases in war regions.
Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved26 Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved26
Case Study: Botswana - Morupule B Generation and Transmission Project
- Organization: Botswana Power Corporation
- Region: Botswana (2009 ~ 2014)
- Purpose: Developing reliable supply of electricity and Promoting
alternative energy sources for low-carbon growth
- Construction of a 600 MW (4 x 150 MW) coal-fired power station
- Preparing a low-carbon growth strategy (50MW Solar targeted by
2016)
- Price: 5 cents/kWh (20 cents/kWh for Solar Power)
- Financing
Loan Details: 40-years term with no interests (IBRD)
20-years term with 1.336% interests (ADB)
Financial IRR = 6.7%
Total Project Cost $ 905.4M 100.0%
IBRD – World Bank $ 98.2M 10.8%
African Development Bank (ADB) $ 139.3M 15.4%
Middle Income Country Trust Fund Grant $ 0.6 M 0.1%
ICBC – Standard Bank $ 535.7M 59.2%
Borrower (The Government of Botswana) $ 131.6M 14.5%
Source: African Development Bank (http://www.afdb.org)
Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved27 Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved27
w w w . s e i . a e r o
SpaceWorks Commercial
A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)
1701 K St. NW | Suite 750 | Washington, D.C. 20006 U.S.A.
Phone: 1+202.503.1750 | Fax: 1+202.503.1751
www.spaceworkscommercial.com | E-mail: [email protected]
SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SE)
Corporate Office
1200 Ashwood Parkway | Suite 506 | Atlanta, GA 30338 U.S.A.
Phone: 1+770.379.8000 | Fax: 1+770.379.8001
www.sei.aero | E-mail: [email protected]
A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)
Top Related