http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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Coral Reef Stakeholders’ Use of NOAA Coral Reef Watch Ecoforecasts During the 2014-2017
Global Coral Bleaching Event
C. Mark Eakin, Gang Liu, Jacqueline L. De La Cour, Erick F. Geiger, William J. Skirving, Scott F. Heron, Denise A. Devotta, Andrea M. Gomez, Benjamin L. Marsh, Kyle Tirak
NOAA Coral Reef Watchhttp://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleMost Diverse Marine Ecosystem
Coral reefs cover only 1/10 of 1% of ocean floor …
…but are habitat for over 25% of all marine species
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleKey Messages:
• Rising temperatures are causing bleaching, disease, and death of corals
• 2014-17 was the worst bleaching ever
• Climate change is increasing bleaching frequency and intensity and will get worse
• Ecological forecasts from satellite- and climate model-based systems provide the lead time needed for resource managers to act
– Enhanced monitoring
– Reducing local stressors
– Rescuing rare corals
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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5
zooxanthellae
What is Coral Bleaching?
l Most of corals’ food
comes from
photosynthesis
Sco
tt R
. S
an
tos
Symbiotic
algae
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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6
What is Coral Bleaching?
l Most of corals’ food
comes from
photosynthesis
Symbiotic
algae
l Corals can
“bleach” due to
stress
l Corals exposed to
high temperatures
and/or high light
become stressed
l Corals eject their
algae; coral
appears “bleached”
zooxanthellae
Sco
tt R
. S
an
tos
l If stress is mild or brief,
corals recover, otherwise
they die
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title style“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”– IPCC AR5, 2014
10Warmest
Years since 1880NOAA
2016
2015
2017
2018
2014
2010
2013
2005
2009
1998
2019
2014
20152016
20172018
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleCoral Reef Watch5-km Satellite-Based Products
Products use a blend of data from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite SST
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleCoral Reef Watch 5 km Satellite-Based
Products – A Decision Support System (DSS)
Coral –
specific
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
SST Anomaly
Coral Bleaching HotSpot
Degree Heating Week
Bleaching Alert Area
Operational Since 2005
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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10
Daily Outlooks for a future week from an ensemble member
SST: sea surface temperatureCFS.v2: Climate Forecast System v2
Weekly Outlook for the future week
NOAA Coral Reef Watch
CFS.v2-Based Weekly Outlook
Alert Level 2
WatchWarning
Alert Level 1
90%
60%
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 20
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleForecasting Bleaching: 4-Month Bleaching Outlook
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title style3rd Global Bleaching: Last Half of 2014
Hawai‘i
Guam &
Marianas
S.
Florida
Marshall
Islands
NOAA Coral Reef Watch Satellite Coral Bleaching Alert Area15 September 2014
No Stress Watch Warning Alert 1 Alert 2
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title style3rd Global Bleaching: 2015
Hawaiʻi Caribbean
NOAA Coral Reef Watch Annual Maximum Satellite Coral Bleaching Alert Area 2015
Kiribati
Panamá
British Indian
Ocean Territory
Maldives
Southern
Red Sea
PNG and
Solomon
s
Samoas
Fiji
No Stress Watch Warning Alert 1 Alert 2
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title style3rd Global Bleaching: 2016
Western India Taiwan Vietnam Marianas KiribatiSeychelles Maldives Philippines New Caledonia Palau French PolynesiaKenya/Tanzania Réunion Thailand Fiji Flower GardensMozambique Mauritius Indonesia Micronesia YucatanMadagascar Maldives Japan Marshall Is. Saba
E. Australia Belize
NOAA Coral Reef Watch Maximum Satellite Coral Bleaching Alert Area 2016
No Stress Watch Warning Alert 1 Alert 2
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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15
Great Barrier Reef Bleaching: 2016
2016
Bleaching
2016
Heat StressHughes et al.
(2017) Global
warming and
recurrent mass
bleaching of
corals.
https://doi:10.103
8/nature21707
29%Mortality
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleGreat Barrier Reef: 2016
The lack of fish was an indication that there was “complete ecosystem collapse”
Justin Marshall, Univ. of Queensland
The Guardian 21 July 2016
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title style3rd Global Bleaching: 2017
Southern
Madegascar
1
7
NOAA Coral Reef Watch Annual Maximum Satellite Coral Bleaching Alert Area 2017
GBRSamoas
No Stress Watch Warning Alert 1 Alert 2
Niue
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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18
3rd Global Bleaching: June 2014 - May 2017 Heat Stress
No Stress Watch Warning Alert 1 Alert 2
• Longest global bleaching event ever• Over ½ exposed twice (Guam 4 of 5 years)• Most widespread ever, area > Washington State• >2/3 suffered bleaching-level heat stress• Likely most damaging on record
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleForecasting Bleaching
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title style2015 4-Month Bleaching Outlook: Hawai’i
20
Outlook from July, 60%
Outlook from July, 90%
Observed 2015 Maximum Bleaching Alert Area
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleEnhanced Monitoring2015 Hawai’i Bleaching – DAR “Bleachapalooza”
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleEnhanced Monitoring: Annual Cruises to Jarvis Island
22
Outlook from January 2016, 60%
Outlook from January 2016, 90%
Observed 2016 Maximum Bleaching Alert Area
NOAA now conducting annual cruises
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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Heron Island
Northern GBR
NSW
• ~ 98% dead• < 2% bleached• < 1% “normal”
April 2015 May 2016
NOAA Coral Reef Ecosystem Program NOAA Coral Reef Ecosystem Program
Jarvis Island
Brainard et al. (2018) BAMS.
Ecological impacts of the
2015/16 El Niño in the central
equatorial Pacific
Jarvis Island
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleWhat Can Managers Do?
Thailand
NOAA Coral Reef Watch Maximum Satellite Coral Bleaching Alert Area 2016
Thursday 26 May 2016
Adressing Bleaching Impacts Locally
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title style2. Reduce Local StressorsAdressing Bleaching LocallyLocal managers can:
• Reduce bleaching• Reduce light stress
Small yet economically important effect
Quicksilver Connections
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleAdressing Bleaching LocallyLocal managers can:
• Reduce bleaching• Reduce light stress• Cool reefs,
increase mixing Von Herzen et al. 2010, Ocean Sciences Posters
After 24 hours of cooling
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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Local managers can:
• Reduce bleaching• Reduce light stress
• Cool reefs, increase mixing
• Increase survival• Improve water quality
• Reduce disease prevalence
• Aid recovery• Coral restoration• Encourage recruitment• Protect ecosystem functions (herbivory)
photo from coralrestoration.org
2. Reduce Local StressorsWork Locally to Help Reefs Recover
photo from coralrestoration.org
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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Local managers can:
• Reduce bleaching• Reduce light stress• Cool reefs,
increase mixing
2. Reduce Local Stressors2. Reduce Local StressorsRadical Environmental Intervention: Scaling Up
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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Large Scale Environmental Engineering
• Reduce light stress• Cool reefs
Radical Environmental Intervention: Scaling Up
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleUS National Academy of Sciences Study: A Research Review of Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs
https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25424/a-decision-framework-for-interventions-to-increase-the-persistence-and-resilience-of-coral-reefsGoogle: “National Academy coral study”
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title style2015 4-Month Bleaching Outlook: Hawai’i
31
Outlook from July, 60%
Outlook from July, 90%
Observed 2015 Maximum Bleaching Alert Area
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleAdressing Bleaching Locally2015 Hawai’i Bleaching – DAR “Ark”
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleAdressing Bleaching Locally2015 Hawai’i Bleaching – DAR “Ark”
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleAdressing Bleaching Locally2015 Hawai’i Bleaching – DAR “Ark”
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleAdressing Bleaching Locally2015 Hawai’i Bleaching – DAR “Ark”
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleKey Messages:
• 2014-17 3rd Global Coral Bleaching Event– Worst bleaching and mortality ever
• NOAA CRW’s ability to forecast bleaching enabled resource managers and decision makers to:– Enhance monitoring
– Reduce local stressors
– Rescue rare corals
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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37
Thank you from the
NOAA Coral Reef Watch Team!!
William Skirving (ReefSense)
Andrea Gomez
(CUNY & NOAA-CREST)
Erick Geiger (CICS-UMD)
Ben Marsh (ReefSense)
Mark Eakin (NOAA/NESDIS)
Rob Warner
(NOAA/NOS)William Hernandez Lopez
(CUNY & NOAA-CREST)
Gang Liu (CICS-UMD)Jacquie De La Cour (CICS-UMD)
Roxana Vasile (ReefSense)
Scott Heron (U. Queensland)
Funding from:
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleThank You
Coral Reef Stakeholders’ Use of NOAA Coral Reef Watch Ecoforecasts During the 2014-2017 Global Coral Bleaching Event
C. Mark Eakin, Gang Liu, Jacqueline L. De La Cour, Erick F. Geiger,William J. Skirving, Scott F. Heron, Denise A. Devotta, Andrea M. Gomez, Benjamin L. Marsh, Kyle Tirak
NOAA Coral Reef Watch
@CoralReefWatch
CoralReefWatch
CoralReefWatch.NOAA.Gov
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleBack-to-Back GBR Bleaching
29%Mortality
22%Mortality
Over ½ of GBR
Corals Lost
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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SST
TimeWeek-0 Week-12
Bleaching threshold
(MMMSST+1ºC)
Maximum Monthly Mean SST
Climatology (MMMSST)
Degree Heating Weeks
( HotSpot value duration )
12 weeks
1°C
b ca d
HotSpots: instantaneous stresscumulative
measure of
thermal stress
intensity and
duration
during the
most-recent
12-week period
≥ 4 DHWs significant coral bleaching is expected
≥ 8 DHWs widespread bleaching and mortality are expected40
NOAA Coral Reef Watch
Satellite Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Monitoring
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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41After D. Wachenfeld, GBRMPA
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Click to edit Master title styleFuture Warming
Models show most coral reefs with severe bleaching annually by 2050Reefs at Risk Revisited, 2011
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