Routinely taking humanitarian action before a disaster or health emergency happens, making full use of scientific information on all timescales
Early Warning, Early Action
Why Early Warning Early Action?
Extreme events have implications on health, livelihoods, water, food security, and more
Climate and weather information can help anticipate and prepare for extreme events and changing risks.
Discussion
Which actions could be taken in Dar es Salaam if there was a very high chance of flooding within 3 days?
Low-Cost / No-Regrets / Co-Benefits Actions
These guidelines help to minimize risks and maximize benefits, especially if a disaster does not occur.
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Humanitarian Action Scenarios
Yes disaster No disaster
Yes forecast-based action; Worthy action Act in vain
No forecast-based action; Fail to act Worthy inaction
How do you decide?
Early Warning Early Action is a function of…
Possible actions
Number of thresholds selected
Cost of action and acting in vain
Losses averted due to action
Lead time of forecast
Funding available
How often you act in vain
How often youtake worthy action
Establishing Forecast Based Financing System: What is needed?
Historical record of disasters Historical forecasts/flood models Potential early actions with cost Facilitated discussion on “acting in vain” Enabling environment
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