© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified,or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.
Drive Market Share Gains -Automotive Industry Insights: Q4, 2009
Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
Presentation Overview
Fourth Quarter 2009 Automotive Market Overview• Vehicles in Operation (VIO)• Vehicle Registrations
• New and Used
• New Vehicle Market Share• Purchase Loyalty
• Corporate and Brand
• Other 2009 Market Impacts• Bankruptcies / Orphan Brands• Cash for Clunkers• Recalls
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 3
Understanding the Automotive Customer Leveraging Experian’s “best in class” data assets
50,000 + adults surveyed annually 8,000+ brands in 450+ product categoriesMeasures television viewing, newspaper and magazine readership, internet usage, radio listening plus mobile700+ psychographic measuresEasily extrapolated to any target file
25 million Internet usersinteracting with one million Websites across 160+ industriesAverage of 60 billion emails sent on behalf of clients per year
Consumer2 million credit inquiries daily1.3 billion transaction updates/month99.9% system availability1.3 second response rate220 million credit active consumers50 million public records
Business22 million businesses
235 million consumers, 113 million households1,500+ data attributes per recordAttitudinal segments and touch-points3,200 public and proprietary sources110 million catalogbuyers148 million magazine subscribers
Approximately 600,000 knownfraud records186+ million cross-industry credit applications215+ million consumer200 +demographic and credit records
Experian has “the most well-regarded compiled consumer file on the market today” The Forrester Wave™: Database Marketing Service Providers, Q1 2006, Forrester Research Inc. January 10, 2006
NationalFraud
Database
600 million+ vehicles in U.S. (all 50 states & Wash. D.C.) and CanadaIncludes title, registration, mileage readings, key vehicle events5B+ vehicle history records, including 270M title brands and 92M accident related events
OnlineActivity
DatabasesCredit
Databases
ConsumerMarketing Databases
Simmons National
Consumer Study
NationalVehicle
Database
Integrated Information Assets
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
VIO
Loyalty
Market Share
Data foundation
NationalVehicle
Database
Comprehensive coverage• Over 600 million total vehicles – U.S. and Canada
• 280 million total vehicles in operation• 825 million titles, 950 million registrations• Seven Terabytes, over 18 billion rows
Direct Sources• Vehicle title and registration data in 50 U.S. states and D.C.• Many other sources, including fleet, auction, maintenance, inspection, warranty, dealer, police
Variety of Metrics• Registration Trends• VIO Reporting• Loyalty Studies
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
VEHICLESIN
OPERATION
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
AutoCount Vehicles in Operation (VIO)
Experian Automotive’s AutoCount VIO is a compilation of all new and used vehicles registered on the road in the U.S.
Quick Facts…
• There are 239,061,943 light duty vehicles on the road
• Down over 721,000 units from last quarter, contributed to by lower vehicle sales, and higher car scrappage rate
• Ford is the most prevalent make, followed by Chevrolet and Toyota
• Hyundai has more than 6.2 million light duty vehicles (ranked seventh)
• Trucks have retaken top place from cars (50.1% vs. 49.9%)
• Average age of all cars and light trucks in operation is 9.6 years
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
Current VIO – Year Model
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2009 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
80 percent of vehicles are less than 14 years old
80%91 million 2000-2005 : aftermarket ‘sweet spot’
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 8
Current VIO – Vehicle Segment
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2009 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Hybrid vehicles represent 0.67 percent of current VIO
2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2009
Current VIO Trends – Vehicle Type
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 10
Experian Automotive – In The News
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 11
VEHICLE REGISTRATION
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 12
U.S. Automotive Market Overview
• Q4 2009 vs Q4 2008, new vehicle registrations have dropped only 40,000 units ( 1.8 percent )
• Compared to drops of more than 1.2 million units each in Quarters 1 and 2
12
Total Vehicle Registrations by Quarter
New Vehicle Registrations
Source: Experian Automotive
Used registrations are increasing in proportion to new registrations: 2.5x new in 2007, peaking at 4.2x in Q1 2009
2008 2009
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 13
U.S. Market – New Vehicle Registrations
New Vehicle Registrations
Q3 and Q4 narrowing gap
compared to Q1 and Q2 which
were down more than 1.2 million
units vs. prior year
Source: Experian Automotive
2008
2009
2008
2009
2008
2009
2008
2009
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 14
Used Vehicle Registrations
U.S. Market – Used Vehicle Registrations
Used vehicle registrations are down slightly in
Q4, but less than in Q1 and Q2
Source: Experian Automotive
2008
2009
2008
2009
2008
2009
2008
2009
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 15
U.S. Vehicle Registrations: New and Used
Source: Experian Automotive
2008
Vehi
cle
Reg
istr
atio
ns
2009
2008 Total: 2009 Total:37,843,216 35,599,038
12,847,151 10,055,351
50,690,367 45,654,389
-5.9%
-21.7%
-9.9%Total
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 16
New Vehicle Market Overview
New Vehicle Registrations – Q4 2009 vs. Q4 2008
Source: Experian Automotive
• Ford, Nissan and Hyundai all had more than 10 percent gains in registrations
• Chrysler showed the largest unit drop (down 61,588 units) and also had the largest percent drop (25 percent down)
• GM was down 8 percent, Honda and Toyota were down slightly
Corporation
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
Segment Registration Trends Q4 2009 vs. Q4 2008
CUV –Entry Level
Hybrid Car
CUV –Premium
Van -Mini
SUV –Lower Mid-
Range
SUV –Entry Level
Upscale Near
LuxuryPickup –Full Size
• CUV segments had greatest unit increases in Q4 2009 when compared to Q4 2008
• SUVs, Minivans and Full Size Pickups showed largest drops
Source: Experian Automotive
New
Reg
istra
tions
CUV –Mid
Range
Sport Car
Touring
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
Market ChangersN
ew R
egis
tratio
ns
Source: Experian Automotive
Equinox and Traverse up a combined 27,000+ units
Ranked by Unit Change
Ram and Silverado down 10,000+ units each
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 19
M&M’s (Market Movers)
Ranked by % change
New
Reg
istra
tions
Source: Experian Automotive
Equinox up 16,568 units
Traverse up 11,055 units
Outback up 10,880 units
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 20
NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q4 Performance
• Further expansion of CUV category• Hybrids continue growth• New entries represent over 60,000
additional sales last quarter
New Vehicle RegistrationsSource: Experian Automotive
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 21
CUV Growth at Expense of SUV Categories
Source: Experian Automotive
SUV Category Disposed
Percent SUV Disposers Purchasing CUV
Segment Purchases by SUV Disposers
Segment Purchased
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 22
MARKET SHARE
OVERVIEW
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 23
Who is up? • Hyundai 1.9% share• Ford 1.2% share• Nissan 0.3% share• Honda 0.2% share
GM
Ford
Toyota
Honda
Chrysler
Hyundai
Nissan
Other
2009
Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
Who is down? • GM -2.5% share• Chrysler -2.0% share
2009 CY vs 2008 CY Market Share
GM
Ford
Toyota
Honda
Chrysler
Hyundai
Nissan
Other
2008
Source: Experian Automotive
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 24
2009 CY vs 2008 CY Market Share
24
Source: Experian Automotive
Manufacturer Market Share Analysis - The ‘Others’
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 25
Q3 2009 vs Q3 2008 Market Share
25
Source: Experian Automotive
• Sedans helping to drive share gains for Subaru, Hyundai, VW and Ford
• Large and Mid-size Pickups impacting General Motors
Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 26
Market Share drivers: Competitive Conquests
Source: Experian Automotive
Chevrolet Share of Sales from Pure Import Conquests
Toyota Share of Sales from Pure Domestic Conquests
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 27
Trends in Toyota Conquesting
Source: Experian Automotive
Toyota Share of Conquest Sales from Competitive Owners
Percent Competitive Owners Defecting to Toyota
When observing the number of owners of key competitive brands returning to market in Q4 2009, the drop in Toyota defections resulted in approx. 12,000 fewer sales for Toyota
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 28
CUSTOMERLOYALTY
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 29
Loyalty Methodology
•Migration Measurement
•Multiple Levels
•Purchase Loyalty
Garage loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned, including vehicles currently in the garage or disposed up to 90 days prior to the new vehicle purchase.
Provides complete view of repurchase activity
Disposal loyalty measure whether a new vehicle purchase matches a vehicle disposed of +/- 90 days of the new vehicle purchase.
Essentially tracking vehicle replacement
Owned Vehicle:
Honda
Honda
Honda
Acura
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 30
Q4 2009 Corporate Loyalty
30
• GM has passed Toyota in corporate loyalty• Ford nearly equal to Toyota• Honda increased gap vs. Hyundai• Chrysler has dropped by more than 12 points
Market Overview - Loyalty
Corporate Loyalty by Month
• Ford loyalty is essentially equal to that of Toyota
• Chrysler‘s dramatic drop in loyalty seems to have stabilized
Source: Experian Automotive
2009
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 31
Brand Loyalty – Top Gainers for Q4 2009
Source: Experian Automotive
• Land Rover had greatest proportional gain in loyalty (nearly 20 percent)
• Subaru had the greatest point gain: more than 5.6 percentage points
• Ford followed closely with a gain of 5.2 points
Q4 2009 vs Q4 2008 Brand Loyalty: ranked by % change
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 32
Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10
Q4 2009 Brand Loyalty
32
Source: Experian Automotive
• Ford Fusion owners were most loyal, with more than two out of three returning to the Ford brand
• Ford vehicles made up six of the top ten in brand loyalty
• Chevrolet Traverse and Impala owners were ranked fourth and sixth respectively
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 33
2007 – Who took from Whom?
64,000
Net UnitsFord (471,254)GM (330,313)Chrysler (225,213)Honda 325,555Toyota 701,225
Net Owner Migration
GM Ford
Toyota
Chrysler
Honda
Source: Experian Automotive
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 34
2009: Who’s taking from Whom?
40,600
Net UnitsGM (239,900)Chrysler (205,500)Ford (56,800)Honda 206,300Toyota 295,900
Net Owner Migration
Chrysler
Toyota
GM Ford
Honda
Source: Experian Automotive
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 35
Experian Automotive – In The News
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 36
CASH FOR CLUNKERS
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 37
Cash for Clunkers
Program OverviewTrade in old, low mpg vehicle for new, higher-mileage vehicleVouchers of $3,500 or $4,500 depending on vehicle type, mileage, etc. July 1 through August 24, 2009$3 billion in government fundsNetted 690,114 new vehicles sales
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 38
Cash for Clunkers: What Brands were Purchased?
38
Brands Purchased by Clunker Disposers
Source: Experian Automotive
Brands Disposed in Clunker Program
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 39
Cash for Clunkers: What Brands were Purchased?
39
Top Brands Purchased by Clunker Disposers
Source: Experian Automotive
Ford:
Toyota:
Dodge:
Chrysler: Honda:
Chevrolet:
17,6573,284
195,370 74,028118,562
11,226
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 40
Cash for Clunkers: In-Market Impact
40
Number of Months since Last New Vehicle Purchase
Source: Experian Automotive
• Vehicles traded in for Clunker vouchers were on average nearly 3 years older than non-clunker vehicles disposed for new vehicle purchase
Average Age in Months of Disposed Vehicle
• Those participating in clunker program had been out of new vehicle market for 20 months longer on average when compared to non-clunker owners
Disposed Vehicle
Disposed Vehicle
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 41
Experian Automotive – In The News
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 42
ORPHAN BRANDS
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 43
Where are Pontiac owners Going?
Pre-Orphan Estimate
Based on purchase patterns in ‘pre-orphan’ timeframe, majority of Pontiac owners were not likely to return to remaining GM brands
Source: Experian Automotive
Q4 Actual
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 44
Impact of GM Streamlining:
Source: Experian Automotive
GM
Ford
Toyota
Honda
Chrysler
Hyundai
Nissan
Other
Brands Purchased by Pontiac Owners
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 45
Conclusions
New and used registrations appear to have hit bottom in early/mid 2009, and appear to be on upswingGM seems to have stabilized share in second half of 2009 while Chrysler continued downward trendNewer segments such as CUV (now at 60+ vehicles) continue to expand, but are pulling sales from existing SUV and minivan categories Battle for market share continues to be very interesting, as Ford and Hyundai successes continue, and smaller manufactures seize opportunityToyota managed to maintain market share in 2009 in face of tough challengesCash for Clunkers program represented a quarter of Q3 2009 new vehicle registrations
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 46
Questions?
© 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 47
Top Related