Dr. László JAGER
University of West-Hungary
Sopron, Hungary
Some links between environment, innovation and forestry
1. Referendum for a nuclear plant
NO
YES
price 312.000.000 euro equal to establishment
of 80.000 ha new forest
2. Referendum for the longest bridge of Central-Europe
NO
YES
Starting point: a simple system
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
start 12.00end 13.00growing speed : double in every minute
How do they feel 5 minutes before the collapse?
A complex system
number of possible positions: 9.49*1053
mass of the Earth: 5,97 *1024 kg
An even more complex system
Forecast:
1 day 5 days 2 week
90% 60% 20%
10 years
?
The risk function
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
time f1 f2 f3 f4 output
1 0.57641 0.754041 0.087397 0.661217 2.930212
2 0.694056 0.971184 0.543355 0.885419 3.338004
3 0.819548 0.478271 0.117397 0.971323 2.44474
4 0.231788 0.193183 0.927876 0.73431 2.714669
5 0.641474 0.309163 0.09659 0.913749 2.141619
6 0.369127 0.878816 0.327152 0.599449 3.243293
7 0.903224 0.135955 0.576825 0.003595 279.7488
8 0.928812 0.275931 0.553416 0.569124 3.515243
=100/(f4*100)+f3+f2+f1
Environmental factors:•Sustainable development •Waste •Noise •Air pollution •Water •Nature and biodiversity •Soil protection •Climate change
changes
•unpredictable
•random
•fast
risk
adaptation
innovation
Some facts of environmental features
http://shpud.com/myths.html
Some facts of environmental features
WORLDWORLD
RESOURCESRESOURCESINSTITUTEINSTITUTE
Data Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August 1998. A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September 1994. See http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (1750 to present)
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
part
s pe
r m
illio
n vo
lum
e
Mauna Loa (1958-present)
Siple Station (1750-)
Some environmental facts
The balance of the world?
Tree and human strategies in a changing world
Adaptation to changing environmental factors
tree level
population level
ecosystem level
Adaptation to changing environmental factors
population level
Adaptation on the level of the ecosystem
different species strategies
oak birch
adaptation for sudden changes?
Adaptation on the level of the ecosystem
human strategies.....
The situation is risky but I can handle it
Up to now the situation is not too bad...
Positive outcomes of global warming?
The previous chapters have shown that global warming would, in all probability, produce gains for most Americans. Somewhat higher temperatures would improve health, cut death rates, facilitate transportation, reduce heating bills, and help satisfy people’s taste for warm weather. The major costs would come from higher sea levels and an increase in smog, which rises when temperatures climb. In most cases, those undesirable side effects could be mitigated at reasonable cost. From an American point of view, spending anything to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases is unwarranted.
Anticipation of the behaviour of
- mankind – global level
- countries
- single human beings
The global scale
Kyoto protocol
Kyoto protocol
Kyoto protocol
Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.
How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions?
8.0
5.8
7.6
6.4
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Billi
on t
ons
of c
arbo
n
Business-as-usual
Kyoto Protocol scenario
EU ETS - The European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a mandatory compliance programme for large emitters in the 25 European Union Member States, making it the largest corporate emissions trading scheme in the world. CDM - The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) creates credits Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) from emission abatement projects in developing countries. CERs can be used for compliance in the EU ETS and other national schemes, such as Canada and Japan. JI - Joint Implementation (JI) creates credits - Emission Reduction Units (ERUs) - from projects in developed countries that are signatories to the Kyoto Protocol. In practise most JI activity happens in the former CIS (USSR). National Schemes - There are local domestic schemes for trading carbon in many countries, including the USA, UK, Canada, New Zealand and Japan.
Carbon trade mechanism
Carbon trade mechanism in practice
wonderful theory + market failure
Carbon trade mechanism – the business model
price of the co2 in everyday life
price of the co2 in everyday life
Your household CO2 (kg)
Your personal share of CO2 (kg)
UK average household CO2
(kg)
UK average CO2
per person (kg)
Gas, coal and oil 4,486 897 3,876 1,615
Electricity 1,290 258 3,127 1,303
Private Car 4,991 2,600 1,083
Public Transport 57 869 362
Holiday Flights 600 1,562 651
Total Primary Footprint 6,803 12,034 5,013
Food and Drink 585 * 1,404 585
Clothes and Shoes 486 * 1,166 486
Car Manufacture 715 * 1,716 715
Buildings, Furniture and Appliances
982 * 2,358 982
Recreation and Services 1,546 * 3,711 1,546
Finance and other services 361 * 865 361
Share of Public Services 1,276 * 3,062 1,276
Total Secondary Footprint 5,950 * 14,282 5,950
TOTAL FOOTPRINT 12,753 26,316 10,963
Global warming and forests
Forest activities
Products
What are you expectations for the future?
1938 2007
greatest risk factors:
external factors
nuclear war
bird flu
global warming
earthquakes
internal factors
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