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DoesEconomicsHavean“AfricaProblem”?SomeDataandPreliminaryThoughtsGrieveChelwaPostdoctoralFellowCenterforAfricanStudiesHarvardUniversityVisitingPostdoctoralFellowWitsInstituteforSocialandEconomicResearchUniversityoftheWitwatersrandgrieve_chelwa@fas.harvard.eduORgrievechelwa@gmail.comJune8,2017

VERYPRELIMINARYDRAFT–DONOTCITEORCIRCULATE

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“The ideasofeconomists […],bothwhen theyare rightandwhen theyarewrong,aremore

powerfulthancommonlyunderstood.Indeed,theworldisruledbylittleelse.Practicalmen,who

believethemselvestobequiteexemptfromanyintellectualinfluences,areusuallytheslavesof

somedefuncteconomist.Madmen inauthority,whohearvoices intheair,aredistillingtheir

frenzyfromanacademicscribblerofafewyearsback.”

JohnMaynardKeynes1“Inthisdiscourseoftheblind,thesidewiththemoneyusuallywon.”

EboeHutchful2

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Origins

Thisessay,whichhasaspectsofthepersonal,ismyattemptatgrapplinginamorestructured

waywithmygrowingambivalencetowardseconomics,inparticularthekindthathascometobe

described as “mainstreameconomics”.3 I became fully aware of this ambivalence during the

northernhemisphericsummerof2014whilereadingandfollowingthedebatesaroundThomas

1Keynes,J.M.,1936.TheGeneralTheoryofEmployment,InterestandMoney.PalgraveMacmillan.2 Hutchful, E., 1995. “Adjustment in Africa and Fifty Years of the Bretton Woods Institutions: Change or

Consolidation?”,CanadianJournalofDevelopmentStudies,16(3).3 “Mainstream economics” refers to the dominant type of economics, sometimes referred to as “neoclassical

economics”, that is taught in “leading” universities, especially in theUnited States, andwhose research output

dominates“leading”scholarlyoutletsinthediscipline.Whenmostpeoplecriticizeeconomicsandeconomists,they

arelikelycriticizingmainstreameconomics.

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Piketty’smuchacclaimedbookoninequality,CapitalintheTwenty-FirstCentury.4InSouthAfrica,

whereIwasdoingmygraduatestudiesatthetime,physicalcopiesofbooksreleasedinNorth

AmericaorWesternEuropetendedtoarrivewithadelay.Butthroughthemiracleoftheinternet,

whichinturnspawnedthee-book,IwasabletoreadCapitalandfollowdebatesarounditin“real

time”.Atthetime,mostofmyintellectualheroeswerebasedatuniversitiesintheUnitedStates

owingtoasteadystapleofthetypeofliteratureIwasmadetoconsumeattheUniversityofCape

Town.

Disagreementanddebatearethemainstayofacademia.Butwhatstruckmemostaboutthe

online debates and disagreements aroundCapital were the extents towhichmy intellectual

heroes were willing to go to discredit Piketty. I saw leading economists write in prominent

periodicals thatProfessorPikettyhadneglected todealwith issueXandyetXhadanentire

chapterdedicatedtoitinthebook.ThencamethescandalwiththeFinancialTimes(FT),aleading

newspaperbased in theUnitedKingdom,wherePikettywas accusedof fabricatinghistorical

data5inspiteofthefactthathisbookcamewith200pagesworthofnotesanda100pageonline

dataappendixanticipatingtheaccusations levelledbytheFT.Someof thecommentaryeven

tookonaspectsofbeingpersonal.6Allthis,atleasttome,wasunprecedented.

4Piketty,T.(2014).CapitalintheTwenty-FirstCentury.Cambridge:HarvardUniversityPress5“Pikettyfindingsundercutbyerrors”,FinancialTimes,availableat:https://www.ft.com/content/e1f343ca-e281-

11e3-89fd-00144feabdc06 “France’s ‘rock star’ economist Thomas Piketty ‘beat former lover’, Daily Telegraph, available at:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10807714/Frances-rock-star-economist-Thomas-

Piketty-beat-former-lover.html

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Inthewakeoftheglobalfinancialcrisisandtherecessionthatensued,inequalityre-emergedas

an important topic of debate within economics inspiring several books, even within the

mainstreamvintagewhereinequalityhadtraditionallybeenviewedastheinevitableoutcomeof

a “meritocratic” process.7 Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz published The Race Between

Education and Technology8 in 2010while Joseph Stiglitz publishedThe Price of Inequality9 in

2013.SowhywasPikettyandhisCapitalsingledforwhatwaspatentlyunfaircriticism?

Was it because Piketty had challenged the adequacy of one of the linchpins ofmainstream

economics, namely that one’s income was determined by their incremental contribution to

production?

Hewasbynomeansthefirsteconomistworkingwithinthemainstreamneoclassicalparadigm

tochallengethe“marginaltheoryofdistribution”.JosephStiglitz,inthePriceofInequalityand

indeed inhisacademiccareerhadpointedout,withoutrelent, thepervasivenessofso-called

“market failures” – that is, instances where the workings of perfectly competitive textbook

7SeeMankiw,N.G.,2013.“DefendingtheOnePercent”.JournalofEconomicPerspectives,27(3):21-348Goldin,C.andKatz,L.F.,2010.TheRacebetweenEducationandTechnology.Cambridge:HarvardUniversityPress9 Stiglitz, J.E., 2013.ThePriceof Inequality:HowToday’sDivided Society EndangersOur Future.NewYork:WW

NortonandCompany

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economics broke down.10 As far as I could tell, Stiglitz hadnot received the kindof criticism

reservedforPiketty.

TheonlyplausibleexplanationtomymindwasthatPikettyhadchallengedthehegemonicreign

ofAmericanand,toalesserextent,Britisheconomistsonowningtheconversationineconomics.

Pikettywas,bymanycounts,anoutsider.Exceptforaverybriefperiodintheearly1990s,hehad

spenthisentireacademiccareerinFrance.11Heofcoursepublishedhisworkinleadingscholarly

journalsinthediscipline,whichistosayinUS-basedoutlets.Butthisworkhardlyhadanyimpact

beyondthenarrowgroupofscholarswhowereworkingoninequality.Tomymind,whatwas

differentaboutCapitalwasnotsomuchthataneconomistwasmountingachallengeonthe

hallowed tenets of neoclassical economics but that such a widely publicized challenge was

comingfroman“outsider”.12

L’affairePikettyofthesummerof2014ledmetowardsmyownDamasceneConversion.Priorto

this, I uncritically read the economics literature paying no attention to suchmatters as the

10JosephStiglitzwas,asamatteroffact,awardedtheNobelMemorialPrizeineconomicsforhisworkonmarket

failuresin2001.11AftercompletinghisdoctorateinFrance,heservedasanassistantprofessorattheMassachusetts Instituteof

Technologyforthreeyears.HewritesinCapitalthathisreasonforhurryingbacktoFrancewasthathefoundthe

workofU.S.economistshighlyabstractwithlittleattemptgiventotestingtheorywithdata.12Ofcoursethewhole“insider”“outsider”perspectiveisrelative.ToeconomistsinAfrica,Pikettyisaninsider,after

allmanyofhispublicationshaveappearedinsuchmainstreamjournalsastheQuarterlyJournalofEconomicsand

Econometrica,amongothers.Whatisimportant,however,isthatfromtheperspectiveofU.S.economists,Piketty

wasanoutsider,evenifslightlylesssothanthetypicaleconomistinAfrica.

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“politicsofknowledgeproduction”.Ihadbeensoldontheideathateconomicswasascience,

perhapsonparwithphysics.Therefore,itdidnotmatterthateconomics,particularlythekind

thatmatteredformypartoftheworld,wasdominatedbyvoicesatU.S.universities.Povertyand

underdevelopmentwerepovertyandunderdevelopmentregardlessofwhostudiedthem.Tomy

mind, thedominanceby theU.S.merely reflected the fact that economists based there had

better diagnoses of the ailments that afflicted us. In otherwords, the “market for ideas” in

economicswasperfectlyandfairlycompetitive.

Aftertheeventsof2014,Ibegantowonderifthismarketwasinactualfactamonopolywith

significant barriers to entry erected against “outsiders”. And just as the theory ofmonopoly

predicted“inefficiencies”,didthisstateofaffairs,atleastinpart,explainthedismalnatureof

ourknowledgeondevelopmentandparticularlyonthefailuretoproperlydiagnosetheAfrican

malaise?13,14

Mythoughtsonthiswereinitiallylaiddowninan800wordpieceontheonlineblogAfricaIsA

CountryinFebruaryof2015.15Ishowedinthatpiecethattherewasanunderrepresentationof

African-based scholars on the editorial boards of at least three leading scholarly outlets in

13A2005reviewoftheeconomics literatureongrowthand/ordevelopmentfoundthattherewereat least145

different explanatory variables of growth and/or development with 43 conceptually different theories in the

literature!SeeDurlaufetal.,2005.“GrowthEconometrics”inHandbookofEconomicGrowth.14 On the less than satisfactory state of the economics literature on Africa, see Jerven, M., 2014.Africa:Why

EconomistsGetItWrong.London:ZedBooks.15 “Economics has an Africa problem”, Africa Is A Country, available at:

http://africasacountry.com/2015/02/economics-has-an-africa-problem/

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economicsthathadafocusonAfricaorhadthecontinentassubjectmatter.16Ireferredtothis

underrepresentationaseconomics’“Africaproblem”.Tomysurprise,thepiecereceivedalotof

attention particularly from U.S.-based economists. Some economists expressed shock at the

extentof theunderrepresentationwhileothers, especially themoreprominent voices in the

discipline who also had a large African research portfolio, suggested that Africans were

themselvestoblameforthisstateofaffairs.17

Thisessaycontinuestheconversationstartedbythatblogpostandextendsitinnewdirections.

First,IperformadeeperauditofnotonlytheeditorialboardsofleadingjournalsthathaveAfrica

asafocus(extendedto10)butalsoauditpatternsofauthorshipinthesejournalstofigureout

“whoiswritingaboutAfrica?”.Second,Idrawsomeimplicationsforeconomicsscholarshipof

theresultsofthisaudit.

16TheJournalofAfricanEconomies,JournalofDevelopmentEconomicsandJournalofEconomicGrowth.17Thisisabriefcollectionsomeofthecommentarythatfollowed:“Africaproblemineconomics”,byDavid

McKenziefortheWorldBankImpactEvaluationBlog,availableat:

http://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/blog-links-february-20-understandability-replication-debate-

continues-thoughts-africa-problem;“Doeseconomicshavean‘Africaproblem?’”,MortenJervenforAfrican

Arguments,availableat:http://africanarguments.org/2015/02/13/does-economics-have-an-africa-problem-by-

morten-jerven/;“EconomicshasanAfricaproblem?”,ChrisBlattman,availableat:

https://chrisblattman.com/2015/03/24/economics-has-an-africa-problem/;“EconomicshasanAfricaproblem:

take3”,MarkusGoldsteinfortheWorldBankImpactEvaluationBlog,availableat:

http://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/economics-has-africa-problem-take-3.

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1.2. Contributiontocontemporarydebates

Giveneconomists’ inabilitytopredictthe2007/2008globalfinancialcrisisandtheensuing,at

timesacrimonious,debateson theappropriatepolicy responsewhichexposedhow little the

professionknew18, there isnowadiscussionon theneed to reform theway thediscipline is

taught,especiallytoundergraduates,andthewayresearchisconducted.Thedebateto“rethink

economics”whichinitiallystartedoutasafringeissuenowseemstohavetakencenterstage

receiving coverage in such mainstream outlets as the Financial Times.19 Even the eminent

mainstream growth theorist Paul Romer,who incidentally is the new chief economist of the

WorldBank,hasrecentlyrebukedeconomistsfortheirextreme“mathiness”bywhichhemeans

theirall-to-oftenpracticeof letting“academicpolitics[or ideology]masqueradeasscience”.20

AngusDeaton, theeminentdevelopmenteconomistandNobel laureate,hasrecentlywritten

twoessaysessentiallymakingthepointthatthe“newdevelopmenteconomics”,withitsreliance

on“randomizedcontrolledtrials”andsophisticatedstatisticalmethods,isnotdelivering“deep

knowledge”beyondtellingus,forexample,that“villagers”innorthernZambiatendtosubstitute

mosquitonetsforfishingnetsiftheformerarehandedoutfree-of-charge.21Thecallistonow

18TheacrimonywithwhichthesedebateswereconductedistypifiedbytheexchangesbetweeneconomistsPaul

KrugmanthenatPrincetonUniversity,writingintheNewYorkTimes,andJohnCochraneoftheUniversityofChicago

writingonhispersonalblogTheGrumpyEconomist.19 “Crash and learn: should we change the way we teach economics?”, Financial Times, available at:

https://www.ft.com/content/0dc9b416-8573-11e6-8897-2359a58ac7a520 Romer, P.M., 2015. “Mathiness in the Theory of Economic Growth”,American Economic Review: Papers and

Proceedings,105(5):89–9321 Deaton, A., 2010. “Instruments, Randomization, and Learning about Development”. Journal of Economic

Literature, 48: 424 – 455 and Deaton, A. and Cartwright, N., 2016. “Understanding and Misunderstanding

RandomizedControlledTrials”.NationalBureauofEconomicResearchWorkingPaper22595

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make economics more pluralistic22, that is open it to other methods of knowing beyond

mathematicsandstatistics,andtomakeitmoreinterdisciplinary.23

Second,thereisnowanacknowledgementthateconomicshasagenderproblemparticularlyin

the U.S. where recent work has shown that relative to other disciplines, female academic

economists are underrepresented at the highest levels and fair worse than their male

counterpartsonmanyotheroutcomes.24Thenthereisthediscussionaroundeconomics’“race

problem”–arecognitionthatthediscipline’scurrentsetofmethodologicaltools,atleastthose

ofitsmainstreamvintage,arenotappropriatefordistillingAmerica’sstructuralracialiniquities.25

Theinappropriatenessofthetoolshasbeenarguedtopartlystemfromtheunderrepresentation

ofminoritiesatthehighestlevelsofthediscipline.26Itcomesasnosurprise,somemightsay,that

theinitiativeconfrontingeconomics’“raceproblem”isbeingspearheadedbyAfricanAmerican

economists.27

22Forexample,theCambridgeeconomistHa-JoonChangwantsmoreaspectsof“heterodox”economicstofeature

in undergraduate training while economic historian Morten Jerven wants more of history proper to guide

developmenteconomicsresearchonAfrica.23ThispointismadequitestronglyandeloquentlybyPikettyinCapital.24Cecietal.,2014.“WomeninAcademicScience:AChangingLandscape”.PsychologicalScienceinthePublicInterest,

15(3):75–14125SeeParramore,L.,2016.“Here’sWhatEconomistsDon’tUnderstandAboutRace”. InstituteforNewEconomic

Thinking, available at: https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/heres-what-economists-dont-

understand-about-race26Bayer,A.andRouse,C.E.,2016.“DiversityintheEconomicsProfession:ANewAttackonanOldProblem”.Journal

ofEconomicPerspectives,30(4):221–24227SomeoftheprominentAfrican-AmericaneconomistsspearheadingthisareDukeUniversity’sWilliamDarityand

DarrickHamiltonoftheNewSchoolforSocialResearch.

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Thelastsetofconversationsthatmyessayspeakstoisthemovementregainingtractionacross

muchof theGlobal Southon theneed to “decolonize”university curricula and research. For

example, students engaged in the #FeesMustFall movement in South Africa have made

“decolonization” an inseparable part of their call for free higher education in that country.

Whereasmostoftheactionanddebateistakingplacewithinthehumanitiesandsomesocial

sciences,economicsandthephysicalscienceshavenotbeensparedfromscrutiny.28

Myoverridingobjectivewith this essay is tohopefully start a conversationwithineconomics

similartotheonethathasbeentakingplacein“AfricanStudies”followingtheeventsofthe1969

AfricanStudiesAssociationmeetingsinMontreal,Canada.Atthatmeeting,theblackattendees

boycottedtheproceedings inprotestovertheunderrepresentationofblackacademics inthe

highestechelonsofthedisciplineaswellasprotestingtheEurocentricoutlookofmuchofthe

scholarship. Followingon fromthatmeeting, therehavebeenactiveattempts to redress the

deficitsidentifiedbytheblackacademiccaucuseventhoughthepaceappearsglacialtosome

observers,particularlyintheblack/Africanacademiccommunity.29Curiously,thisconversation

28 See Bassier, I., 2016. “UCT’s economics curriculum is in crisis”. GroundUp, available at:

http://www.groundup.org.za/article/ucts-economics-curriculum-crisis/; Chelwa, G., 2016. “Decolonizing the

teaching of economics”.Africa Is A Country, available at: http://africasacountry.com/2016/04/decolonizing-the-

teaching-of-economics/ ;Prescod-Weinstein,C.,2015.“DecolonisingSciencereadingList”.Medium,availableat:

https://medium.com/@chanda/decolonising-science-reading-list-339fb773d51f#.xwu5x5kpz29SeeOwomoyela,O.,1994.“WithFriendsLikeThese…ACritiqueofPervasiveAnti-AfricanismsinCurrentAfrican

StudiesEpistemologyandMethodology”.AfricanStudiesReview,37(3):77–101;Mkandawire,T.,1997.“TheSocial

SciencesinAfrica:BreakingLocalBarriersandNegotiatingInternationalPresence”.AfricanStudiesReview,40(2):15

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hasnever takenplace ineconomicsespeciallygiven thedisproportionate impactofNorthern

economicsresearchonpolicymakinginAfrica.30

2. DATAANDMETHOD

Inthissectionoftheessay,Idiscussinsomedetailthemethodusedtocollectthedataonwhich

theauditisperformed.

2.1. TheJournals

Asdiscussed in the introduction, theaudit isperformedon10 “leading” scholarly journals in

economicsthateitherexplicitlyfocusonAfricaand/orwhosesubjectmatterisofrelevanceto

thecontinent.“Relevance”isdeterminedbywhetherthejournalhasafocusondevelopment-

related topics including a focus on poverty, land, agriculture, economic history and general

economicpolicy,amongothers.Thedeterminationofwhetherajournal isa“leading”journal

dependsonitsrankingaccordingtoasimpleimpactfactorcalculationforalltheyearsthatthe

journal has been in existence. These are compiled and calculated by the IDEAS/RePEc

bibliographicdatabasewhich,asofOctober2016,rankedatotalof1,691journalsineconomics.

Thesimpleimpactfactoriscalculatedasthe“ratioofthenumberofcitationsbythenumberof

–36;Mama,A.,2007.“Is ItEthical toStudyAfrica?PreliminaryThoughtsonScholarshipandFreedom”.African

StudiesReview, 50(1): 1–26;Pailey,R.N., 2016. “Where is the ‘African’ inAfricanStudies”.AfricanArguments,

availableat:http://africanarguments.org/2016/06/07/where-is-the-african-in-african-studies/30Mkandawire,T.,2014.“ThespreadofeconomicdoctrinesandpolicymakinginpostcolonialAfrica”.African

StudiesReview,57(1):171–198

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items in the series”31 with a higher impact factor signaling influence among academics and

possiblyontheformulationofeconomicpolicy.32

Thiscriterionresultsinthe10journalslistedinTable1belowrankedaccordingtotheirsimple

impactfactorsaspertheIDEAS/RePEcdatabase.

Table1:The10JournalsTobeAudited

RankonIDEAS/RePEcoutof1,691Journals

NameofJournal SimpleImpactFactor

22 WorldBankEconomicReview 25

27 AmericanEconomicJournal:AppliedEconomics 22

36 JournalofDevelopmentEconomics 19

44 WorldBankResearchObserver 17

106 LandEconomics 8

133 AgricultureEconomics 7

135 WorldDevelopment 7

138 EconomicDevelopmentandCulturalChange 7

145 JournalofAfricanEconomies 6

Unranked AfricanEconomicHistory N/ASource:IDEAS/RePEcDatabase

Admittedly,thejournalsinTable1arearrivedatinarough-and-readyfashion.Ideally,onewould

wanttocompilethislistinamoresystematicmannerby,forexample,onlyconsideringthetop

10economics journalson the IDEAS/RePEcdatabase. Suchaprocedurewouldnot,however,

31Seemorehere:https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.journals.simple.html32Notwithstandingthestandardcriticismslevelledatimpactfactorsasameasureofinfluence.See“Hatejournal

impactfactors?Newstudygivesyouonemorereason”.ScienceMagazine,availableat:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/07/hate-journal-impact-factors-new-study-gives-you-one-more-reason

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guaranteethatthejournalssocompiledwouldhavesufficientAfricacoverageorwouldcontain

topics of relevance to the continent. Therefore, the list in Table 1 is compiled in an eclectic

mannerat timesgoing for“bigname” journals like the JournalofDevelopmentEconomicsor

going for a leading journal in a particular subfield likeAgriculture Economics33or going for a

journalwithanexplicitfocusonAfricaliketheJournalofAfricanEconomies.Inanycase,allthe

journals in Table 1with the exception ofAfrican Economic History are ranked in the top 10

percentileofalleconomicsjournalsontheIDEAS/RePEcdatabase.Thesejournals,therefore,are

partoftheelitesetinthedisciplinewhosecontentnotonlyinfluencesfutureresearchbutalso

influenceseconomicpolicy.Anystudentofeconomics,particularlythestudentofdevelopment

economics,withaninterestinunderstandingthechallengesofAfricawillattheveryleastconsult

mostofthetitlesinTable1.

AfricanEconomicHistory(AEH)isnotrankedbecauseIDEAS/RePEcrequiresthatajournalhave

asizablenumberofarticlesforanimpactfactortobecomputed.Sinceitsinceptionin2004,the

journalhadonlypublished76articlesby2015.Inonethelessopttoaudititasopposedto,for

example, the Journal of EconomicHistorywhich is ranked on IDEAS/RePEc because ofAEH’s

explicitfocusonthecontinent.

A question that might arise is why focus on only 10 journals? The answer is simply one of

conveniencegiventhetediousandmanualnaturethroughwhichtheauditisperformed(see2.2.

33HereAgricultureEconomicsistheleadingjournalinthefieldofagricultureeconomicsbecauseithasthehighest

rankofanyjournalinthissubfieldontheIDEAS/RePEcdatabase.

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below).Inanycase,thenumberofindividualjournalarticlesthateventuallygetaudited,at5,356

articles,islargeenoughtoalmostguaranteethereproducibilityoftheresultsobtainedwhere

thenumberoftitlestobeextendedbeyondthe10consideredhere.34

2.2. Theaudit

ThemainfocusofthisessayistoconductanauditofpatternsofauthorshipofthetitlesinTable

1tofigureout“whoiswritingaboutAfricaineconomics”.Theauditproceedsasfollows.First,I

needtodeterminewhetheranindividualjournalarticleorpaperiswrittenonAfrica,whereAfrica

referstothe54countriesthatmake-uptheentirecontinent.35Inordertodothis,Ifollowthe

rulethatanarticleisclassifiedaswrittenonAfricaif:

(1)Ithastheword“Africa”initstitleand/oratleastoneAfricancountryismentionedin

itstitle;and/or

(2)Theword“Africa”appearsinthejournalarticle’sabstractand/oratleastoneAfrican

countryismentionedintheabstract;and/or

(3) The word “Africa” and/or at least one African country is listed in the journal’s

“keywords”section.36

34In“econospeak”,theauditisa“largen”study.35IabstractfromthecommonpracticeofsplittingupthecontinentintoNorthAfricaandSub-SaharanAfrica.36Notalljournalshavea“keywords”section.Butwhentheydo,ittendstoappearrightbelowtheabstract.

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OnceanarticleisclassifiedaswrittenonAfrica,thenextstepistoassignageographicallocation

fortheauthor(s)basedontheirself-declaredinstitutionalaffiliationatthetimeofthearticle’s

publication.Authorsareclassifiedas“African-based”iftheirinstitutionisinAfrica.Thosewhose

institutionisnotonthecontinentareclassifiedas“NotAfrican-based”withfurtherclassifications

for “NorthAmerican-based”, “European-based”or “other”.37 In theevent that anauthorhas

morethanoneaffiliationincludingoneinAfricaandanotheronein,forexample,Europe,then

theauthorisclassifiedas“African-based”irrespectiveofwhethertheAfricaninstitutionislisted

firstorlastbytheauthor.Bythisstandard,avisitingprofessorfromtheU.Sonsabbaticalatthe

UniversityofZambia(UNZA)wouldbecountedas“African-based”foraslongasUNZAwaslisted

asoneoftheauthor’sinstitutionsofaffiliation.Ifanauthorhasmorethanoneaffiliationin,for

example,NorthAmericaandEurope,thenthefirstlistedaffiliationistakenastheauthor’shome

affiliation.

Onequestionthatmightariseiswhyistheclassificationbasedongeographicallocationandnot

descentiftheobjectoftheauditistogetattheheartofthe“Africanvoices”debate?Inother

words,whynotfocusonwhetheranauthor isan“African”scholar(i.e.currently livesonthe

continentorisfromthecontinent)asopposedtousinggeography?Thelattercasemightleadto

thewrongfulattributionofan“Africanvoice” to thevisitingAmericanprofessoratUNZA.Or

perhapsdiscountingthe“voice”ofanAfricanpresentlyemployedatanAmericanorEuropean

university. Whereas the concern is valid, resolving it would require much more detailed

37TheNorthAmericaclassificationcoversboththeUnitedStatesofAmericaandCanada.Theclassification“other”

referstoallinstitutionsnotbasedineitherAfrica,NorthAmericaorEurope.

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informationthan isreadilyavailable.Forexample,downloadingandsiftingthrough individual

authors’curriculumvitaes(CVs).CVsareoftennotavailableonlineformanyauthorsandeven

when theyare, someauthorsopt tonot indicate theirnationalities. Inanycase, the“large”

numberofindividualjournalarticlesconsideredhereanddiscussedinSection3belowimplythat

these cases of what econometricians call “measurement error” are likely to be small and

hopefullyevenoutintheaggregate.38

Thecountingisdoneasfollows:AlljournalarticlesthathaveatleastoneAfrican-basedscholar

aregivenequalweightsof1regardlessofwhetherthearticleissingleauthored,lead-authored

ormerelyco-authoredbytheAfrican-basedscholar.This isdifferent fromtheapproachused

recentlybyBriggsandWeatherswho,intheirpaperauditingthepoliticsscholarshiponAfrica,

givegreaterweighttosole-authoredarticlesbyAfrican-basedscholars.39Lastly,iftheauthorsof

anarticleareallbased inAfrica, thenthatarticle is treatedas if itweresoleauthoredbyan

African-basedauthor.

TheauditisalsoextendedtotheeditorialboardsofthejournalsinTable1usingthegeographical

locationcriteriondetailedabove.

38 Inarecentexercisebut lookingatpoliticsscholarshiponAfrica,BriggsandWeathersuseasimilarmethodto

classifyauthorshipbasedonsimilarpracticalities.SeeBriggs,R.C.andWeathers,S.,2016.“GenderandLocationin

AfricanPoliticsScholarship:TheOtherWhiteMan’sBurden”.AfricanAffairs.39 For example, if a journal article has 3 authors andonly one of them is African-based, then the article gets a

weightingof1/3.Seeibid.

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3. RESULTS

Thissectionoftheessaypresentstheresultsoftheaudit.In3.1.Ireporttheresultsonpatterns

ofauthorshipandin3.2Ireporttheresultsoftheauditofeditorialboards.

3.1. Patternsofauthorship

InTable2,Ilistthetotalnumberofjournalarticlespublishedfrom2005to2015andreportthese

byjournal.40IalsoreportthenumberofjournalarticlesonAfricaandthe“Africashare”,thatis

thepercentageofthetotalwrittenonAfrica.

Table2:Numberofjournals,numberofjournalsonAfricaandAfricaShares,2005to2015

NameofJournal Articlesfrom2005to2015

ArticlesonAfrica

%oftotalonAfrica

JournalofAfricanEconomies 364 364 100%

AfricanEconomicHistory 66 66 100%

EconomicDevelopmentandCulturalChange 291 92 32%

WorldDevelopment 1794 539 30%

AgricultureEconomics 784 205 26%

WorldBankEconomicReview 247 41 17%

JournalofDevelopmentEconomics 995 144 14%

WorldBankResearchObserver 116 13 11%

AmericanEconomicJournal:AppliedEcon. 263 28 11%

LandEconomics 436 26 6%

TOTAL/AVERAGE 5356 1518 28%

40Iexcludeerratagiventhelikelihoodofdouble-counting.Bookreviewsarealsoexcluded.

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Thetotalnumberofjournalarticlespublishedfrom2005to2015inthe10journalsinTable2

was5,356andthetotalnumberonAfricawas1,518accountingfor28%ofthetotal.Thetwo

Africa-specificjournals,JournalofAfricanEconomies(JAE)andAfricanEconomicHistory(AEH),

naturallyhadthebiggestAfricashareoverthisperiod.Outsideofthesetwo,thebiggestAfrica

shareat32%wasfromEconomicDevelopmentandCulturalChangewiththelowestsharedueto

LandEconomicsat6%.WorldDevelopmenthadthehighestabsolutenumberofarticlesonAfrica

at539followedbyJAEwith364.Allinall,theinformationinTable2showsthatAfrica,atone-

thirdofthecoverage,isanimportanttopicofinquiryforthesejournals.

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TogetasenseofthedynamicsbehindtheinformationinTable2,IpresentFigure1thatshows

theevolutionintheAfricashareovertheperiod2005to2015.

Figure1:EvolutionofAfricaShare,2005to2015

FromFigure1weseethattheAfricasharestartedoffin2005at21%andthenstayedaroundthe

averageof28%from2006to2010.Thereafter,ithasbeenincreasinghoveringabovetheaverage

formostofthe2010to2015period.

Figure2presentswhatcanbethoughtofasthemainresultofthisessay.Thefigureshowsthat,

onaverage,only25%ofjournalarticlesonAfricahadat-leastoneAfrican-basedscholaroverthe

period2005to2015.Conversely,onaverage,75%of journalarticlesonAfricadidnothavea

singlescholarbasedonthecontinentovertheperiod2005to2015.

20

Figure2:RepresentationofAfrican-basedscholars,2005to2015

Table3presentsthesameinformationasinFigure2butbyjournalandaveragedovertheperiod

2005 to 2015. The table also presents information on the Africa share taken from Table 2.

AgricultureEconomicsat41%hadthehighestpercentageofpapersonAfricahavingatleastone

African-basedauthor.TheWorldBankResearchObserver(WBRO)hadthelowestpercentageof

representationat0%. Inotherwords,noneof the journalarticles thatappearedonAfrica in

WBROfrom2005to2015hadanAfrican-basedauthor.Laterintheessay,Idiscussinsomedetail

theimplicationsofthisfindingespeciallygivenWBRO’scrucialroleofprovidingnon-technical

summariesof“researchbeingundertakenwithinthe[World]BankandoutsidetheBankinthe

areasofeconomics relevant fordevelopmentpolicy”.41Given its relativelyhigh impact factor

41See:http://wbro.oxfordjournals.org/

21

(seeTable1),WBROsetsthetermsaboutwhat“we”knowordonotknowaboutaparticular

problemineconomicdevelopment.

Table3:Africasharesandrepresentationshares,2005to2015

NameofJournal%oftotalarticlesonAfrica

%withAtleastOneAfrican-basedAuthor

AgricultureEconomics 26% 41%

JournalofAfricanEconomies 100% 28%

LandEconomics 6% 28%

WorldDevelopment 30% 24%

AfricanEconomicHistory 100% 19%

EconomicDevelopment&CulturalChange 32% 16%

JournalofDevelopmentEconomics 14% 14%

WorldBankEconomicReview 17% 11%

AmericanEconomicJournal:AppliedEcon. 11% 10%

WorldBankResearchObserver 11% 0%

ThesharesofAfrican-basedscholarsintheAfrica-specificjournalsAEHandJAEwererespectively

19%and28%.These shares areworth keeping inmindwhen thinkingaboutwhetherAfrica-

focusedjournalsarethebestwaysoftacklingtheproblemofunderrepresentation.

RecallthatFigure2reportsthepercentageofarticlesonAfricathathaveat-leastoneAfrican-

basedauthorirrespectiveofwhethertheyareasole,leadorjustanordinaryco-authoronthe

paper.ItisusefultoknowthepercentageofpapersonAfricawhereAfrican-basedauthorsare

leadorsoleauthorsifonlybecausethesetwocategoriesaremeasuresofinfluenceorsignificant

22

inputontheresearchitself.42InFigure3,Ireportthecombinedpercentageofsingleauthored

andlead-authoredpapersbyAfrican-basedauthors.IalsoreportfromFigure2,thepercentage

ofpaperswithat-leastoneAfrican-basedauthorregardlessofwhethertheauthorissole,lead

oramereco-author.

Figure3:LookingcloselyatLead/SoleAuthorship,2005to2015

42 Although, it appears that economics is unique in this respect. Author names on multi-authored papers in

economicstendtobearrangedalphabeticallyincontrasttootherdisciplineswhereorderingispresumablybased

oncontribution.Onestudyput theestimate for theprevalenceofalphabeticordering in five leadingeconomics

journals(noneofwhichareconsideredinthisessay)at85%.SeeEngers,M.,etal.,1999.“First-AuthorConditions”.

JournalofPoliticalEconomy,107(4):859–883

23

InFigure3weseethatthemore“stringent”criterionofonlyconsideringsoleandleadauthored

papersgivesasmallerlevelofrepresentation:Onaverage,only15%ofjournalarticlesonAfrica

aresole-authoredorlead-authoredbyacademicsbasedonthecontinent.Inotherwords,only

examining the information in Figure 2 might lead to an overestimate of the degree

representation.Figure4reportsseparatelythepercentageofarticlesthataresoleauthoredand

leadauthoredbyAfrican-basedscholars.IalsoretaintheaggregatemeasuresfromFigure3for

purposesofcomparison.

Figure4:Breakingdownleadandsoleauthorship

24

InFigure4weseethatsoleauthoredandleadauthoredpapersbyAfrican-basedscholarswere

publishedataboutthesamerateoverthisperiod.Theaverageshareofsoleauthoredandlead

authoredpapersasapercentageofthetotalwasabout8%inbothcases.Althoughthesharefor

soleauthoredpapersislikelybiasedupwardsgiventhewayIdefinesole-authorshipinthisessay

(seeSection2).What the information in Figure4 shows,however, is that itwasmuchmore

difficulttopublishsinglyorasaleadauthoronanAfricancountryinthejournalsinTable1ifyou

werebasedonthecontinent.

Recall fromFigure2 that, onaverage, 75%of journal articlesonAfricadidnothavea single

African-basedauthorovertheperiod2005to2015.Wethenmightwanttoknowhowthese

“spoilsofexclusion”aresharedbetweenNorthAmerica,Europeandotherpartsoftheworld.

ThisinformationiscontainedinFigure5.43

43RecallthatforpaperswithoutasingleAfrican-basedauthor,Iassignthegeographicallocationoftheleadauthor

(seefootnote42forcaveatsaroundtheinterpretationofauthorpositionalityineconomics).

25

Figure5:SpoilsofExclusion,2005to2005

From the figure we observe that the “spoils” are mostly shared between North American

institutions(mostlyintheUS)andEuropeaninstitutions(mostlyintheUnitedKingdom,Germany

andScandinavia).Onaverage,halfofthepapersonAfricawithoutasingleAfrican-basedauthor

werewrittenbyNorthAmericanauthorswhiletheaverageforEuropewasslightlylessthanhalf.

Thecontributionofthecategory“Other”wasrelativelysmallat6%.44

44ThisismostlyAustralia,JapanandoneortwocountriesinAsiaandLatinAmerica.

26

3.2. EditorialBoards

PerhapsonewayofmakingsenseoftheresultsinSection3.1istolookatthegeographicalmake-

upoftheeditorialboardsofthejournalsstudiedinthisessaygiventheevidencethateditorsdo

influencewhoandwhatgetspublishedineconomics.45Thissubsectionpresentsinformationon

thegeographicallocationoftheeditorialboardsofthejournalsinTable1asreportedbetween

May and October of 2016. Unfortunately, I cannot report the dynamic aspects of board

membershipsimplybecausejournalsdonotpubliclyreportinformationonpasteditorialboards.

Figure6reportstheresultsofclassifyingjournaleditorsaccordingtogeographicallocation–the

10 journals inTable1hadatotaleditorialboardmembershipof269.Thefigurealsoreports,

fromTable2,thepercentageofpaperswrittenonAfricapresentedasthebarinred(thefirst

bar). A rough criterion of “fairness” would be one where the editorial membership closely

reflectedthegeographicalcoverageofthejournals.However,inFigure6weseethatwhereas

aboutone-thirdofthepaperswereonAfrica,only3%oftheeditorialboardwasbasedonthe

continent.46The lion’sshareofeditorialboardmembershipbelongstoNorthAmerican-based

scholarsat69%.

45See:Laband,D.N.andPiette,M.J.,1994.“Favoritismversussearchforgoodpapers:empiricalevidenceregarding

thebehaviorofjournaleditors”.JournalofPoliticalEconomy,102(1):194–203;Hodgson,G.M.andRothman,H.,

1999.“TheEditorsandAuthorsofEconomicsJournals:ACaseofInstitutionalOligopoly”.TheEconomicJournal,109

(453): 165 – 186; Innes, R., 2008. “Editorial Favoritism”. Unpublished Working Paper. Available at:

http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/A/bo10444942.html46OnecritiqueofthiscomparisonisthatIamcomparingadynamicaveragewithastaticone.Thatis,Iamcomparing

anaveragetakenover10yearswithonefromasingleyear.Butevenifwelimitedthedynamicaveragetopapers

27

Figure6:Editorialboardmembership,2015

InFigure7,IcastthespotlightontheeditorialmembershipofthetwoAfrica-focusedjournals

AfricanEconomicHistory(AEH)andJournalofAfricanEconomies(JAE).WeseefromtheFigure

thatbothAEHand JAE fall shortofmy“fairness”criterion.Theybothdedicate100%of their

coveragetothecontinentandyettheeditorialboardsofAEHandJAEhaverespectively14%and

7%oftheireditorsbasedonthecontinent.Thisputsinperspectivetheargumentthatintroducing

moreAfrica-focusedjournalsistheantidotetothecrisisofunderrepresentation.

publishedin2015orinthetwoorthreeyearsleadingupto2015,theconclusionwouldstillremain.Ifanything,

thingswouldworsenbythisroughcriterionof“fairness”.

28

Figure7:EditorialboardmembershipofAEHandJAE,2015

AnotherinterestingtalkingpointfromFigure7istheapparentrelationshipbetweenajournal’s

geographicalhomeandthegeographicalmake-upofitseditorialboard.AEHwhichisbasedin

NorthAmerica (at theUniversityofWisconsin)has86%of itseditorialboardbased inNorth

America.NoneofitseditorialboardisbasedinEurope.JAE,whichisbasedatOxfordUniversity,

hasmorethanhalfofitseditorialboardbasedinEurope,farexceedingtheaverageforEurope

reportedinFigure6.

29

4. IMPLICATIONS

In his 2015 book surveying the last 3 decades of the economics scholarship on Africa, the

economichistorianMortenJervenarguesthat“economistscontinuetogetAfricawrong”47with

the result that “[economic] growth in Africa has been misunderstood, and as a result the

disciplineofeconomicsiscurrentlyunabletogiveusefulpolicyadvice,letalonesimplyexplain

whatishappeningrightnow.”48Mycontentioninthisessayisthatonecannotfullyappreciate

thecritiquesofthelikesofJervenwithoutsomereferencetothedatapresentedintheprevious

sectionof this essay. Tobe sure,African scholars like thedistinguishedMalawian economist

ThandikaMkandawirehaveoftenspokenabouttheunderrepresentationof“Africanvoices”and

how this impacts scholarship.49 These statements have, however, often been anecdotal and

madeinreferencetothegeneralstateofsocialscienceresearchaboutthecontinent.Whatthis

essaydoesisobtainaprecisetriangulationoftheabsenceof“Africanvoices”withspecificfocus

oneconomics.

Before concluding the essay, I would like to highlight four direct implications for economics

researchandeconomicpolicythathavebeendiscernedfrommyworkperusingthemorethan

1,500 individual journal articles onAfrica that I had to consult in collecting the evidence for

Section3.

47Jerven,M.2015.Africa:WhyEconomistsGetItWrong,p248Ibid.,p8–949 See Mkandawire, T., 1997. “Social Sciences in Africa: Breaking Local Barriers and Negotiating International

Presence”,AfricanStudiesReview,40(2):15–36

30

4.1. FauxConsensus

Goodeconomicpolicyshouldbepredicatedonconsensus.MuchofAfrica’spolicymakinghas,

however,beenbasedonthe“consensusofthefew”.Thenowwidelyacknowledgedmistakesof

theStructuralAdjustmentyears50were theresultofa typeofconsensus-drivenpolicymaking

thatwaspreservedfortherevolvingdoorbetweenInternationalFinancialInstitutions(IFIs)and

Northernuniversities.OneofthelinchpinsofStructuralAdjustmentPolicies(SAPs)inAfricawas

theneedtoscalebackthestate.ThisfeatureofSAPsdrewitsinspirationfromscholarlyworkby

“[academics] based in North American universities and [was] immediately embraced by the

World Bank as it developed its political-economic analysis of African policymaking”.51 As the

writingonSAPsbyMkandawireandSoludoshows,suchpitfallsmighthavebeenavoidedhadthe

circleofconsensusbeenextendedtoincludevoicesonthecontinent.52

Themodusoperandiofthe“consensusofthefew”,however,seemstobecarryingonunabated.

A recent special edition of the journalWorld Development on the rather important topic of

industrializationandstructuraltransformationinAfricadidnothaveasinglecontributorfrom

thecontinent.53AndasreportedinSection3,allthepapersonAfricaintheWorldBankResearch

50SeeOstry,J.D.,etal.2016.“Neoliberalism:Oversold?”.FinanceandDevelopment,53(2).51Mkandawire,T.andSoludoC.C.,1999.OurContinent,OurFuture:AfricanPerspectivesonStructuralAdjustment.

Trenton:AfricanWorldPress,p.2452Ibid.53McMillan,M.S.andHeady,D.(Eds).,2014.“EconomicTransformationinAfrica”,WorldDevelopment,63:1–

124

31

Observer,ajournalwhoseprimarypurposeistosynthesizeresearchfindingsforthepurposesof

policy,didnothaveasingleAfrican-basedauthor.

4.2. HegemonicTheories

The point of departure for scholarly enquiry into “policy failure” in Africa are the dominant

frameworksof‘neopatrimonialism’andthe‘publicchoiceschool’that“pointtowardsomeform

ofmalevolentstatesimplyactingonbehalfof,oratthebehestof,rulinginterests”.54Thepublic

choiceapproachtopolicyfailurehasinspiredmanymindsworkingonAfricasinceRobertBates

published his Markets and States in Tropical Africa.55 For its part, neopatrimonialism is

consideredindispensableformakingsenseofpolicymakingduringtheSAPyears.Thego-tobook

formanyeconomistsandpoliticalscientistsonSAPsisNicolasvandeWalle’sAfricanEconomies

andthePoliticsofPermanentCrisis.56VandeWalle,workingfirmlywithintheneopatrimonial

framework,reachestheratherincredibleconclusionthatSAPswereneverreallyimplementedin

Africabecausedoingsowouldhavejeopardizedtheinterestsoftherulingelites.Inspiteofthe

voluminousliteraturethathasdetailedtheimplementationofSAPsacrossthecontinent57,van

54Mkandawire,T.,2015.“NeopatrimonialismandThePoliticalEconomyofEconomicPerformanceinAfrica:

CriticalReflections”.WorldPolitics,67(3),p56755Bates,R.H.,1981.MarketsandStatesinTropicalAfrica:ThePoliticalBasisofAgriculturalPolicies.Berkeley:

UniversityofCaliforniaPress56VandeWalle,2001.AfricanEconomiesandthePoliticsofPermanentCrisis,1979–1999.Cambridge:Cambridge

UniversityPress57See,forexample,Mkandawire,TandSoludo,C.C.,1999.OurContinent,OurFutureandMkandawire,T.and

Soludo,C.C.(Eds),2003.AfricanVoicesonStructuralAdjustment:ACompanionToOurContinent,OurFuture.

Trenton:AfricanWorldPress

32

deWalle’s book is highly favourably cited and is required reading in leading economics and

politicscoursesintheNorth.58

4.3. TheConfluenceofResearchonSomeQuestions

OnestrikingfeatureabouttheeconomicsscholarshiponAfricaisthepreponderanceofresearch

onHIV/AIDS,conflictandcorruption.There isobviouslya“demand” for this typeof research

giventhatthecontinenthashistoricallycarriedafairburdenoftheseunfortunateills.However,

giventrade-offsinherentintheresearchprocess,havinglotsofresearchonconflictorcorruption

impliesthatwearenotlearningaboutother,perhapsequallyimportant,matters.Forexample,

oneofthemostsociallyandeconomicallydisruptiveepisodesinrecentAfricanhistoryhasbeen

theeraofSAPs.Sadly,weknowlittle,atleastaseconomists,aboutthemediumtolong-term

impactsofSAPpoliciesonvarioussocialandeconomicoutcomes.Further,importantresearch

questionsareoftenconceptualizedinwaysthatdonotfacilitatedeeplearning.Forexample,the

economichistorianMortenJervenhaspointedoutthatthestandardresearchquestioningrowth

economicsonAfricahasbeen“whydidAfricanotgrow?”asopposedto“whyhasAfricagrown

atcertaintimesandthensloweddownatothertimes?”.59Thepolicyimplicationsofthesecond

questionareprofound.

58ThebookfeaturesprominentlyonChrisBlattman’s“PoliticalEconomyofDevelopmentCourse”atColumbia

University.Blattmanconsidersthebooktobe“oneof[his]favoritebooksonAfricanPoliticalEconomy”.See:

http://chrisblattman.com/2007/12/09/dear-donors-please-stop-helping-us/59Jerven,M.,2015.Africa:WhyDoEconomistsGetItWrong?

33

4.4. TheLimitsof“Data”

InPoorNumbersMortenJervenmarshalstheevidencetoshowthatAfricanstatisticaldata is

plaguedby“systematicvariationinerrorsandbiases”andwarnsthat“themostbasicmetricof

development,GrossDomesticProduct(GDP),shouldnotbetreatedasanobjectivenumberbut

ratherasanumberthatisaproductofaprocessinwhicharangeofarbitraryandcontroversial

assumptionsaremade”.60ThisisworthbearinginmindparticularlygiventheresultsofSection

3thatexemplifywhatJervenelsewheredescribesastheever“increasingdistancebetweenthe

observedandtheobserver”ineconomicsresearchonAfricawhere“analystsincreasingly[make]

useofdownloadabledatasetstotesteconometricmodels”61.AphenomenonBrankoMilanovic

describesas“Wikipediawith[statisticalanalysis]”.62

60Jerven,M.,2013.PoorNumbers:HowWeAreMisledByAfricanDevelopmentStatisticsAndWhatToDoAboutIt.

Ithaca:CornellUniversityPress61Jerven,M.,2015.Africa:WhyEconomistsGetItWrong,p12062 Milanovic, B. 2014. “My take on the Acemoglu-Robinson critique of Piketty”. Available at:

http://glineq.blogspot.com/2014/08/my-take-on-acemoglu-robinson-critique.html

34

5. CONCLUSION

ThisessayhasprovidedsomeofthefirstevercomprehensiveestimatesofwhatIhavedescribed

elsewhere as economics’ “Africa problem”. About 75% of the papers published on Africa in

leadingeconomicsjournalsdidnothaveasingleAfrican-basedauthorovertheperiod2005to

2015.ThismeasureofunderrepresentationworsenswhenIexcludethosepaperswhereAfrican-

basedscholarsweremereco-authors.Overtlymissingfromthisessayisadeepdiscussionofthe

likelycausesoftheresultsdiscussedinSection3.Suchadiscussionwouldhoweverrequirethe

gatheringofmuchmoreinformationthanthatpresentedhere.Ifanything,thehopeisthat,ina

smallway,thisessaysparksalongoverdueconversationaboutthepoliticsandimplicationsof

thepatternsofknowledgeproductionineconomicsonAfrica.Onceconfrontedwiththeresults

inSection3,itisdifficulttothinkaboutanythingelse–toparaphraseRobertLucas’famousquote

oneconomicdevelopment.63

63Lucas,R.E.,1988.“OnTheMechanicsofEconomicDevelopment”.JournalofMonetaryEconomics,22:p5