©OECD/IEA2017
Digitalization & EnergyGeorge Kamiya, Energy Environment DivisionCOP23 – 16 November 2017
IEA
©OECD/IEA2017
©OECD/IEA2017
Digital technologies are everywhere….
©OECD/IEA2017
Internetdatatrafficisgrowingexponentially,tripling overthepastfiveyears
Sources:Cisco(2017).TheZettabyteEra:TrendsandAnalysisJune2017;Cisco(2015).TheHistoryandFutureofInternetTraffic.
Connectivity trends
©OECD/IEA2017
Electricity use by data centres and networks
Sustainedefficiencygainscouldkeepenergydemandlargelyincheckoverthenextfiveyears,despiteexponentialgrowthindemandfordatacentre andnetworkservices
0
100
200
300
400
500
2014 2020
TWhDatacentres
Hyperscaledatacentres
Clouddatacentres(non-hyperscale)
Traditionaldatacentres
0
100
200
300
400
500
Moderateefficiencyimprovement
Highefficiencyimprovement
2015 2021
TWhDatanetworks
Mobile Fixed
©OECD/IEA2017
Buildings
Widespreaddeploymentofsmartbuildingcontrolscouldreduceenergyuseby10%to2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Bysector Byenduse
PWh
Non-residential
Residential
Others
Appliances
Lighting
Waterheating
Spacecooling
Spaceheating
IEAanalysis
©OECD/IEA2017
Transport
Intelligenttransportsystemsareimprovingsafetyandefficiencyofallmodes,withthemosttransformativeimpactsexpectedinroadtransport
Roadfreight
• Digitalsolutionsfortrucksandlogisticscouldreduceenergyuseforroadfreightby20-25%.
• Digitalsolutionsincludeplatooning,routeoptimisation,anddatasharingacrossthesupplychain
Roadpassenger
• Automation,connectivity,sharing,andelectrification(ACES)todramaticallyreshaperoadtransport
• Impactsonenergydemanddifficulttopredict
• Automationandconnectivitycouldhalveordoubleenergydemand,dependingonhowtechnology,behavior,andpolicyevolve
©OECD/IEA2017
Industry
Energyusecanbeincrementallyreducedattheplantlevelbutwidespreaduseof3Dprinting,AIandroboticscouldheraldtransformativechanges
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Conventionalcomponents
AMcomponents
Tons
Metaldemandin2050
Aluminiumalloys Nickelalloys Titaniumalloys Fuelsavings
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
Slowadoption
Mid-rangeadoption
Rapidadoption
MillionGJ
Cumulativeaircraftfuelsavingsto2050
Source:Huangetal.(2016)
©OECD/IEA2017
Supply: oil and gas, coal, and power
Energycompanieshavebeenadoptingdigitaltechnologiesforyears,toincreaseproductivity,reducecosts,improvesafetyandenvironmentalperformance
Oilandgas
• Increasedproductivity,improvedsafetyandenvironmentalperformance
• Coulddecreaseproductioncostsby10-20%;recoverycouldbeenhancedby5%.
Coal
• Coalminingcanexpecttoseeimprovedprocessesandreducedcostsaswellasimprovedenvironmentalperformance
Power
• PowerplantsandelectricitynetworkscouldseereducedO&Mcosts,extendedlifetime,improvedefficienciesandenhancedstability
• SavingsofUSD80billionperyear
©Schlumberger
©OECD/IEA2017
Pre-digitalenergysystemsaredefinedbyunidirectionalflowsanddistinctroles,
The digital transformation of the energy system
©OECD/IEA2017
Pre-digitalenergysystemsaredefinedbyunidirectionalflowsanddistinctroles,digitaltechnologiesenableamulti-directionalandhighlyintegratedenergysystem
The digital transformation of the energy system
©OECD/IEA2017
Smartdemandresponsecouldprovide185GWofflexibility,andavoidUSD270billionofinvestmentinnewelectricityinfrastructure
Smart demand response
1billionhouseholdsand11billionsmartappliancescouldactivelyparticipatein
interconnectedelectricitysystems
Residentialsector
©OECD/IEA2017
EVssmartchargingwouldprovidefurtherflexibilitytothegridsavingbetweenUSD100-280billioninvestmentinnewelectricityinfrastructure
Smart charging of electric vehicles
EVsstandardvs smartchargingCapacityrequirement
150millionEVs
140GW
75GW
500millionEVs
300GW
190GW
StandardchargingSmartcharging
©OECD/IEA2017
Digitalizationcanhelpintegratevariablerenewablesbyenablinggridstobettermatchenergydemandtotimeswhenthesunisshiningandthewindisblowing.
Integration of variable renewables
Curtailmentofsolar PVandwind(EuropeanUnion)
7%
2040
Digitalflexibility
©OECD/IEA2017
DigitalizationcanfacilitatethedeploymentofresidentialsolarPVandstorage,makingiteasiertostoreandsellsurpluselectricitytothegridorlocally
Distributed energy resources
Blockchain couldhelptofacilitatepeer-to-peerelectricitytrade
withinlocalenergycommunities
©OECD/IEA2017
Building digital resilience
• Todate,cyberdisruptionstoenergyhavebeensmall
• Butcyber-attacksarebecomeeasierandcheaper– malware,ransomware,phishing/whaling,botnets
• Digitalizationalsoincreasesthe“cyberattacksurface”ofenergysystems
• Fullpreventionisimpossible,butimpactcanbelimited:- Raisedawareness,cyberhygiene,standardsettingandstafftraining- Coordinatedandproactivepreparationbycompaniesandgovernments- Designdigitalresilience intechnologiesandsystems
• Internationaleffortscanhelpraiseawarenessandsharebestpractices
©OECD/IEA2017
Managing privacy concerns
Source: Newborough andAugood (1999),“Demand-sidemanagementopportunitiesfortheUKdomesticsector”(reproducedcourtesyoftheInstitutionofEngineeringandTechnology).
©OECD/IEA2017
1. Builddigitalexpertisewithintheirstaff.
2. Ensureappropriateaccesstotimely,robust,andverifiabledata.
3. Buildflexibilityintopoliciestoaccommodatenewtechnologiesanddevelopments.
4. Experiment,includingthrough“learningbydoing”pilotprojects.
5. Participateinbroaderinter-agencydiscussionsondigitalization.
6. Focusonthebroader,overallsystembenefits.
7. Monitortheenergyimpactsofdigitalizationonoverallenergydemand.
8. Incorporatedigitalresiliencebydesignintoresearch,developmentandproductmanufacturing.
9. Providealevelplayingfieldtoallowavarietyofcompaniestocompeteandserveconsumersbetter.
10. Learnfromothers,includingbothpositivecasestudiesaswellasmorecautionarytales.
1. Builddigitalexpertisewithintheirstaff.
2. Ensureappropriateaccesstotimely,robust,andverifiabledata.
3. Buildflexibilityintopoliciestoaccommodatenewtechnologiesanddevelopments.
4. Experiment,includingthrough“learningbydoing”pilotprojects.
5. Participateinbroaderinter-agencydiscussionsondigitalization.
6. Focusonthebroader,overallsystembenefits.
7. Monitortheenergyimpactsofdigitalizationonoverallenergydemand.
8. Incorporatedigitalresiliencebydesignintoresearch,developmentandproductmanufacturing.
9. Providealevelplayingfieldtoallowavarietyofcompaniestocompeteandserveconsumersbetter.
10. Learnfromothers,includingbothpositivecasestudiesaswellasmorecautionarytales.
1. Builddigitalexpertisewithintheirstaff.
2. Ensureappropriateaccesstotimely,robust,andverifiabledata.
3. Buildflexibilityintopoliciestoaccommodatenewtechnologiesanddevelopments.
4. Experiment,includingthrough“learningbydoing”pilotprojects.
5. Participateinbroaderinter-agencydiscussionsondigitalization.
6. Focusonthebroader,overallsystembenefits.
7. Monitortheenergyimpactsofdigitalizationonoverallenergydemand.
8. Incorporatedigitalresiliencebydesignintoresearch,developmentandproductmanufacturing.
9. Providealevelplayingfieldtoallowavarietyofcompaniestocompeteandserveconsumersbetter.
10. Learnfromothers,includingbothpositivecasestudiesaswellasmorecautionarytales.
1. Builddigitalexpertisewithintheirstaff.
2. Ensureappropriateaccesstotimely,robust,andverifiabledata.
3. Buildflexibilityintopoliciestoaccommodatenewtechnologiesanddevelopments.
4. Experiment,includingthrough“learningbydoing”pilotprojects.
5. Participateinbroaderinter-agencydiscussionsondigitalization.
6. Focusonthebroader,overallsystembenefits.
7. Monitortheenergyimpactsofdigitalizationonoverallenergydemand.
8. Incorporatedigitalresiliencebydesignintoresearch,developmentandproductmanufacturing.
9. Providealevelplayingfieldtoallowavarietyofcompaniestocompeteandserveconsumersbetter.
10. Learnfromothers,includingbothpositivecasestudiesaswellasmorecautionarytales.
1. Builddigitalexpertisewithintheirstaff.
2. Ensureappropriateaccesstotimely,robust,andverifiabledata.
3. Buildflexibilityintopoliciestoaccommodatenewtechnologiesanddevelopments.
4. Experiment,includingthrough“learningbydoing”pilotprojects.
5. Participateinbroaderinter-agencydiscussionsondigitalization.
6. Focusonthebroader,overallsystembenefits.
7. Monitortheenergyimpactsofdigitalizationonoverallenergydemand.
8. Incorporatedigitalresiliencebydesignintoresearch,developmentandproductmanufacturing.
9. Providealevelplayingfieldtoallowavarietyofcompaniestocompeteandserveconsumersbetter.
10. Learnfromothers,includingbothpositivecasestudiesaswellasmorecautionarytales.
1. Builddigitalexpertisewithintheirstaff.
2. Ensureappropriateaccesstotimely,robust,andverifiabledata.
3. Buildflexibilityintopoliciestoaccommodatenewtechnologiesanddevelopments.
4. Experiment,includingthrough“learningbydoing”pilotprojects.
5. Participateinbroaderinter-agencydiscussionsondigitalization.
6. Focusonthebroader,overallsystembenefits.
7. Monitortheenergyimpactsofdigitalizationonoverallenergydemand.
8. Incorporatedigitalresiliencebydesignintoresearch,developmentandproductmanufacturing.
9. Providealevelplayingfieldtoallowavarietyofcompaniestocompeteandserveconsumersbetter.
10. Learnfromothers,includingbothpositivecasestudiesaswellasmorecautionarytales.
No-regrets policy recommendations
©OECD/IEA2017
Digitalization: A New Era in Energy
• Theenergysystemisonthecuspofanewdigitalera
• Thisfirst-of-its-kind“DigitalizationandEnergy”reportwillhelpshinealightondigitalization'senormouspotentialandmostpressingchallenges
• Butimpactsaredifficulttopredict;uncertaintyintechnology,policyandbehaviour
• Muchmoreworkneedstobedone…
• NextstepsforIEA,especiallytofocusonhighimpact,highuncertaintyareas:- Automation,connectivity,andelectrificationoftransport- Electricityandsmartenergysystems- Digitalizationanddecarbonisation
©OECD/IEA2017
Digitalization & Energy
1. Introduction:Aneweraofdigitalizationinenergy?
2. Energydemand:transport,buildings,andindustries
3. Energysupply:oilandgas,coal,andpower
4. System-wideimpacts: fromenergysilostodigitally-interconnectedsystems
5. Energyuse bydigitaltechnologies
6. Cross-cuttingrisks:cybersecurity,privacy,andeconomicdisruption
7. Policy,includingno-regretsrecommendations
iea.org/digital
©OECD/IEA2017
Digitalization and trucks
Digitalsolutionsfortrucksandlogisticscouldreduceenergyuseforroadfreightby20-25%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%Energydemand GHGemissions
Netchange
Systemicmeasures
Vehicleefficiency
Fuelswitching
Approximatecontributionofdigitaltechnologies
Source:IEA(2017).TheFutureofTrucks:Implicationsforenergyandtheenvironment.
©OECD/IEA2017
Impacts on road transport energy demand
Roadtransportenergydemandcouldhalveordouble fromautomationandconnectivitydependingonhowtechnology,behavior,andpolicyevolve
-80% -40% 0% 40% 80% 120%
I)Optimisticscenario:"Haveourcakeandeatittoo"
-80% -40% 0% 40% 80% 120%
II)Pessimisticscenario:"Dystopiannightmare"
Heavy-dutyvehicles
Light-dutyvehicles
Energyintensity
Traveldemand
Energydemand
Totalroadtransport energy
• Automation,connectivity,sharing,andelectrification(ACES)todramaticallyreshapemobility
• Impactsonenergydemanddifficulttopredict
Source:Wadud,MacKenzie andLeiby (2016),“Helporhindrance?Thetravel,energyandcarbonimpactsofhighlyautomatedvehicles”.
©OECD/IEA2017
Oilandgas
• Increasedproductivity,improvedsafetyandenvironmentalperformance
• Productioncostsreducedby10-20%;recoverycouldbeenhancedby5%.
Supply: Fossil fuels
Energycompanieshavebeenadoptingdigitaltechnologiesforyears.Digitalizationhelpstoincreaseproductivity,reducecosts,improvesafetyandenvironmentalperformance.
Coal
• Coalminingcanexpecttoseeimprovedprocessesandreducedcostsaswellasimprovedenvironmentalperformanceandsafety
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Conventionaloil
Conventionalgas
Unconventionaloil
Unconventionalgas
Tightoil
Shalegas
%increaseinresources
Oil
Gas
©OECD/IEA2017
Supply: Electricity generation and networks
DigitalizationcouldsavearoundUSD80billionperyear,orabout5%oftotalannualpowergenerationcosts
Power
• PowerplantsandelectricitynetworkscouldseereducedO&Mcosts,extendedlifetime,improvedefficienciesandenhancedstability
0
10
20
30
40
5%lowerO&Mcosts
Efficiency:5%more
electricityoutputperunitoffuel
Efficiency:5%lowertotalnetworklosses
5-yrlifeextensionforpowerplants
5-yrlifeextensionfornetworks
USDbillion(2016) OPEX CAPEX
©OECD/IEA2017
Data centres
Continuedgainsinefficiencycankeepenergyusebydatacentresandnetworkslargelyincheckoverthenextfiveyears.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014 2020
TWhWorld
Hyperscaledatacentres
Clouddatacentres(non-hyperscale)
Traditionaldatacentres
0
1
2
3
4
Currenttrends
Improvedmanagement
2014 2020
TWh
India
©OECD/IEA2017
Data transmission networks
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
2G 3G 4G
Fixed Mobile
kWh/GB
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
EB/year
Mobile
Fixed/WiFifrommobiledevices
Fixed/WiFifromWiFi-onlydevices
Fixed/wired
©OECD/IEA2017
CDA Design & Policy Principles for Energy Efficient Connected Devices
Amongotherthings,theprinciplesaddressnetworkedstandbypoweruse.
• DevelopedbytheG20NetworkedDevicesTaskGroup,consistingofindustryandgovernmentrepresentatives.ThePrinciples havetwofocuses:
• TheCDAVoluntaryDesignPrinciplesprovideguidanceonthekeyfeaturesofenergyefficientconnecteddevices,networksandcommunicationsprotocols- forusebydesigners,manufacturersandprotocolsauthors
• TheCDAPolicyPrinciplesencourageacommonglobalframeworkforthedevelopmentofgovernmentpoliciesandmeasures- forusebypolicymakers
• Availableat:http://cda.iea-4e.org/cda-principles
©OECD/IEA2017
Using digitalization for compliance and evaluation
• China isattheforefrontofusingnewtechnologiesformanagingtheirstandardsandlabellingprogramme
• WhyaQuickResponse(QR)code?- HalftheChinesepopulationusessmartphoneapps- Notpatented,lowcostandeasytouseonexistingenergylabelforappliances
• Benefits:- Guidesconsumerstomakebetterinformeddecisions- Supportslocalcomplianceauthorities,reducingcompliancecostsandsimplifyingdatacollection
- Helpsinthemonitoringandevaluationoftheeffectivenessoftheprogramme
©OECD/IEA2017
Energy use by digital technologies - overview
Cloud(datacentres)
NetworkInfrastructure
TraditionalNetworkConnectedDevices
IoTDevices
Mobiledevices(smartphones,tablets)
Computers(PCs,laptops)
Mobiledevices(e.g.smartTVs,set-topboxes,etc.)
SmarthomeSmarthealthSmartfactorySmartmobility…
Battery/self-powered
Mains-connected(e.g.smartlighting,
smartappliances,etc.)
Source:4ETCP(2016)EnergyEfficiencyoftheInternetofThings
©OECD/IEA2017
The number of installed connected devices may triple by 2020
4billiondeviceswereinstalledworldwideintotalbytheendof2016.Thesedevicesareenablingnewservicesthatmayenhancequalityoflife,butsmartdevicesarenotnecessarilyenergy-efficient.
Global household connected devices installed by the end of 2016 and forecasted for 2020
0
5
10
15
2016 2020
Billions
Smart lighting
Smart appliances
Home automation
©OECD/IEA2017
The popularity of smart appliances is quickly growing
SalesvalueintheEUgrewbytwo-and-halfbetween2015and2016.
Sales value of large smart home appliances in the European Union, 2015-16
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2016
EUR Millions
Other
Space cooling equipment
Clothes washers
©OECD/IEA2017
Smart devices enable new efficiency opportunities
Butmanyoftheseopportunitiesaredrivenbycustomerbehaviour,whichisnotalwaysefficient.
Examples of energy efficiency enabled by household connected devices
Gridlevel
Smartmeters
Time-variantpricing
Loaddisaggregationtechnology
Householdlevel
In-homedisplays
Smartthermostats
DevicelevelIncreasedenergyuse
awarenessbyconsumers
Increasedlikelihoodofappropriatedeviceset-
up
Feedbacktomanufacturerson
consumerbehaviour
©OECD/IEA2017
Smart meters installations are quickly accelerating
Smartmetersdonotdirectlyresultinenergysavingsbutenhanceorenableothersavingsopportunitiesbymeasuringhouseholdelectricityusefrequentlyenoughforhouseholdoccupants(ordevices)torespondinrealtime.
Global contracted installations of electricity smart meters
0
200
400
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MillionsChina
Asia Pacific (excluding China)
Americas
Europe, Middle East and Africa
©OECD/IEA2017
A greater share of appliance electricity use is network-enabled
Thegrowthinnetwork-enableddevicespresentsopportunitiesforsmartdemandresponsebutalsoincreasesneedsforstandbypower
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
TWh
Network-enabled
Not connected
Household electricity consumption of appliances and other small plug loads
©OECD/IEA2017
Connected devices comes with a hidden energy price tag
Networkedstandby,theenergyusedtomaintainthedevice’sconnectiontothewidernetwork,isalsooftenaconnecteddevice’sbiggestdrawonpower.
Average standby power of household connected devices per unit
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Smart LED lightbulbs
Gateways Sensors Actuators Gateways Cameras Appliances Gateways
Smart lighting Home automation Smart appliances
Watts (W)
©OECD/IEA2017
Digitalization: A New Era in Energy?
• Digitalizationiseverywhere;digitalandenergyworldsareintersecting
• Allenergydemandandsupplysectorsarefeelingtheeffects
• Fundamentaltransformationofelectricity– “smartenergysystems”
• Emergingrisksneedtobemanaged,includingbuildingdigitalresilience
• Governmentpolicydesigniscritical;10no-regretsrecommendations
Top Related