Department of Geography and environmental science
Department of Meteorologyp gy
Weathering theWeathering the droughtgStrategies for adaptation under extreme risk and uncertainty
© University of Reading 2008 www.reading.ac.ukOctober 2, 2012
uncertainty
A thought• Seasonal and sub-seasonal prediction and climate
change research has long been dominated by top-d d li f i f ti ith “f f id ldown delivery of information with “far from ideal packaging” (Tall et al., 2012)Thi t h ll• This presents a challenge.
• Given the complex interactions between climate, f flivelihoods and vulnerability and the confines of
institutions (or lack of), how can locally appropriate d t ti l b t i l th t fl t l ladaptation plans be put in place that reflect local
experiences and impacts?
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 2
Climate change: a wicked problem
FoodFood security
Water security
Social protection
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 3
How will rainfall patterns change by 2050?
Sahel rainfall index
Our understanding of the processes governing tropical rainfall is insufficient to predict with certainty a trend f ith i
Biasutti et al J Clim (2008)
of either sign.
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty
Biasutti et al., J. Clim. (2008)
4
C i l d fConvection triggered on soil moisture gradient: signature of surface forced circulation
Convective response to land surface
Land Surface Temperature Anomalies
Convection triggered on soil moisture gradient: signature of surface-forced circulation. Soil moisture can feedback on regional circulations.
Blue contours: LSTA
Wet features
From Chris Taylor CEH
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and UncertaintyHigh resolution visible (1km) MSG
From Chris Taylor, CEHTaylor et al. (2009)
Chain of models: Cascade of uncertaintyGCM
Ensemble
DownscalingT, P, Wind, Solar…
Applications Model eg.
Hydro Model
Sub-daily scale e.g. watershed scale
Operations Model
Climate characteristics, water shed features
Utility Planning e.g. water
e.g. Reservoir output, distribution and demand
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 6
Adaptation
Chain of models: Cascade of uncertainty
Ensemble size = 51, climate size = 450Forecast start reference is 01/04/12Prob(most likely category of precipitation)
<---- below lower tercile
0°N
30°S
30°N
0°E30°E
70..100%60..70%
50..60%40..50%
other
Ensemble size = 51, climate size = 450Forecast start reference is 01/04/12Prob(most likely category of precipitation)
<---- below lower tercile
0°N
30°S
30°N
0°E30°E
70..100%60..70%
50..60%40..50%
other
JAS 201
above upper tercile ---->
0°N30°S
30°N
60°E90°E
40..50%50..60%
60..70%70..100%
JAS 201
above upper tercile ---->
0°N30°S
30°N
60°E90°E
40..50%50..60%
60..70%70..100%
1000’s to 100’s Km
1000’s to 100’s Km
1000’s to 100’s m1000’s to 100’s m
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 7
1000’s to 100’s cm1000’s to 100’s cm
Chain of models: Cascade of uncertaintyff f• Met office seasonal forecasts
compared with outcomes, 1992-2011. Years marked in bold performed particularly poorly.
• “Placebo or pacifier”, ZiloreMumba, previously Head of Forecasting for ACMADForecasting for ACMAD
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 8
From Cornforth, 2012 (Table 1)
The recurring crises in West Africa f• West Africa represents a
textbook example of the devastating impacts of a g phighly variable climate prone to episodes of extreme
tevents. • Africa depends predominantly
on climate for its livelihoodon climate for its livelihood and yet has low resilience and lacks adequate i f ti hi h t binformation on which to base coping strategies.
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 9
Growing evidence that the frequency and extent of droughts have increased as a result of human induced climate change (IPCC, SREX report, Nov 2011) Medium confidence of more intense and longer droughts in some regions, particularly in southern Europe and West Africa.
“Drought is predictable and does not happen overnight. Therefore it should not claim lives nor lead to famine, which results when drought couples with policy failure or governance breakdown or both.”
Luc Gnacadja, Exec Secretary, UN Convention to Combat Desertification 2011Desertification, 2011
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty
IPCC projections into the future
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty
What are the important risks and tradeoffs?
Weather-related event
Affected Died
Flood 19 939 000 9 642
Drought/Famine
110 956 000 4 453
Wi d t 5 687 000 1 335Windstorms 5 687 000 1 335
Extreme Temps 8 000 147
TOTAL 136 590 000 15 713
Numbers of people affected by extreme weather-related events in Africa 1993-2003
TOTAL 136 590 000 15 713
2003EM-DAT data set, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, University of Louvain, Bel. (Conway 2009)
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 12
How to manage risk? Work with uncertainty?
Early warning? Early action?
(b)(a)
Famine Early Warning Network (FEWS) estimated food security outlooks for (a) July-September 2012 for West Africa; and (b) January-March 2011 (issued 31 January 2011) for East Africa, when ‘Extremely Food Insecure’ conditions already prevailed over
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 13
y y pthe Greater Horn of Africa.
3
Bild 13
3 Or difference picture of the crises? link to seasonal forecast?Emily Boyd; 2012-09-28
Skillful forecasting insufficientSkillful forecasting insufficient
Ensemble sForecast staProb(moECMWF
0°N
30°S
30°N
7 size = 51, climate size = 450art reference is 01/04/12ost likely category of prF Seasonal Forecast<---- be
0°E0°E
0..100%60..70%
50..60 recipitation)
elow lower tercile a
30°E
30°E
%40..50%
other
above upper tercile ---->
60°E
60°E
40..50%50..60%
60
JAS 2012System 4
0°N30°S
30°N
90°E
90°E
0..70%70..100%
• 2012 season very wetBut reality is that, 1-15 days
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty
y yout to seasonal forecasting
14
Result is often poor uptake • From talk by Bruce Hewitson, CSIAG (2011)
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 15
What actions?• Practical seasonal forecasting that circumnavigates
the current modeling difficulties (errors due to physics, b ti l ti ) i l i tobservations, resolution) is an early warning system
that provides people with information quickly and in a form that even largely illiterate populations canform that even largely illiterate populations can understand. Bottom up approaches• Bottom-up approaches
– Rainwatch in Niger (drought, sub-seasonal to seasonal)seasonal)
– Red Cross in Senegal (flood, extreme event)
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 16
Rainwatch in Niger
• Rainwatch is an automated rainfall auto ated a amonitoring system that ingests year-to-date station data on a daily basisC t ff ti i t t d
(a)
• Cost effective integrated solutions real-time monitoring of 2011 rainymonitoring of 2011 rainy season in Niger via the Rainwatch project Fig.6 Rainwatch culmulative precipitation
for Niamy (Niger) for 2011
(b)
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty
for Niamy (Niger) for 2011
Boyd, Cornforth, Lamb, Brouder et al. submitted, Nature Reports Climate Change
Rainwatch contribution in AfricaEarly warning can beEarly warning can beEarly warning can be
be based on nowcasting
monitoring, visual and useful to decision
Early warning can be be based on nowcasting
monitoring, visual and useful to decision
K i di id l ithK i di id l ith
useful to decision maker (defined by
Niger Met services)
useful to decision maker (defined by
Niger Met services)
Time frames areTime frames areKey individual with vision and personal
commitment
Key individual with vision and personal
commitment
Time frames are significant long-term
engagement in the region
Time frames are significant long-term
engagement in the region
Monitoring and dissemination by Rainwatch of key
Monitoring and dissemination by Rainwatch of key y
variables (i.e. rainfall, soil moisture,
atmospheric dust), significant to regional
livelihoods and as
yvariables (i.e. rainfall,
soil moisture, atmospheric dust),
significant to regional livelihoods and as
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 18
indicators of climatic variability
indicators of climatic variability
Red Cross early warning in Senegal• Exchange activities are
coordinated by the Senegalese Red Cross and gfocus on providing flood alerts to vulnerable
iticommunities• Community volunteers as
climate information relays,climate information relays, links national level and timing of activities
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 19
Red Cross model contribution in Africa
• Key individual who links across boundaries withacross boundaries with institutions, key individual/Transcended language barriers
• Effective communication of weather as basis to build uponweather as basis to build upon e.g. channels that were previously unknown, starting from the application side
• Time frames significant Red Cross are facilitating the
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty
Cross are facilitating the process
20
What are the key characteristicsof this bottom up forecast system?of this bottom up forecast system?
• Cost-effective innovative solutionsT h i l i li it• Technical simplicity
• Use of local indicators• Polycentric levels of cooperation• Polycentric levels of cooperation• Ease of upscaling• “Help Africa to help itself” (Tarhule Lamb et al 2003) andHelp Africa to help itself (Tarhule, Lamb et al., 2003) and
achieve more effective, equitable and sustainable outcomes at multiple levels
• Caveat that there will always be some level of opportunism, i.e. governance is never perfect (Toonen, 2010 cf Ostrom2010)’
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty
2010) .
21
Oxfam’s polycentric model of resilience
Boyd, Cornforth, Lamb, Brouderet al. submitted (2012)Nature - Climate Change
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 22
What are the features of success?1. A key individual (node) who has vision to energise
long-term engagement and understands influential i t i th t k tpoints in the network governance system
2. Effective communication of current weather3. Time frames are significant because the processes
for building resilience and sustainability can take between 5-20 years to develop
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 23
Looking forwardsThe time is ripe for nations to move forward with the development of a pro-active, risk-based national drought policy WMO Secretary General Michel Jarraud:policy - WMO Secretary-General, Michel Jarraud:
Institutions must establish practical innovations toInstitutions must establish practical innovations to anticipate impending crises:• Identifying rainfall deficits through long-term• Identifying rainfall deficits through long-term
monitoring and timely communication of user-relevant information
• Access to relevant and reliable forecasts and the ability of stakeholders to act on that information.
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 24
Transferability of lessons?
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 25
Setting the scenef f• Insecure sources of food + water (70%, thermal tolerance, few
days, little irrigation, v vulnerable to small changes in rainfall patterns)
• Knock-on threats to security and infrastructure - DarfurKnock on threats to security and infrastructure Darfur conflict, East Africa 2009.
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 26
• Adverse impacts on health - direct and indirect - more vector borne diseases eg. dengue, malaria rise in Ethiopian highlands, 0.5C1980) ->
Looking forwards• Research into the predictability of coupled ocean-
atmospheres is relatively new and exciting – many real li ti f thi h i l di l it ti iapplications for this research, including exploitation in
the development of seasonal forecasting systemsR h l d b l l• Research on seasonal and sub-seasonal scale predictions must fit in with WMO climate services framework and be defined by African stakeholder needframework and be defined by African stakeholder need for locally appropriate adaptation outcomes
Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 27
What are the important risks and tradeoffs?
EP,
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Strategies for Adaptation Under Extreme Risk and Uncertainty 28
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