Denver Workforce
DevelopmentBoard
Meeting
April 12, 2019
Denver Metro Area
Industry and Occupation
Trends and Projections
Ryan Gedney
Senior Economist
Labor Market Information, CDLE April 12, 2019
Role of Labor Market Information office:
• Work contractually with U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics to produce official BLS labor market
estimates for Colorado and sub-state areas
• These estimates are comparable to every
geographic region across the U.S. and across time
• We produce a lot of data, but some of the most
popular are for: nonfarm payroll jobs;
unemployment rate; occupational wages and
employment; and industry wages and employment
• We also generate short (2yr) and long-term (10yr)
projections by industry and occupation for
Colorado and sub-state areas
Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth
Since 2010 (by Area)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Feb 2019, seasonally adjusted
Greeley
Fort Collins
Denver
Colorado
CO Springs
Boulder
GrandJunction
Pueblo
U.S.Non-Metro
CO
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Denver Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth Since
2010 (by Goods-Producing Industries)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Feb 2019, not seasonally adjusted
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mining &
Construction
All
Industries
Manufacturing
Denver Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth Since
2010 (by Service-Providing Industries)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Feb 2019, not seasonally adjusted
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Leisure &
Hospitality
Information
All
Industries
Trade,
Transp.,
& Utilities
Prof. & Bus.
Services
Govt.
Edu. &
Health
Services
Financial
Activities
Other
Services
Largest Projected Employment Gains by
Industry Sector and Substate Area (2017 - 2027)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
Area Industry SectorProjected
Employment Change
Boulder Prof., Scientific, & Technical Services 7,500 (24% of total)
Colorado Springs Health Care & Social Assistance 14,700 (25%)
Denver Health Care & Social Assistance 64,200 (20%)
Fort Collins Health Care & Social Assistance 7,300 (19%)
Grand Junction Health Care & Social Assistance 2,200 (22%)
Greeley Construction 5,200 (17%)
Pueblo Health Care & Social Assistance 2,300 (29%)
Eastern & Southern CO Health Care & Social Assistance 1,400 (23%)
Northwest CO Health Care & Social Assistance 4,100 (16%)
Southwest CO Health Care & Social Assistance 3,900 (23%)
Largest Projected Employment Gains by
Industry Sector for Denver (2017 - 2027)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
Industry SectorProjected
Employment Change
Share of Total
Projected Change
Total, All Industries 323,800 N/A
Health Care & Social Assistance 64,200 20%
Prof., Scientific, & Technical Services 41,900 13%
Construction 35,500 11%
Accommodation & Food Services 31,900 10%
Educational Services 21,300 7%
Retail Trade 18,600 6%
Admin, Support, Waste Mgmt. Services 14,700 5%
Finance & Insurance 14,200 4%
Transportation & Warehousing 13,500 4%
Fastest Projected Annual Average Growth by
Denver Industry Subsector (2017 - 2027)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
2.7%
2.8%
3.0%
3.1%
3.1%
3.3%
3.3%
3.5%
3.5%
3.8%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Warehousing and Storage
Hospitals
Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
Construction of Buildings
Specialty Trade Contractors
Ambulatory Health Care Services
Social Assistance
Couriers and Messengers
Components of Projected Annual
Openings for OccupationsLMI projected annual openings by occupation can be broken into
three parts:
1. Openings due to growth within industries occupations are
concentrated
2. Openings due to transfers between occupations, as workers
explore possible career choices – more common for younger cohorts
3. Openings due to exits out of the labor force, mainly due to
retirements – more common for older cohorts
Transfers and exits can combine to represent openings due to replacement needs
Denver – Total # of
Openings (2017-2027)
Openings Due
to Growth
Openings Due
to Transfers
Openings Due
To Exits
2,174,000
(217,400/year)
323,800
(32,380/year)
1,074,900
(107,490/year)
775,500
(77,550/year)
Share of Total Projected
Openings =>15% 49% 36%
For more information on projections methodology, go to: www.bls.gov/emp/documentation/separations-faqs.htm
Largest Projected Annual Openings by Detailed
Occupation for Denver (2017 - 2027)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term Occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
Occupational TitleAnnual
Openings
Share of Openings Due
to Replacement Needs
Share of Total
Openings
Total, All Occupations 217,400 85% N/A
Combined Food Prep. & Serving
Workers, Including Fast Food8,300 87% 3.8%
Retail Salespersons 7,500 92% 3.4%
Waiters and Waitresses 6,700 91% 3.1%
Cashiers 6,200 96% 2.9%
Customer Services Reps 4,200 90% 1.9%
Laborers & Freight, Stock, and
Material Movers, Hand3,900 87% 1.8%
Janitors 3,600 88% 1.7%
Business Operations Specialists,
All Other3,400 83% 1.6%
Office Clerks, General 3,400 92% 1.6%
Fastest Projected Growth by Detailed
Occupation* for Denver (2017 - 2027)
Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Long-term Occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office
Occupational TitleAnnual
Growth Rate
Annual
Openings
Share of Openings Due
to Replacement Needs
Home Health Aides 4.9% 1,980 70%
Personal Care Aides 4.5% 3,100 77%
Massage Therapists 4.0% 1,100 73%
Plumbers, Pipefitters, Steamfitters 3.7% 820 74%
Medical Assistants 3.6% 930 75%
HVAC Mechanics & Installers 3.6% 540 73%
Software Developers, Applications 3.5% 1,890 65%
Health Teachers, Postsecondary 3.4% 640 69%
Nonfarm Animal Caretakers 3.4% 780 82%
Supervisors of Construction 3.2% 1,370 75%
Electricians 3.2% 1,970 78%
Registered Nurses 3.1% 2,580 62%
*Occupations with at least 500 projected annual openings
Summary• Since 2010, Denver has added jobs at a faster rate than the
State and nearly twice as fast as the U.S.
• Primary industry drivers for Denver’s job growth have
been Construction; Health Services; Leisure & Hospitality;
and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
• We expect those industries to continue to drive Denver’s
job growth over the long-term horizon
• The vast majority (85%) of Denver job openings will be due
to occupational exits and transfers
• However, the most in-demand jobs [measured by openings
due to growth] will be concentrated in high-growth
industries, primarily construction (growing population
needs) and healthcare (aging population needs)
Contact
Information• Email: [email protected]
• Work Phone: 303-318-8858
• LMI Website: www.colmigateway.com
Ryan Gedney
Senior Economist
Labor Market Information, CDLE
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