Other Changes for the Program of Implementation (Issue 11)SWRCB D-1641 Workshop
March 2005
DeltakeepeDeltakeeperrby
Dan Bowman Odenweller
Fishery Biologist
“(f) “Beneficial uses” of the waters of the state that maybe protected against quality degradation include, but are
not limited to, domestic, municipal, agricultural andindustrial supply; power generation; recreation; aesthetic
enjoyment; navigation; and preservation and enhancementof fish, wildlife, and other aquatic resources or preserves.”
PORTER-COLOGNE WATER
QUALITY CONTROL ACT
Not limited to “native fish,” “listed fish,” or “species of special concern.” Charge is “preservation and enhancement of fish,
wildlife and other aquatic resources or preserves.”
Significant Areas of Concern Include
• Apparent decline in zooplankton, herbivores and piscivores in portions of the Delta,
• the lack of monitoring adequate to the task of evaluating the apparent declines, and
• analysis paralysis, leading to deferred action (while CVP-SWP exports increase).
Apparent Decline in Productivity
• Striped Bass Index (SBI) has been below 10 since 1996, both the 2004 SBI and the Fall Midwater Trawl (FMWT) index the lowest on record.
• Other long term indices of striped bass also show a similar trend:– San Francisco Bay Study Midwater Trawl
(SFBS - MWT); second lowest on record– SFBS Otter Trawl (SFBS - OT); same
2nd
lowest
2nd
lowestlowest lowest 2004
3rd lowest3rd lowest3rd lowest3rd lowest2003
lowestlowest2nd
lowestNo index2002
SFBS
(OT)
SFBS
(MWT)FMWTTNS
Rank of relative abundance indices for age-0 striped bass from DFG’s Long Term
Monitoring surveys
Slide courtesy Kelly Souza, CDFG
Striped Bass Index(Linear Plot)
y = -26.911Ln(x) + 114.16
R2 = 0.414
y = -1.8964x + 80.228
R2 = 0.5823
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Year
Str
ipe
d B
ass
In
de
x
SB YOY
Log. (SB YOY)
Linear (SB YOY)
Striped bass
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Year
Abu
ndan
ce in
dex
(thou
sand
s)
20,038
2004 = 53
Striped Bass Indicesare down at historic
lows.
Other species in decline include:
• San Joaquin River Fall Run Chinook Salmon, a steady decline?
– Despite the cyclic pattern, both peaks, the low and the high, show declining trends.
• Salmonids are present throughout the year, making “homestream” flow necessary throughout the year.
San Joaquin River Fall Run Chinook Salmon Escapement(Merced, Tuolumne, and Stanislaus River, and MRFF)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
900001
95
2
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
Year
Nu
mb
er
MRFF
Stan
Tuol
Merced
Central Valley Chinook Salmon and SteelheadSacramento - San Joaquin River Systems
= Adult Migration =Young of the Year Emigration
= Adult Spawning = Yearling emigration
Fall-run July August September October November December January February March April May June July
Adult fall-run migrate into the river system from July through December and spawn from early October through late December. Peak spawning occurs in October and November, although the timing of runs varies from stream to stream.Egg incubation occurs from October through March, and juvenile rearing and smolt emigration occurs from January through June. Although the majority of young Fall-Run chinook salmon migrate to the ocean during the first few months following emergence, a small number may remain in fresh water and migrate as yearlings. *
Late-fall-runJuly August September October November December January February March April May June July
Late-fall-run chinook migrate into the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers from mid-October through mid-April and overlaps the fall-run chinook spawning migration of mid-October through December. Late-fall-run chinook spawn from January through mid-April. Incubation occurs from January through June, and rearing and emigration of fry and smolts occurs from April through mid-October. Significant emigration of naturally produced juvenile late-fall-run occurs through November and December, and possibly January. Emigration of hatchery produced late-fall-run juveniles occurs well into February. *
Spring-run PEAKJuly August September October November December January February March April May June July
Spring-run chinook leave the ocean and begin upstream migration enter the Sacramento river from late January / early February through August; enter natal tributaries mid-Feb thru July. Many early arriving adults hold in cool water habitats through summermid-August through October with the peak in September. Incubation occurs from mid-August through mid-March, emigration of fry and smolts beginning in November and can continue through May. Migration of yearlings from upper tributary watersheds occurs in
* Information from: Restoring Central Valley Streams: A PLAN FOR ACTION, Department of Fish and Game, 129 pp., December 1993 ** Information from: Guidelines for Recommended Time Periods for In-Channel Activities for Winter-run Chinook Salmon *** National Marine Fisheries Service proposed Recovery Plan for The Sacramento River Winter-run Chinook Salmon, August 1997**** Report to The Fish and Game Commission: A Status Review of The Spring Run Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawtscha) In the Sacramento River Drainage. Candidate Species Status Report 98-01, June 1998, CDFG
Adult Migration Incubation & Emergence
Adult Spawning Rearing
CV SteelheadJanuary February March April May June July
McEwan, D.R. Central Valley steelhead. in Proceedings of the Central Valley Salmonid Symposium, 1997. R. Brown, ed., Calif. Dept. of Fish and Game Fish Bull. accepted for publication.
Central Valley Chinook Salmon and SteelheadSacramento - San Joaquin River Systems
August September October November December
Adult fall-run migrate into the river system from July through December and spawn from early October through late December. Peak spawning occurs in October and November, although the timing of runs varies from stream to stream.Egg incubation occurs from October through March, and juvenile rearing and smolt emigration occurs from January through June. Although the majority of young Fall-Run chinook salmon migrate to the ocean during the first few months following emergence,
August September October November December
Late-fall-run chinook migrate into the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers from mid-October through mid-April and overlaps the fall-run chinook spawning migration of mid-October through December. Late-fall-run chinook spawn from January through mid-April. Incubation occurs from January through June, and rearing and emigration of fry and smolts occurs from April through mid-October. Significant emigration of naturally produced juvenile late-fall-run occurs through November and
August September October November December January February March April May June
Spring-run chinook leave the ocean and begin upstream migration enter the Sacramento river from late January / early February through August; enter natal tributaries mid-Feb thru July. Many early arriving adults hold in cool water habitats through summermid-August through October with the peak in September. Incubation occurs from mid-August through mid-March, emigration of fry and smolts beginning in November and can continue through May. Migration of yearlings from upper tributary watersheds occurs in
**** Report to The Fish and Game Commission: A Status Review of The Spring Run Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawtscha) In the Sacramento River Drainage. Candidate Species Status Report 98-01, June 1998, CDFG
Juvenile Emigration
August September October November December
Where is the period that does not concern us, as related to the salmonid flow needs?
When can we safely recirculate Sacramento River water in the San Joaquin River system, without disrupting either: a) Juvenile outmigrant imprinting, and/or b) adult migration cues?
Other species, continued
• Delta Smelt, that showed the lowest abundance on record in the 2004 FMWT. – About five years ago we were seriously
considering a petition to reduce their status from Endangered to Threatened.
– The last three years have been of serious concern.
• Longfin Smelt in FMWT, declining trend since 1995.
• American Shad in FMWT, down from 2002-2003.
• Threadfin Shad in FMWT, down in 2002-2003-2004.
• Splittail in FMWT, declining trend since 1998.
American shad
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Year
Abu
ndan
ce in
dex
(tho
usan
ds)
No
sam
ple
No
sam
ple
Delta smelt
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Year
Abu
ndan
ce in
dex
Longfin smelt
0
10
20
30
40
50
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Year
Abu
ndan
ce in
dex
(tho
usan
ds)
81,79062,549
60,059
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Abu
ndan
ce in
dex
(tho
usan
ds)
15,268Threadfin shad
No
sam
ple
No
sam
ple
Fall Midwater Trawl Survey Results
(CDFG Data, courtesy Kelly Souza)
No
sam
ple
No
sam
ple
Splittail (all ages combined)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Year
Abu
ndan
ce in
dex
No
sam
ple
No
sam
ple
Fall Midwater Trawl (FMWT) Catch of Splittail
CDFG Data (Figure courtesy Kelly Souza, CDFG)
Lower Trophic Levels
• Zooplankton production low.– Competition from introduced species, and– the new zooplankters unavailable to the fishes.
• Phytoplankton production low
• Overall productivity appears low.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
N. mercedis A. bowmani N. kadiakensis
Fall Mysid Abundance
P. amurensis
L. tetraspina
Nu
mb
er p
er c
ub
ic m
eter
CDFG Data - Courtesy of W. Lee Mecum, CDFG
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Eurytemora Pseudodiaptomus
Fall Calanoid Abundance
P. amurensis
L. tetraspina
Nu
mb
er p
er c
ub
ic m
eter
CDFG Data - Courtesy of W. Lee Mecum, CDFG
Monitoring Plans, adequate to the task?
• Survey grid example would appear to be inadequate to track changes in the south Delta.
– The one “South Delta” station would appear to be in the Central Delta, and
– there are no stations in the South Delta, except perhaps along the San Joaquin River.
San Pablo Bay
Carquinez Strait
Suisun BaySacramento River
San Joaquin River
South Delta
Who me?
CDFG Data - Courtesy of W. Lee Mecum, CDFG - Modified by Author
Meanwhile we have
“Analysis Paralysis,”
and
Increasing Exports
CVP and SWP Exports (1957-2002)
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
199
319
9519
9719
9920
0120
03
Water Year
Acr
e F
ee
t
CVP
SWP
Total
Export Trend since 1995
10 11 12 1 2 34 5 6 7
8 9
1957-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2005
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Ave
rag
e E
xp
ort
s
Month (Water Year)
Dec
ade
CVP Average Monthly Exports by Decade
1957-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2005
Note the summer increases in exports, to make up for the curtailments (VAMP) in the spring. Average exports in acre feet per month.
Annual Plant Capacities 4300 cfs = 3.1 maf 4600 cfs = 3.3 maf 5200 cfs = 3.9 maf
10 1112 1
2 34
5 67
89
1957-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2005
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Ave
rag
e E
xp
ort
s
Month (Water Year)
Dec
ade
SWP Average Monthly Exports by Decade
1957-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2005
Note the summer increases in exports, to make up for the curtailments (VAMP) in the spring. Average exports in acre feet per month.
Annual Plant Capacities 6300 cfs = 4.6 maf 6680 cfs = 4.8 maf 8500 cfs = 6.2 maf10300 cfs = 7.5 maf
Recommendations:
• A moratorium on increases in exports from the Estuary until “we can all get better together.”
• A comprehensive monitoring program for the Estuary and Delta needs to be implemented:
– Water quality monitoring to be directed at all constituents of concern, not just electrical conductivity and dissolved oxygen.
– Fisheries monitoring for all species, not just species of special concern.
Recommendations, continued:
• Listed species to be fully recovered before we put any additional stress on the ecosystem.
• Home stream water (San Joaquin River origin) must be used to augment flows in the San Joaquin River from above the Merced River confluence through the Port of Stockton (including recirculation flows).
• Use Delta Mendota Canal water to replace the water used to augment San Joaquin River flows.
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