23.9.2013
Czech Economy in 2013 Q3
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 2
GDP: There and back again …
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
%, y/y
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 3
… into recovery ?
-4,0 -3,5 -3,0 -2,5 -2,0 -1,5 -1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0
%, q/q, s.a.
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 4
… before re-conquering the peak
575 600 625 650 675 700 725 750 775 800 825 850 875 900 925 950
CZKbn, f.p. 2005, SA
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 5
Czech catching-up …
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 6
… in the European perspective
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 7
Industrial output and confidence
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20 output, 3M MA, y/y, %, confidence, 3M MA
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 8
Construction seized by pessimism
-65
-55
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30 output, 3M MA, y/y, % confidence, 3M MA
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 9
Retail sales: real wages, taxes, jobs
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-10
-5
0
5
10
15 sales, 3M MA, y/y, % confidence, 3M MA
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 10
Unemployment: amidst the desert
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
RU/JV, 3M MA
HUR, 3M MA
Euroarea, HMN, 3M MA
%, persons
Long-term unemployment rate (2012)
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 11
Youth unemployment (age 15-24, 2012)
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 12
Regional unemployment (July 2013)
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 13
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 14
Growing openness of the economy
Record trade surpluses
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 15
-175 -150 -125 -100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Export, 12M MA
Import, 12M MA
TRADE BALANCE, 12M
CZK bn CZK bn
TRADE BALANCE, 12M
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 16
Both export and import dropping y/y (?)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Export Import
y/y growth, %, c.p.
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 17
Key Czech trading partners (2012)
EXPORT
IMPORT
External balance – current account
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 18
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 19
Consumer inflation: below target …
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 %, y/y
CNB inflation target Headline inflation
Predictions: Headline inflation - Financial markets´ inflation expectations Monetary policy inflation
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 20
… but still elevated fuel prices
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Gas Diesel
CZK/l
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 21
European perspective
77
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Price level index (2012), EU27=100
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 22
Convergence process 1995-2012
Prices
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 23
General government debt
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 24
Long-term sovereign bond yields
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 25
Crown used to be strengthening …
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
CZK/EUR
CZK/USD
monthly average, CZK/LCY
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 26
… also in real terms
-12 -8 -4 0 4 8
12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56
Index growth against Jan 1996 Index growth, y/y Trendline
Index, %
Real appreciation of koruna
Investment Research l Czech Republic l 27
Key macroeconomic indicators
23.9.2013
Thank you for your attention.
Martin Kupka Investment Research
www.csob.cz
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. CSOB cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources CSOB believes to be reliable, CSOB does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a CSOB judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
Top Related