Jeffrey S. PasselPew Hispanic Center
Latin American Migrationto the United States:Trends and Impacts
Latin American Migrationto the United States:Trends and Impacts
“Expert Group Meeting on International Migration and”Development in Latin America and the Caribbean”
CONAPO & UNFPA Mexico City, DF — November 30–December 2, 2005
• Demographic Background -- Emergence of Latin sources -- How many? When did it start?
• What Are They Like? -- Socioeconomic characteristics -- Legal status & Labor force
• What Are Their Impacts? -- U.S. population & economy -- Origin & destination impactss
Immigration TodayImmigration Today
Demographic TrendsDemographic Trends• Growing Numbers & Percents
-- Mass migrations of ’70s
• What Drives the Flow? -- Recent peak or downturn?
• Emergence of New Centers -- Spread of unauthorized flows -- Mexicans and others
• Maturation of Some Flows? -- “Californization” spreading?
Millions of Immigrants
* “Additional” immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens.
Europe/Canada (Legal)
Additional*
All Other (Legal)
14-16+(est.)
0.1
2.8
0.6
2.32.61.7
0.5
4.1
6.0
9.0
3.7
5.2
7
3.8
1.0
2.5
15+?
10
21st Century:
Latin Flows Emerge in’60s21st Century:
Latin Flows Emerge in’60s
0
250
500
750
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Rise, Peak, Decline, & ??Rise, Peak, Decline, & ?? Start Peak End
Annual Immigration (in 000s)
Legal Permanent Residents(LPRs)
UnauthorizedMigrants
Legal TemporaryMigrants
Note: Unauthorized exceed LPRs after 1997.
Percent Approaches Historic HighsPercent Approaches Historic HighsImmigrant Numbers Keep Growing --Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing --
0
10
20
30
40
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Foreign-Born Population (millions)
Percent Foreign-Born of Total
14.8 Percent
35.2 Million
(2005 CPS)
4.7 Percent
42-43 Million
13.5 Percent
12.1 Percent(2005)
Percent Approaches Historic HighsPercent Approaches Historic HighsImmigrant Numbers Keep Growing --Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing --
0
10
20
30
40
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Foreign-Born Population (millions)
Percent Foreign-Born of Total
Latin American-Born Population 35.2 Million
(2005 CPS)
900,000(1960)
42-43 Million
20 Million(2005)
Undocumented Clearly atNew High -- Trend Uncertain
Undocumented Clearly atNew High -- Trend Uncertain
3.9
4
3 3.3
5
2.5
10.3(2004)
8.4
Millions of Illegal Aliens Living in the U.S.
4-80 6-891-82 6-86 10-9610-92 4-00 3-04
Legal Permanent Resident (LPR)
Aliens(10.4 million) 29%
Temporary Legal Residents
(1.2 million) 3%
Refugee Arrivals-- (Post-’80)
(2.5 million) 7%
Unauthorized Migrants
(10.3 million) 29%
35.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2004(Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS)
Legal Status of ImmigrantsLegal Status of Immigrants
Naturalized Citizens (former LPRs)
(11.3 million) 32%
Latin Americans & Asians
Dominate Foreign-Born
Latin Americans & Asians
Dominate Foreign-BornOther Latin America -- 23%
8.2 million
Africa & Other -- 4%1.5 million
Europe & Canada -- 15%5.5 million
Asia -- 25%9.0 million
Mexico -- 32%11.2 million
35.3 Million Foreign-Born in 2004(Adjusted March 2004 CPS)
Undocumented AreLargely Latin
American
Undocumented AreLargely Latin
American
10.3 Million in March 2004
OtherLatin America -- 24%
2.5 million
Africa & Other -- 4%0.4 million
Europe &Canada -- 6%
0.6 million
Asia -- 9%1.0 million
Mexico -- 57%5.9 million
.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .222.486 .641
.377 .454 .576 .760
4.5
6.7
9.2
2.2
.103 1.4%3.0%
8%
16%
23%
9.2%8.3%
6.7%5.2%
0
2
4
6
8
10
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
30%
Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born PopulationPercent of Mexican Population in U.S.
Rapid Growth of Mexicans Continues
Rapid Growth of Mexicans ContinuesMillions of Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born
31%10,650,000
(2004 CPS)
13%12%7%
37%58%57%
47%
29%13%
400
660680
390
1,100
550
650
990
575
El Salv Guat Hond Oth CenAm
Cuba D.R. Haiti Jam. OtherCarib
Legal
Unauthorized
Central America similar to Mexico
Caribbean Flows Largely Legal
Central America similar to Mexico
Caribbean Flows Largely LegalForeign-Born Population, 2004and Percent Unauthorized
40%33%
16%23%23%37% 10%
275 290
630
450
210280
1,175
Braz Col Ecua Guyana Peru Oth SAmer
Mid-East
Legal
Unauthorized
South American Flows SmallerRelative to Others
South American Flows SmallerRelative to Others
Foreign-Born Population, 2004and Percent Unauthorized
Immigrants Are ConcentratedImmigrants Are Concentrated
35.3 Million Foreign-Born(Adjusted March 2004 CPS)
Texas – 10%(3.5 million)
New York – 11%(3.9 million)
Florida – 9%(3.2 million)
Arizona – 3%(970,000)
New Jersey – 5%(1.6 million)
All Others – 31%(11.0 million)
California – 28%(9.8 million)
Illinois – 4%(1.4 million)
New Immigration Growth CentersNew Immigration Growth Centers
Immigration CategoriesMajor Destinations (67% of Immigrants) (6)
All Other States (23)
New Growth States (1990-2000 > 91%) (22)Top 10 Growth States (135-274%) (10)
Unauthorized Concentrated,but Spreading
Unauthorized Concentrated,but Spreading
California – 24%2.4 million
10 Million for 2002-2004
Florida – 9%850,000
Texas – 14%1.4 million
New York – 7%650,000
Arizona* – 5%450,000-500,000
Illinois – 4%400,000New Jersey – 4%
350,000North Carolina* – 3%
300,000
All Others – 32%3.1 million
45%
15%
11%9%
4% 4%
14%
4% 4%7%
9%
24%
CA NY TX FL IL NJ All Other
1990
2004
Major Redistribution Away From
Big 6 Settlement States
Major Redistribution Away From
Big 6 Settlement StatesPercent of Total Undocumented Immigrant Population
39% -- 3.9 Million
12% -- 400,000
New Growth --> High % UndocumentedNew Growth --> High % Undocumented
2004 Composition CategoriesHighest % Undocumented (40-60%) (19)
Lower % Undocumented (20-29%) (13)High % Undocumented (30-35%) (8)
Lowest % Undocumented (<20%) (11)
Very Highest % (46-60%) (11)
Note: Revision based on adjusted March 2004 CPS .
21 %
3 %6 %6 % 6 %
21 %
California Texas Arizona Illinois All Others
1990 (4.5 Million)
1996 (6.7 Million)
2004 (10.6 Million)
Mexicans Diversify, Too
Mexicans Diversify, Too Percent of U.S. Mexicans58% -- 2.5 million
38% -- 4.1 million
29% -- 3.1 million
12% -- 0.5 million
19%
6%7%
4% 4%
15%
5%
2%
23%
Mexico Belize CostaRica
El Salv Guat Hond Nicar Panama Canada
`
Many Mexicans/Salvadorans in USMany Mexicans/Salvadorans in USPercent of County and Country’s
Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004
Share of“Central American”
Population in U.S. —
9%
Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.
12%10%
24%
9%
22%
33%
28%
17%
12%
P.R. Bahamas Barbad Cuba Dom Rep Grenada Haiti Jamaica Trin &Tob
`
Larger Share of West Indians in USLarger Share of West Indians in USPercent of County and Country’s
Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004Share of
“Caribbean”Population in U.S. —
15%
Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.
1%3%
34%
1% 1%1% 2%1%0%1%
Arg Bol Brazil Chile Col Ecuad Guyana Peru Urug Venez
`
Only Guyana Sends Large ShareOnly Guyana Sends Large SharePercent of County and Country’s Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004
Share of“South American`”
Population in U.S. —
1%
Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.
Characteristics of UnauthorizedCharacteristics of Unauthorized
• Who Are They? -- Mainly in Families -- Relatively Young -- Almost All Work
• What Are They Like? -- Low Education -- Jobs reflect Skills -- Low Education -- Lack of Insurance
Unauthorized Families
Mixed Composition
Unauthorized Families
Mixed Composition
13.9 million inUnauthorized Families (2004)
UnauthorizedChildren
1.6 million14% of all
unauthorized
Other Adults400,000
U.S. CitizenChildren
3.1 million67% of kids
Adult Women3.9 million
44% of Adults
Adult Men4.9 million
56% of Adults
62%
34%
11%
5%
21%
30%
13%
48%
10%
18%
25%
52%
8%
30%
Mex C Am Carib S Amer P.R. Other Mex C Am Carib S Amer P.R. Other
Nativ
es
Education “Hourglass” & “Diamond”Education “Hourglass” & “Diamond”
Less than High SchoolGraduate
College Degreeor Beyond
Share of Each Group’s 25-64 Population, 2004
Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
91%
77%
86%
50%
69% 68%
59%
66%63%
90%
81%
90%83%
73%
Mex C Am Carib S Amer P.R. Other Mex C Am Carib S Amer P.R. Other
Nativ
es
Men more likely to work; Women lessMen more likely to work; Women lessMales
Females
Labor Force Participation, Ages 18-64, 2004
Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
Unauthorized in Lower Wage & Education Occupations
Unauthorized in Lower Wage & Education Occupations
Service Occupations33% – (15%)
6.3 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2004
Transportation &Material Moving
8% – (6%)
Management, Business, &Professional 10% – (35%)
Production, Installation, &
Repair16% – (10%)
Construction & Extractive17% – (6%) Farming, etc. 3% – (1%)
Sales & Admin. Support13% – (27%)
Note: Share of native workers falling in the “major” occupation groupis shown in parentheses. Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
Unauthorized Over-Represented in a Few Industries
Unauthorized Over-Represented in a Few Industries
Construction17% – (7%)
All OtherIndustries
17% – (43%)
Leisure & Hospitality18% – (8%)
Other Services6% – (5%)
Wholesale & Retail Trade12% – (15%)
Professional & Business Services 12% – (15%)
Manufacturing15% – (12%)
6.3 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2004Note: Share of native workers falling in the “major” industry groupis shown in parentheses. Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
$29,600
$41,500$44,100
$54,700
$20,500
$28,000
$21,100$23,300
$31,200
$36,900
$28,300
$33,800
Mex Cent Am Caribbean P.R.-born S Amer All Other
Incomes Increase with Time in USIncomes Increase with Time in US
Natives$47,800
In U.S. <10 Years In U.S. 10+ Years
Average Family Income, 2003
$15,000
$20,700$20,200
$25,400
$9,500
$11,600$12,300
$11,800
$14,200
$10,100
$17,900
$14,400
Mex Cent Am Caribbean P.R.-born S Amer All Other
Income per Person SuffersIncome per Person Suffers
Natives$24,100
Average Family Income per Person, 2003
In U.S. <10 Years In U.S. 10+ Years
316
186
288
257
230
210 241
317
347377
351
395
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
"Fitted" Trend 1960-2000
No Post-1960 Immigration
Main Projection
No Post-2000 Immigration
Low Immigration (-50%)
High Immigration (+50%)
Immigration Drives GrowthImmigration Drives GrowthPopulation in millions
53
6.7
37.7
24.5
15.810.2
14
52
67
8571
95
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
"Fitted" Trend 1960-2000
No Post-1960 Immigration
Main Projection
No Post-2000 Immigration
Low Immigration (-50%)
High Immigration (+50%)
Immigration Critical for HispanicsImmigration Critical for HispanicsPopulation in millions
Projected Role ofImmigrants in Work
Force
Projected Role ofImmigrants in Work
Force• Immigration Drives Growth
• Education Upgrading of LF -- Better Education -- “Aging Out” of Low Education
• Aging Population, 2010-2030
• Immigrants Help Social Security -- Relatively Small Impact -- Offsets from More Children
198
142
151
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Middle Immigration Series
No Post-2000 Immigration
Labor Force Grows in FutureDriven by Immigration (esp. after 2015)
Labor Force Grows in FutureDriven by Immigration (esp. after 2015)
Labor Force (in millions)
• Large, Increasing Flows Overall
• Increases Due to Unauthorized
• Responsive to Origin &Destination -- Job Availability in U.S. -- Conditions in Mexico & Elsewhere
• New Destinations Emerge
• Decrease from Peak in Response to Economic
Decline
Migration Flows to U.S.Migration Flows to U.S.
• Large Numbers (10+ million)• Scattered Around Country• Mixed, Young Families• Significant “Investments”• Potential Economic Mobility• Continued High Demand (?)• Opening Up to New Flows
(?)
Impact of New ProgramsImpact of New Programs
For more information,contact:
Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D.Pew Hispanic CenterPew Research Center
1615 L St., N.W.Washington, D.C. 20036
Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D.Pew Hispanic CenterPew Research Center
1615 L St., N.W.Washington, D.C. 20036
(202) [email protected]
www.pewhispanic.org
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