Current Correctional Population Trends
James Austin, Ph.D.JFA Institute
FIGURE 2A: Reported Crime and Population:Las Vegas MPD Jurisdiction 1995-2010
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
UCR Part I Crimes
Population
UCR Part I Crimes Axis Population Axis
NOTE: The FBI's Uniform CrimeReports for 1997 did notshow the reported crimefor the Las Vegas MetropolitanPolice Department jurisdiction.
Prison Population Trends
FIGURE 3: Accuracy of JFA's February 2011 ForecastTotal Male Inmate Population: January 2011 through February 2012
11,000
11,250
11,500
11,750
12,000
12,250
12,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2012
Feb2012
2011
# o
f in
mat
es
Male (Actual)
Male (Projected)
Avg Monthly Numeric Difference: 36Avg Monthly Percent Difference: 0.3%
FIGURE 4: Accuracy of JFA's February 2011 ForecastTotal Female Inmate Population: January 2011 through February 2012
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2012
Feb2012
2011
# o
f in
mat
es
Female (Actual)
Female (Projected)
Avg Monthly Numeric Difference: 7Avg Monthly Percent Difference: 0.7%
FIGURE 12: Projected Male New Comittment Admissions and Stock PopulationApril 2012 Forecasts
12,07811,883
12,268
4,217 4,3234,269
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
# o
f in
mat
es (
pro
ject
ed)
Male Stock 4/12
Male NC Admits 4/12
FIGURE 13: Projected Female New Comittment Admissions and Stock PopulationApril 2012 Forecasts
1,005
1,044
1,073
613 629644
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
# o
f in
mat
es (
pro
ject
ed)
Female Stock 4/12
Female NC Admits 4/12
6,842
7,111
6,876
7,1417,322
7,500 7,4767,687
8,446
9,281
8,834
8,406
7,647
7,403
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Figure 5. Nevada Probation Population 1998-2011
AB 510 July 2007
1,113
1,314
1,408
1,585
1,7081,672
1,502
1,141
1,287
1,405
1,328
1,408
1,702
1,783
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Figure 2. Nevada Parole Population 1998-2011
AB 510 July 2007
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%Ju
l-02
Sep-
02
Nov
-02
Jan-
03
Mar
-03
May
-03
Jul-0
3
Sep-
03
Nov
-03
Jan-
04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep-
04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep-
05
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep-
06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep-
07
Nov
-07
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Sep-
08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Figure 3. Nevada Department of Parole Success Rates FY 2003-FY 2009
AB 510 July 2007
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jul-0
2
Sep-
02
Nov-
02
Jan-
03
Mar
-03
May
-03
Jul-0
3
Sep-
03
Nov-
03
Jan-
04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep-
04
Nov-
04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep-
05
Nov-
05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep-
06
Nov-
06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep-
07
Nov-
07
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Sep-
08
Nov-
08
Jan-
09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Figure 6. Nevada Probation Success Rates FY 2003-FY 2009
AB 510 July 2007
Class Bs
Large Number of Class Bs Placed on ProbationNumber Charge
107 Assault with a Deadly Weapon29 Attempted Sexual Assault91 Battery
402 Burglary101 Child Abuse29 Child Pornography118 Coercion23 Discharging a firearm60 Driving under the influence of alcohol20 Embezzlement54 Ex felon/ Prohibited person possession firearm35 Fail to stop on signal of peace officer/eluding/evading37 Grand Larceny25 Home invasion30 Impersonating another/stealing/using ID information of another37 Leave scene of accident99 Lewdness with a minor under 149 Manslaughter
19 Obtain money/property/services under false pretenses120 Theft36 Reckless driving under the influence of alcohol
235 Robbery245 Sale/Possession of controlled substance80 Other
2,041 Total
Recidivism
• There are three ways to measure recidivism– 3 years return to prison rate– 3 year re-conviction rate– 3 year re-arrest rate
• National return to prison rate is 44-45%• Nevada return to prison rate is 25%• Why Nevada’s rate has and continues to be low
– Significant number of people release to CA or ICE– Number of low risk people– Deterrence of imprisonment– Treatment effects– Maturation effects
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