CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out
Volta Basin Science and Reflection MeetingOuagadougou3‐6 July 2012
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Outline
‐ V1 research question and expected outputs, timelines and linkages‐ Research findings : synthesis of Stakeholder Consultations‐ Research findings (draft) : do we know how much AWMi already exist?‐ Research findings (draft): Cases of AWMi in Ghana and Burkina Faso with PGIS‐ Young Professionals poster presentations with draft results(LUNCH)‐ Research findings (draft): Outscaling tool developments using Bayes model, database and interface‐ Findings (draft): Innovation and learning‐ Next steps of V1
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out
Project aim, status and linkages in VBDC
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Objective of V1 is to develop and evidence a knowledge‐based tool to assess and map the likelihood that a given intervention will be successful in given locations, at the basin scale. Secondly , evaluate potential environmental impacts of outscaling at basin‐scale.
“The project seeks to answer the question of what AWMi can work where and why”
V1 Expected Results & Contribution to Volta BDC
Outscaling tool with improved capacity to target areas of particular interventions to contribute to poverty alleviation and (resilient ) development pathways in a collaborative way with boundary partners
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
An iterative research process in dialogue with stakeholders and potential end usersSeveral human capacity elements incl. MSc and professional training
Research activity: Develop protocolSynthesise data CPWF phase 1
Consultation activity: Protocol, identify cases
External actors: local agents in ag. development,( public, NGO)Researchers in ag-water
Research activity:Assess casesDevelop model tool and databases
Research activity:Improve tool and databaseCharacterise CPWF L/V field sitesCharacterise potential outscaling locations
Consultation activity: Test prototype tool
12 m 24 m 36 m
External actors: Local/regional agents in ag. development,(public, NGO)Investors in ag. development
Consultation activity: Provide learning events in out-scaling toolDemonstrate/share /distribute research outputs
External actors: Local/regional/national, international agents in ag. water and rural development,public, NGOs, possibly private sectorInvestorsNational, international decision makers
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
LINKAGES with other VBDC projects and CPWF basins
Initial plan: Actual interactions:
- Cross-project partners
- V1 contributing to V2 review
- In-kind contribution of information
- Ex-post domain analysis of sites (outstanding)
- Topic Working Groups
- Initiative by Kizito, and contribution of resources
- Collaborations external to VBDC
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out
V1 (& L1) Synthesis of initial stakeholder consultations
By V1 partners prepared by Annemarieke de Bruin
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Result: No pattern in success or failure related to complexity of technology Type of technology Failure Successful ??
Rainfed Soil and water conservation/DRS/CES
SA ‐ BFBF
Planting pits BF‐Zim
Trench technology SA SAConservation agriculture SA SA
Bunding Gha Gha BFContour bunds/ridges/ploughing Zim Gha‐Zim
Tied ridges Sa‐Zim Sa‐Gha‐BFCover crop GhaTree planting SA‐ Gha‐BFBunding Gha GhaMulching SA‐Zim SA ZimShallow groundwater GhaShallow wells Gha BFWaste water re‐use Zim ZimTreadle pump SA BFWater pumps (small scale irrigation)
Gha Gha
Sprinkler irrigation SA‐Zim Zim ZimDrip irrigation SA‐Zim SA‐Zim BF‐Zim
Punched bag ZimMicro irrigation GhaSupplemental irrigation (rice) BF
Roof Rainwater Harvesting Zim
Ferro‐cement tanks SAEarth dams SA ‐ Gha BFUnderground level dams SA
Full irrigation Small dams/reservoirs SA BF BF‐Zim
Large scale irrigation SA
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Result: Best practises (‘due diligence’) was stated as having significant impact on success/failure of AWMi
South Africa (n=11) Zimbabwe (n=13) Ghana (n=16) Burkina Faso (n=6)
Factor category
Success %
Failure % Success %
Failure % Success %
Failure % Success %
Failure %
Natural 9 9 27 31 24 10 25 16
Human 26 13 25 28 18 21 14 8
Social 30 6 7 3 3 6 11 24
Physical 4 17 11 14 18 25 11 28
Financial 4 17 9 6 9 15 7 12
Other 26 38 20 19 27 23 32 12
Other= ‘BEST PRACTISE IN IMPLEMENTATION’•Community owns initiative
•Early engagement with stakeholders
•Continuous assistance/backstopping, Appropriate implementation
•Direct benefit, Clear demand
•Clear objective
•Appropriate design of technology
Definition of a success• Direct benefit of well-being
• Substantial practise beyond >2 years intervention to end-user
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out
Do we know how much land already under AWMi?
Prepared by Joanne Perry, Jennie Barron based on review by Douxchamps et al,
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Learning from the past – following V2 review Douxchamps et al ,V1 Presentation from 3rd IFWF 16 Nov 2011
Farmers already manage rain and have AWMi, but to what extent and to what impact?
• We have identified 3 major streams of technology adoption and adaptation
SWC, small reservoirs, irrigation with small electric/diesel pumps
What impact have these changes?
• Look at high level impacts addressing desired benefits (yield food security, income), undesired externalities on environment (water resources ,flows appropriation, ES loss)
Can we measure these benefits and impacts at various scales? Can we estimate extent of AWMi in use?
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Learning from the past: map with sites of documented ground assessment of SWC adoption
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Learning from the past: example of dataAWMi development per region Cereal yield (t/ha) per region
No conclusions yetMore data needed
Verification?(we don’t agree…..)
Participatory GIS Assessment ‐Burkina Faso and Ghana
presented by Mariam Balima (INERA) and Mathias Fosu (CSIR‐SARI)
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Purpose of PGIS• To validate information from
consultation meeting• To validate the Bayesian
Model
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Methodology• Google maps of selected
towns in Burkina and Ghana
• High Level stakeholder consultation and mapping
• Community level consultation & mapping
• ‐ identification of prominent features, landmarks & techs.
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Methodology cont..Community level mapping
• ‐ Take GPS coordinates of features, landmarks & techs not captured on Google map
• ‐ Georeferencingof features, landmarks and technologies.
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Technologies identified
GHANA BURKINA FASO
Treadle Pumps + +Shallow wells + +Dugouts + +Small reservoirs + +Stone and Earth bunds + +Water pumps + +Tree /Field crop integration
‐ +
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Résultats préliminaires (Ghana)
1. Petits réservoirs• Largement rependus et communément utilisé• Disponible en saison sèche• Réduction de l’exode rurale
Problème: maintenance des infrastructures
2. Puits de bas-fond utilisable en saison pluvieuse maistarissent pendant la saison sèche3. Pompage nécessite une source d’eau pérenne
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
4. Boulis, spécifiquement pour l’abreuvement des animauxProblèmes:
• Faiblement construits• N’est pas adapte pour l’agriculture de contre-saison• Généralement de petite taille et par conséquent l’eau tarit
rapidement• Perte de l’eau par infiltration• Ensablement des ouvrages5. Digues en terre et en pierreCommunément utilisé en zones dotées en pierres avec une
pente > 20%
Observations généralesAu delà des pompages, toutes les techniques identifiées sont
utilisées par les hommes et aussi bien les femme
Résultats préliminaires (Ghana) (cont)
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
• Croissance de l’adoption et de l’adaptation des technologies par lesbénéficiaires
• Accès des ouvrages à toutes les couches sociales
• Amélioration du niveau de vie des communautés (sécurité alimentaire,éducation, santé)
• Diversification des revenus (réduction de la pauvreté)
• Participation à la gestion durable des infrastructures
• Renforcement des capacités des producteurs en terme d’organisationet d’engagement
• Contribution à la réduction de l’exode rurale
• Amélioration des facteurs de productions
Résultats préliminaires (Burkina Faso)
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
• Meilleure disponibilité de l’eau pour des usages multiples en saison sèche: irrigation et l’abreuvement des animaux
• Meilleure rétention d’eau pour l’agriculture pluviale
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Similarities and différence
Simalarité– même technologie utilisée au Ghana et au Burkina Faso
– Les problèmes des technologies sont identiques (exemple la gestion et l’utilisation des petits réservoirs sont identiques)
Différence‐ 7 technologies (Burkina) et 6 (Ghana)‐
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Conclusion• Les informations obtenues lors des PGIS confirment celles des ateliers de consultations
• Les petits barrages sont plus importants dans la gestion de l’eau
• Toutes les technologies sont accessibles de façon égale aux hommes et aux femmes à l’exception des motopompes
• Les technologies ont contribué à la réduction de l’exode rurale
• Les technologies ont contribué à l’augmentation des productions et a l’amelioration du niveau de vie des beneficiaires
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Limites
• difficultés d’obtention de données quantitatives
• Longueur du temps d’enquête (4 à 5 heures)• Indisponibilité d’image récente et de cartes topographiques aux échelles adaptées (1/50 000 eme)
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Perspectives
• Utilisation des données PGIS pour valider le modèle bayésien
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Merci pour votre attention
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out
V1 Young professionals(poster session)
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out
Targeting and scaling out toolEric Kemp Benedict with contributions from Annemariekede Bruin, Frank Annor, Douglas
Wang
Background
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
V1 Project• Aim: To produce a framework and web‐based “decision support”,
(or targeting and scaling out tool) that will assist in identifying sites where the introduction of AWM interventions for smallholder farming systems are likely to be successful.
• Related projects– Extrapolation domains– Bayesian poverty mapping– AgWater Solutions suitability maps– Nile Basin outscaling tool
• The novelty of this approach– Including social and institutional factors– Eliciting information from experts on the ground– Open‐source infrastructure
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
CPWF History (1):Extrapolation Domains
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
CPWF History (2):Bayesian Poverty Mapping
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Outside of CPWF:AgWater Solutions
• Suitability map for small reservoirs
• Data– Biophysical– Economic
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Current CPWF Work:Nile BDC N3
Landscape-level analysis
Combining expert insights and dataIncluding social and institutional data
• Similar goals• Similar inputs• Perhaps less flexible (?)• Outscaling is important, and the world needs more than one method
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
The Targeting Problem
• We want to out‐scale agricultural water management (AWM) technologies
• We want to pick sites where the chances of success are relatively good
• A good way to decide is through rapid assessment in the field at prospective sites
• But where to do the rapid assessments?
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
The Pre‐targeting Problem• Decide where conditions are promising enough that it is worth investing in a rapid field assessment
• Only use existing and easily accessible data that is available over a large part of the basin
• Other considerations:– Make it affordable– Build on accumulated experience and knowledge
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Conceptual Model• There are factors that contribute to the success or failure of AWM technologies– Biophysical– Social and institutional– Technological– Implementation‐specific
• The factors usually cannot be observed directly, but there is indirect evidence that that they are present or absent
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Realities• The needed data are incomplete and imperfect
• No model can capture all the complexities of agricultural communities and their environments
• There will be continued learning and therefore a need to update the model
Specifics
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Implem.
Structure of Bayesian ModelEvidence
Factors of success
“Pseudo-factors”*
* Reduce the number of model parameters
Indicator of success
Implementation factors
Implementation score
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Experts Provided Guidance on Sources of Evidence
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Experts Provided Guidance on Sources of Evidence
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Experts Provided Guidance on Sources of Evidence
…but we still need to collect most of the data
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
( |{ })jP s e =
For the Mathematically Inclined
Probability of success given observations (evidence)
?
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
{ }( |{ }) ( |{ }) ({ } |{ })
i
j i i jf
P s e P s f P f e=∑
For the Mathematically Inclined
Probability of success given
factors of success
Probability of factor of success given evidence
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
1{ }{ }
( |{ }) ( |{ }) ( | ) ({ } |{ })i i
n
j i i i i jif f
P s e A s f P f f P f e′
′
=
⎛ ⎞= ′⎜ ⎟
⎝ ⎠∑ ∏
For the Mathematically Inclined
A “noisy-and” «et-bruyant» relationship:Factor of success 1 and factor of
success 2 and factor of success 3 … must be present, but we don’t have
perfect information
Status
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Status
• General model design • Expert consultation
– Measures and factors of success – Sources of evidence/data layers – Detailed model structure
• Tool development– Components (see next slide)– User feedback and input
Fully implementedPartially implementedNot implemented (yet)
These should have been further along. Otherwise, we are reasonably on track.
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Summary Status of Tool Components
Fully implemented
Partially implemented
Not implemented (yet)
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Implementation factors in the project’s control
Color (hue): estimated likelihood of successIntensity (value): degree of confidence
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Selecting items on the “checklist” changes likelihood of success
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Conclusions and Ways Forward• Potential scientific outputs
– Demonstrating that social and institutional variables can be meaningfully included in a targeting tool
– Conceptual framework of evidence factors of success indicator of success as a way of framing the targeting problem
– Novel elicitation techniques• Potential practical outputs
– Better‐informed decisions of where in a basin to direct resources– Clarity on data needs for improved decision‐making– An open‐source tool with generically useful source code for spatial
Bayesian models• Next steps during this project
– Build Bayesian models using expert elicitation– Improve on tool interface through consultation– Continue developing data base– Validation with PGIS and case studies
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
What Would We Like to Do?• We are aiming at a tool that could have a life of its own after this project. Some possibilities to help make this happen:– Release the code in an open‐source repository (GitHub, SourceForge)
– Seek funding for further data collection, elaboration, dissemination, and hosting
– Identify a potential long‐term home for the web‐based tool and code
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out
Innovation and learning
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Project TeamSEIINERASARIKNUSTUniv Ouaga
Researchers
CP researchersVBDC researchersWider researcher community
V5 Project
Regional Government
CAADP (NEPAD)VBA..
Communities
NGOs(DVT agents)
National/Provincial
GovernmentAgric Dept.Extension servicesPlanning
Project sphere of influence Project sphere of concern
Boundary PartnersBeneficiaries
Other stakeholders
Project Team
Unions/ Associations
ACTIONSVision, mission, inputs, activities,
outputs
IMPACTSchanges in conditions, well‐being
OUTCOMES changes in knowledge,
attitudes, skills, actions)
NGOnetworks
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Partner engagements in 1st project year (2011):
Mostly national level researchers and various gvt
55%
12%
27%
3% 3%GVT national
Devt agents/implementors (local Gvt, Ngos)farmers
other local stakeholders / private formal‐informalNARS
regional research
intl research
regional policy
international policyBurkina FasoGhana
14%
9%3%3%
71%
GVT national
Devt agents/implementors (local Gvt, Ngos)farmers
other local stakeholders / private formal‐informalprivate parastatsal
NARS
regional research
intl research
regional policy
international policy
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
FOR THE V1
We have likely missed important stakeholders in consultations (private sector actors), and we have not yet tried to correct for these potential limitations, and we recognise the challenges
‘Adaptive research’ can be rewarding, but also time-consuming and we underestimated the time required to fully engage in this as team lead and as team partners
What have we learned about process?
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out
NEXT STEPS AND PRIORITIES
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
What V1 will do
FIRST PRIORITY:
• Learning events in Ghana and Burkina Faso (Aug-Sep 2012??)• Revise , and update and improve tool• Learning events In Ghana and Burkina Faso (Feb-Mar 2012?)
• NEXT PRIORITY• Synthesise PGIS across cases and sites : writeshop?• Complement with AWMi Rainfed case in BF?• Carry out ex-post domain analysis for VBDC projects• Finalise review on extent of AWMi in adoption over time• Model potential hydrological impacts at basin scale• Contribute to VBDC cross-project on story lines and scenario• Develop documentations and outreach products
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
What we would like to do :
‘Best practise of AWMi’ needs to be verified more: what does it mean ? Who is doing it ? Costs and impacts?
Develop a framework for evidence factors of success indicator of success
Meaningful spatial information layers of social and institutional factors: review being done for Limpopo L1 also to benefit V1(Improve the tool accordingly
Find a permanent ‘home’ for tool and associated data
Compare findings of tool application across L1 and V1
Test tool fro v2, V3, V4 AWMi
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
THANK YOU!
MERCI!
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