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COVID-19 FRESH PRODUCE UPDATE APRIL
Data to 19/04/2020
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ANALYSIS PARAMETERS Time Period
Data to 19/04/2020
Data Source
Nielsen Homescan™
Market
Total AUS, Major Supermarkets (Coles, Woolworths and Aldi), Other Supermarkets
(Costco, Asian Grocers, IGA & other Independent Supermarkets), Non Supermarkets
(Greengrocers and Markets)
Measures
Value ($), Volume (KG)
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What is Homescan?
Nielsen Homescan® is a continuous panel of 10,000 households who record all take-home packed and fresh grocery from all retail outlets. The sample is
demographically and geographically representative of the Australian household population.
Each household is equipped with either a small handheld terminal or an app on their mobile phone through which details of all purchasing are entered - product,
quantity, price and outlet. This information, along with the date of purchase, is linked with demographic details of the household and the household purchasing
history. Data are projected to represent take-home purchases of the Australian household population.
Estimates produced from Nielsen Homescan® are subject to sampling variation which means that every number reported has a standard error associated with it.
For example at a Total National level, a 40% share of trade number, will be subject to a 1% standard error at a 95% confidence interval. This implies there is a
95% chance that the true value of the estimate lies between 39 to 41%.
Use of this Report
This report is an output of MT17017 Vegetable Cluster Consumer Insights Program & MT17015 Consumer Behavioural and Retail Data for Fresh Produce and
intended for use by Hort Innovation, Australian fruit & vegetable industries, and other stakeholders in the context of understanding and diagnosing market
performance and shopper behaviour. Any reproduction of the content of the online dashboard or reports and any part thereof requires prior written permission
from Hort Innovation and/or Nielsen. Users/recipients of the dashboard and reports are asked to ensure that report data is not presented in a false or misleading
manner; that the Nielsen name is not used to imply that Nielsen is the source of any claims by Hort innovation or the recipient; that Nielsen copyright is noted
over Nielsen proprietary information; and that the reports (or the data contained therein) are not used in a manner that is detrimental or which is comparable with
the retail purchase measurement services provided by Nielsen, or in exchange for compensation of any kind.
Disclaimer
Horticulture Innovation Australia Limited (Hort Innovation) and The Nielsen Company (Australia) Limited (Nielsen) make no representations and expressly disclaim
all warranties (to the extent permitted by law) about the accuracy, completeness, or currency of information in this dashboard and reports. Reliance on any
information provided by Hort Innovation or Nielsen is at your own risk. You are required to make your own independent decisions prior to acting on the information
having regard for your own judgement and the advice of professional advisors as appropriate. To the full extent permitted by law, neither Nielsen nor Hort
Innovation will be liable, in contract, tort (including negligence) or otherwise, for any loss, expense or damage of any kind arising from your use or reliance on the
information contained in this dashboard and/or the reports.
Funding Statement
This project has been funded by Hort Innovation, using the MT17017 Vegetable Cluster Consumer Insights Program & the MT17015 Consumer Behavioural and
Retail Data for Fresh Produce research and development levies, and contributions from the Australian government. Hort Innovation is the grower-owned, not-for-
profit research and development corporation for Australian horticulture.
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SUMMARY • In the last 4 weeks to 19/04/2020, total grocery sales softened from last month’s peak
although were still 14.9% higher than the same time year ago. Bigger baskets driving
growth
• Produce volume growth was relatively flat; the net result of a 9.4% increase in
vegetables and a -7.8% decrease in fruit volume sales
• Average price of fruit & veg increased this month - reduced promotions from retailers
& shopping more at greengrocers/markets. Frequency of produce buying has also
softened from last month’s peak in line with total grocery trends.
• Biggest contributor to vegetable growth remained vegetables that have longer storage
life
• Fruit volume declines driven by melon, grapes and stonefruit in the last 4 weeks
• Despite online produce sales softening in prior month, in the past 4 weeks online fruit
dollar sales increased 26.7%
• Major supermarkets lost dollar share in produce to greengrocers and markets & other
supermarkets possibly due to #stay at home / shop local
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22APR2018
20MAY2018
17JUN2018
15JUL2018
12AUG2018
09SEP2018
07OCT2018
04NOV2018
02DEC2018
30DEC2018
27JAN2019
24FEB2019
24MAR2019
21APR2019
19MAY2019
16JUN2019
14JUL2019
11AUG2019
08SEP2019
06OCT2019
03NOV2019
01DEC2019
29DEC2019
26JAN2020
23FEB2020
22MAR2020
19APR2020
TOTAL GROCERY DOLLAR SALES 4 WEEKLY TO 19/04/2020
IN THE LAST MONTH AUSTRALIAN GROCERY SALES
SOFTENED
Source: Nielsen Homescan
April sales were still higher than same time year ago (+14.9%) but peak was March
4 weeks to 26/01/2020
4 weeks to 23/02/2020
4 weeks to 22/03/2020
4 weeks to 19/04/2020
Average
Frequency 13.4 13.3 15.7 13.9
Average Spend
Per Shopping Trip $42.93 $43.69 $46.99 $46.46
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IN THE 4 WEEKS TO 19 APRIL, PRODUCE VOLUME GROWTH WAS
RELATIVELY FLAT
Source: Nielsen Homescan
Average price per kg crept up again
-0.3 -1.8
0.3 0.5 1.6 2.0
-0.7
0.3
-0.5
0.7
-6.1
-3.7
4.1
1.3
6.2
8.2
4.7 3.9
1.5 1.4
3.2 2.0
5.1
8.2 9.4
5.5 4.9
13.1
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
21 APR2019
19 MAY2019
16 JUN2019
14 JUL2019
11 AUG2019
08 SEP2019
06 OCT2019
03 NOV2019
01 DEC2019
29 DEC2019
26 JAN2020
23 FEB2020
22 MAR2020
19 APR2020
TOTAL PRODUCE
Volume Sales % Chg vs Year Ago Average Price Per Vol % Chg vs Year Ago
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VEGETABLES REMAIN DRIVERS OF PRODUCE GROWTH, AVERAGE PRICE PER KG HAS
INCREASED ACROSS FRUIT & VEG - REDUCED PROMOTIONS FROM RETAILERS &
SHOPPING MORE AT GREENGROCERS/MARKETS
Source: Nielsen Homescan
0.5
-1.5
0.2 1.4 1.1 1.5
-2.3 -4.2 -3.7 -4.2
-13.6 -6.2 -6.0 -7.8
3.4 6.6 5.6 2.4
-1.0
4.7 5.0 3.7 7.1
13.2 16.1
5.3 9.4
22.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
21 APR2019
19 MAY2019
16 JUN2019
14 JUL2019
11 AUG2019
08 SEP2019
06 OCT2019
03 NOV2019
01 DEC2019
29 DEC2019
26 JAN2020
23 FEB2020
22 MAR2020
19 APR2020
FRUIT
Volume Sales % Chg vs Year Ago Average Price Per Vol % Chg vs Year Ago
-1.4 -2.1
0.1
-0.2
1.8 2.7
1.0
4.8 3.3
5.9
2.0
-0.9
14.0
9.4
8.9 10.1
4.5 5.6
3.7
-0.8
2.1 1.3
4.1 4.1 3.8
6.1
-0.6
7.7
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
21 APR2019
19 MAY2019
16 JUN2019
14 JUL 2019 11 AUG2019
08 SEP2019
06 OCT2019
03 NOV2019
01 DEC2019
29 DEC2019
26 JAN2020
23 FEB2020
22 MAR2020
19 APR2020
VEGETABLES
Volume Sales % Chg vs Year Ago Average Price Per Vol % Chg vs Year Ago
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BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO VEG GROWTH REMAINED
VEGETABLES THAT HAVE LONGER STORAGE LIFE
Source: Nielsen Homescan
19.4% 17.2%
13.8% 12.7%
6.2% 6.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.0% 3.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7%
% TOP 20 CONTRIBUTION TO VEGETABLE VOLUME GROWTH 4 WEEKS TO 19/04/2020 VS YEAR AGO
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CITRUS NOW IN SEASON - BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO FRUIT
VOLUME DECLINE WERE MELONS, GRAPES & STONEFRUIT
Source: Nielsen Homescan
10.1%
5.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.3% 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
0.0% -0.4% -0.6% -1.0%
-5.0% -7.1%
-19.1%
-23.7%
-85.6%
% CONTRIBUTION TO FRUIT VOLUME GROWTH 4 WEEKS TO 19/04/2020 vs YEAR AGO
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VEGETABLES ARE STILL DRIVEN BY PURCHASE VOLUME PER OCCASION, FREQUENCY
HAS RETURNED TO PRE MARCH PEAK LEVELS.
FRUIT HAS LOST BUYING HOUSEHOLDS, FREQUENCY AND AVG WEIGHT PER BUYING
OCCASION IN THE PAST 4 WEEKS
Source: Nielsen Homesan
FRUIT 4 weeks to
26/01/2020 4 weeks to
23/02/2020 4 weeks to
22/03/2020 4 weeks to
19/04/2020
% Buying Households 93.5 93.5 92.3 91.3
Average Buying Occasions 5.2 5.3 5.4 4.9
Average Weight Purchased Per Buying Occasion
1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6
Average Amount Spent Per Buying Occasion
$8.70 $8.24 $7.83 $7.89
VEGETABLE
% Buying Households 96.8 96.4 96.3 96.3
Average Buying Occasions 5.6 5.6 6.0 5.6
Average Weight Purchased Per Buying Occasion
1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8
Average Amount Spent Per Buying Occasion
$8.40 $8.72 $8.88 $9.65
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MAJOR SUPERMARKETS LOST DOLLAR SHARE IN PRODUCE
TO GREENGROCERS & MARKETS & OTHER SUPERMARKETS
Source: Nielsen Homescan | Major Supermarkets are Coles, Woolworths & ALDI; Other Supermarkets are IGA, Costco, Asian Grocers & all other independent full service
supermarkets
Could this be the result of # stay at home/ shop local?
TOTAL
PRODUCE
Dollar
Share
Share of
Trade 52
weeks to
19/04/2020
Share of Trade
4 weeks to
22/03/2020
Share of Trade
4 weeks to
19/04/2020
Major
Supermarkets 74.5% 74.9% 70.3%
Other
Supermarkets 10.8% 10.8% 13.6%
Greengrocers
& Markets 14.7% 14.3% 16.1%
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IN THE PRIOR 4 WEEKS WE SAW ONLINE SALES DROPPING OFF AS
SUPPLY CHAIN STRUGGLED TO MEET DEMAND HOWEVER IN THE
LAST 4 WEEKS ONLINE FRUIT SALES HAVE PICKED UP
Source: Nielsen Homescan | % Growth is calculated vs same time period Year Ago
7.8% 8.9%
14.6%
21.8%
9.5%
12.8% 11.6%
13.1%
17.9%
20.9%
10.5%
5.5% 3.7%
2.5%
12.6%
25.9%
8.3%
26.7%
13 week $ Growth to19/04/2020
4 Week $ Growth to22/03/2020
4 week $ Growth19/04/2020
13 week $ Growth to19/04/2020
4 Week $ Growth to22/03/2020
4 week $ Growth19/04/2020
Total Aus Total Online
Total Produce Total Veg Total Fruit
TOTAL AUSTRALIA TOTAL ONLINE
This artwork was created using Nielsen data.
Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
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