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016 Global Climate ChangeCh 14
Environment & Ecology
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Central Case: Rising seas may flood the Maldives
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Central Case: Rising seas may flood the Maldives
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Central Case: Rising seas may flood the Maldives
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Our dynamic climate• Climate: an area’s long-term atmospheric conditions
- Temperature, moisture content, wind, precipitation, etc.
- Influences everything around us
• Weather: conditions at localized sites over hours or days
• Global climate change: describes trends and variations in Earth’s climate
- Temperature, precipitation, storm frequency
• Global warming: an increase in Earth’s average temperature
- Earth’s climate has varied naturally through time.
- The rapid climatic changes taking place now are due to human activity: fossil fuels, combustion, and deforestation.
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What changes climate?
• Changes in:
- Sun’s output
- Earth’s orbit
- Drifting continents
- Volcanic eruptions
- Greenhouse gases
Global Warming
The E-M Spectrum
The Sun’s Energy Warms the Earth
Fate of Solar Radiation Fate of Solar Radiation Reaching the EarthReaching the Earth
reflectionreflectionClouds (20%)Clouds (20%)
snow and ice + the earth’s surface (20%)snow and ice + the earth’s surface (20%)
atmospheric dust (6%)atmospheric dust (6%)
reflectionreflectionClouds (20%)Clouds (20%)
snow and ice + the earth’s surface (20%)snow and ice + the earth’s surface (20%)
atmospheric dust (6%)atmospheric dust (6%)
Fate of Solar Radiation Fate of Solar Radiation Reaching the EarthReaching the Earth
absorptionabsorptionOceans + Land (51%)Oceans + Land (51%)
Atmosphere (16%)Atmosphere (16%)
Clouds (3%)Clouds (3%)
Plant photosynthesis (<1%)Plant photosynthesis (<1%)
absorptionabsorptionOceans + Land (51%)Oceans + Land (51%)
Atmosphere (16%)Atmosphere (16%)
Clouds (3%)Clouds (3%)
Plant photosynthesis (<1%)Plant photosynthesis (<1%)
Fate of Solar Radiation Fate of Solar Radiation Reaching the EarthReaching the Earth
Radiated to space from clouds and atmosphere (64%)Radiated to space from clouds and atmosphere (64%)
Radiated directly to space from Earth (6%)Radiated directly to space from Earth (6%)
Radiated to space from clouds and atmosphere (64%)Radiated to space from clouds and atmosphere (64%)
Radiated directly to space from Earth (6%)Radiated directly to space from Earth (6%)
RadiationRadiation
The Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse GasesCarbon Dioxide
MethaneNitrous OxideWater Vapor
Ozone
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Thousands of Years Before Present
Tem
per
atu
re C
han
ge
(oF
)
Atm
osp
her
ic C
O2
(pp
m)
Year
Temperature
Carbon Dioxide
Tem
per
atu
re C
han
ge
(oF
)
Atm
osp
her
ic C
O2
(pp
m)
Atmospheric CO2 & Surface Temperature TrendsAtmospheric CO2 & Surface Temperature Trends
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July 28, 2013: 396.77 ppm
Sea level rise
Increased plant primary productivity
Shifts in the distribution of plants and animals
Water contamination and outbreaks of water-borne diseases
Increased storm severity
Potential melting or enlargement of polar ice caps
Changes to patterns of rainfall
More severe droughts or increased precipitation
changes to ocean circulation patterns
Predicted changes with increased greenhouse warming
Ice Age 18,000 years ago
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Sea Level Changes due to Ice Ages and Ice Cap Melting
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Year
Ch
ang
es in
Mea
n S
ea L
evel
Mean Sea Level RiseMean Sea Level Rise
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Summer Arctic Sea Ice Decline Comparison between 1979 & 2005Summer Arctic Sea Ice Decline Comparison between 1979 & 2005
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Early Fall Arctic Sea Ice ExtentEarly Fall Arctic Sea Ice ExtentS
ea Ic
e E
xten
t (m
illio
n k
m2 )
Year
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Greenland Seasonal Surface Melting
Surface melting
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Permafrost
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Permafrost
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Permafrost melting
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Permafrost melting
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Permafrost melting
Drunken forest
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North Atlantic Tropical Storms10-year running average
North Atlantic Tropical Storms10-year running average
Nam
ed T
rop
ical
Sto
rms
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Larsen B Ice Shelf
• 220 m thick
• Lost 5700 km2 (2x Rhode Island)
• Reduction of 40%
1 Meter Sea Level Rise Waikiki1 Meter Sea Level Rise Waikiki
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/HMRG/FloodingOahu/index.phphttp://www.soest.hawaii.edu/coasts/sealevel/waikiki.html
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Sea Level Rise• Destroys coastal habitat (e.g. salt marshes,
mangroves)• Destroys human property• Increases pollution• Decreases freshwater supply
Venice, 2008
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Effect on Marine Life• Phytoplankton bloom due to light and
temperature cues• Changes will impact food web• Hypoxia may result
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Effect on Fisheries
• Migrations are in response to temperature• May impact fisheries
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Effect on Corals• Coral bleaching • Leads to loss of habitat and food for reef-
dependent species
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CurrentsOceanic conveyor belt may change ocean currents • Currents carry plankton• Bring food and oxygen• Distribute eggs and larvae• Remove wastes and pollutants
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Salinity• Animals have a narrow range of tolerance• Glacial melting inputs lots of freshwater
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Projected changes in precipitation
• High latitudes = increased precipitation• Low and middle latitudes = decreased
precipitation will worsen water shortages in developing countries
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Acidity• CO2 makes water acidic• Corals and other calcium
carbonate species can’t make skeleton
• Impact on plankton development impacts food web
• Coral calcification rate reduced 15-20%
• Skeletal density decreased, branches thinner
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Temperature• Higher temperature results in less O2
- Results in hypoxia• Ice melting leaves no resting/hunting areas for
polar bears• Antarctic Krill impacts food web
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Invasive Species• Algae smothers coral• Invasive species out-compete natives
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Weather Events
More severe weather patterns• El Niño• Hurricanes • Mudslides• Forest Fires• Drought
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Sea Surface Temperature
Aug 3, 2013 http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
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Origin and paths of tropical cyclones
• Tropical cyclones are intense low pressure storms created by:
– Warm water
– Moist air
– Coriolis effect
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
• El Niño = warm surface current in equatorial eastern Pacific that occurs periodically around Christmastime
• Southern Oscillation = change in atmospheric pressure over Pacific Ocean accompanying El Niño
• ENSO describes a combined oceanic-atmospheric disturbance
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El Niño
• Oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean
• Occurs during December• 2 to 7 year cycle
Sea Surface Temperature
Atmospheric Winds
Upwelling
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Normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean
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El Niño conditions (ENSO warm phase)
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La Niña conditions (ENSO cool phase; opposite of El Niño)
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El NiñoNon El Niño
1997
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Non El Niño
El Niño
thermocline
upwelling
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El Niño events over the last 62 years
82-83
65-6672-73
57-5886-87 91-92
94-95
97-98
02-0309-10
Red - Strong El NinoBlue- Strong La NinaBlack – moderate (either)
50-5155-56
64-65
70-71
73-74
75-7688-89
98-9999-00
07-08 10-11
11-12
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1969 1951 1957 1950 1955 19731976 1963 1965 1954 1970 19751977 1968 1972 1956 1998 19882004 1986 1982 1962 2007 19992006 1987 1997 1964 2010
1991 19671994 19712002 19742009 1984
19952000
El Niño La Niña
Weak Mod Strong Weak Mod Strong
2011
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Effects of severe El Niños
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Why was it created?
- Created in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Program
- Established to provide policy-makers with an objective source of information about climate change
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
The IPCC 2013 report concluded that it is more than 95% likely that most global warming is due to humans.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/12/09/syria-s-jihadists-linked-to-organized-crime.html
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Shall we pursue mitigation or adaptation?• Mitigation: pursue actions that reduce
greenhouse gas emissions to lessen severity of future climate change
- Renewable energy, efficiency, farm practices to protect soil integrity, preventing deforestation
• Adaptation: accept climate change is happening and pursue strategies to minimize its impacts
- Uses technology and engineering, adjusting farming to cope with droughts, etc.
- Criticized as sidestepping
• Both are necessary
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Transportation
• Ways to help:
- Make vehicles more fuel-efficient, hybrid cars
- Drive less
- Public transportation is the most effective way to conserve energy, reduce pollution.
- Live closer to your workplace, so you can bike or walk.
- Design cities and workplaces to be more friendly to pedestrian and bicycle traffic.
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Conventional cars are inefficient
The typical automobile is highly inefficient.
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The FCCC• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(FCCC): outlines a plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000 through a voluntary, nation-by-nation approach
- By the late 1990s, it was clear that the voluntary approach would not succeed.
- Most developed nations did not voluntarily cut emissions.
• The Kyoto Protocol mandates that, between 2008-2012, signatory nations must reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases to levels below those of 1990.
- This treaty took effect in 2005, after Russia became the 127th nation to ratify it.
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The Kyoto Protocol seeks to limit emissions
• The United States will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
- It requires industrialized nations to reduce emissions, but not rapidly industrializing nations (China and India).
China India
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Market mechanisms address climate change• Permit trading programs
- Harness the economic efficiency of the free market to achieve policy goals while allowing businesses flexibility
- Polluters choose how to best reduce their emissions
• A cap and trade emissions trading program
- Each state decides who needs to participate.
- Each sets a cap on allowable carbon emissions.
- Each emissions source gets one permit.
- The source can buy or sell permits.
- Any source emitting more than its permitted amount will face penalties.
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Carbon offsets are in vogue• Emissions trading programs allow participants to buy
carbon offsets.• Carbon offset: a voluntary payment to enable
another entity to reduce emissions that one is unable to reduce oneself
Hawaii California 1 flight = 2,268 CO2
6 trees/passenger = 1 round trip flight
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You can reduce your own footprint• The most influential factor may be the collective
decisions of millions of people.
• Our carbon footprint expresses the amount of carbon we are responsible for emitting.
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1.3bt980m
4m28t
890m
How much CO2 is created by _____/year
1.4bt
1.5m
15t
2000t
7t
30t
1.9bt610m
373t
4.3bt
100t682m
8.3bt
810m
Iceland
Germany Brazil
Ave. world citizen
Ave. UK citizen
Ave. N.A. citizen
Malawi
Rearing a child (carbon high) Russia
Ave. Australian
U.S.U.K.
China.
Rearing a child.
France
IndiaCanada
Australia
Rearing a child (carbon consciously)
http://calculator.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx
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1.Invest in clean energy 2.Energy efficient cars 3.Create green jobs 4.Become carbon neutral 5.Become more energy efficient 6.Protect forests 7.Tax global warming pollution8.Coal plants use new technology 9.Cap CO2 emissions10. make low polluting biofuels more available
Top 10 solutions to climate change
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Conclusion
• Many factors influence Earth’s climate.
- Human activities play a major role.
• Climate change is well underway.
- Further emissions will cause severe impacts.
• More and more scientists and policymakers are urging immediate action.
- Reducing emissions, and mitigating and adapting to a changing climate, represents the foremost challenge for our society.
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Activity: What is your Super Power?
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Amazing CO2 Absorber
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QUESTION: Review“Global warming” is defined as:
a) Atmospheric conditions at localized sites
b) Atmospheric conditions over hours or days
c) An area’s long-term atmospheric conditions
d) An increase in Earth’s average temperature
e) Trends and variations in Earth’s precipitation
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QUESTION: Review
“Global warming potential,” when referring to greenhouse gases, means:
a) The ability of a molecule to contribute to global warming
b) The ability of a molecule to prevent global warming
c) Carbon dioxide is the most potent greenhouse gas
d) Energy travels back to the Earth, after being emitted
e) That all other molecules are measured against CFCs
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QUESTION: Review
Which of the following are major contributors of global warming?
a) Burning fossil fuels and recyclingb) Deforestation and nuclear
energyc) Burning fossil fuels and
deforestationd) Fossil fuels and nuclear energye) Fossil fuels and planting forests
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QUESTION: Review
Which of the following greenhouse gases is not the most potent, but is extremely abundant?
a) Methaneb) Water vaporc) Carbon dioxided) Nitrous oxidee) Aerosols
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QUESTION: Review
What would happen if the NADW (North American Deep Water) conveyor belt were disrupted?
a) Europe would get warmer.b) Greenland would get warmer.c) The U.S. would get warmer.d) Europe would get cooler.e) Greenland would get cooler.
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QUESTION: Review
A “proxy indicator” for global warming is:a) Indirect evidence of global warmingb) Indirect evidence that substitutes for
direct evidence of global warmingc) Direct evidence of global warmingd) Direct evidence that substitutes for
indirect evidence of global warminge) The argument global warming critics
use to say climate change is not occurring
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QUESTION: Review
The 2013 Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made it clear that:
a) Climate is changingb) Humans are the causec) This change is already exerting impactsd) Observed trends in temperature are well
documentede) All of the above are included in this report.
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QUESTION: ReviewOne result of climate change is that sea surfaces will rise, which means that:
a) More ice will be formed in the Arcticb) Coral reefs will expand their range
throughout the worldc) Storms will be stronger and last
longerd) The number of storms will increase,
but not their strengthe) Nothing will happen; climate change
is still debatable
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QUESTION: Review
What happens as ice melts in polar regions?
a) More heat is reflected into spaceb) Glaciers re-freeze at nightc) Exposed soils absorb heat and
make melting worsed) Polar bears learn to like the sune) Eskimos can now sell their
property at a profit
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QUESTION: Interpreting Graphs and Data
According to this model, which area will have increased floods and potential crop losses?
c) North Africa
d) Europe
e)Greenland
a) The U.S.
b) The tip of South America
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QUESTION: Interpreting Graphs and Data
Which statement is supported by this figure?
a) CO2 emissions have increased drastically.
b) CO2 emissions have stabilized recently.
c) CO2 emissions fluctuate only in Hawaii.
d) CO2 emissions average 320 ppm.
e) CO2 emissions don’t generally fluctuate.
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