Climate Action Tracker side event

Pledges vs. implemented action -where are we really heading?

Warsaw, 16 November 2013

Outline

▶ Global overview - Nadine Braun, Ecofys

▶ Country examples

� EU, Australia, Japan - Marion Vieweg, Climate Analytics

� US, China - Hanna Fekete, Ecofys

▶ Implications - Bill Hare, Climate Analytics

Climate Action Tracker

• Pledges:

– Up-to-date assessment of national emission reduction proposals

– What is the level of ambition?

• Current emission trends:

– Assessment of implemented climate policies

– Are current activities sufficient to meet the pledge?

www.climateactiontracker.org

> Temperature: Translation into

global emissions pathways and

impact on temperature

Assessment: pledges and policies not yet sufficient

Inadequate

Medium

Sufficient

Role model

Rating of pledge

Likelihood of achieving pledge with implemented policies

Likely

Unlikely

? Unclear

?

?

Not assessed

?

?

>

>

>

> BAU>Pledge Pledge > BAU

EU: Achieving target with no additional action

• No additional policies required for the EU to achieve their 2020 target

• Emissions trend since 1990 is expected to continue until 2020

• Many policy initiatives that are in progress could further decrease emissions, although a resurgence of coal use could counteract this

Australia: Backtracking on promising progress

• New government about to repeal ambitious legislation put in place in 2011, that would have led to meet the 5% target

• Proposed new climate policy - lacks the resources to meet the target reduction goal and instead could lead to emissions of about 12% above 2000 levels by 2020

Japan: Joining the land of low ambition

• New 2020 target equivalent to no emissions reduction relative to 2011

• New target increases the 2020 UNEP Emissions Gap by 3-4%

• Little additional effort needed to meet new target (64 MtCO2e)

• Change in ambition cannot be fully justified by ‘no nuclear’ scenario

China: close to achieving pledge but still rising emissions

• Pledge level remains unclear in absolute terms and is rated Inadequate

• Close to achieving the pledge, still strong emissions increase

• Strong action in renewable energy and efficient industry

US: Implemented policies insufficient to meet pledge

• Pledge inadequate and not achieved with implemented policies as of September 2012

• Climate Change Action Plan announced June 2013 could get the US there, if fully implemented

• Variety of individual activities at federal and state level but not yet with the required level of ambition and effectiveness

www.climateactiontracker.org

Inadequate

Medium

Sufficient

Role model

Rating of pledge

Likelihood of achieving pledge with implemented policies

Likely

Unlikely

? Unclear

?

?

Not assessed

?

?

>

>

>

> BAU>Pledge Pledge > BAU