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Contested Modelling
Dr Mike Yearworth1, Dr Sarah Cornell2
[1] Reader in Engineering Systems, Faculty of Engineering
University of Bristol, UK [2] Coordinator – Planetary Boundaries Collaboratory, Stockholm
Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden
17th July 2012
! Starting points
• Over-mathematisation of models and reliance on simulation has led to a loss of narrative and representations essentially black-box approaches
• Ownership and control of models is in conflict with processes that might make them debatable with publics
• Need for specialised techniques also limits debate to between experts and narrow falsifiability as a validation technique
• Focus on nomothetic approaches – universal models
17th July 2012 2
! Method
• Can we get better at sustainability interventions given our starting point in expert modelling?
• RQ: Do we (the authors) understand the relationship between expert modelling and its publics?
• SRQ: Do we understand each other? • Data sources – project experience (Sympact,
HalSTAR, CONVERGE, IHOPE) • Theoretical lens – ontology, praxis and reflexivity
17th July 2012 3
! Ontologies
• Geels§ identifies seven ontologies in analysing social-technical transitions towards sustainability • Rational choice, evolutionary theory, structuralism,
functionalism, interpretivism, conflict and power structure, relationism
• cf Burrel & Morgan (Sociological Paradigms and Organisational Analysis: Elements of the Sociology of Corporate Life)
• Questions: Is there an underpinning project ontology? Is there diversity? Made explicit?
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§Geels, F. W. (2010) Ontologies, socio-technical transitions (to sustainability), and the multi-level perspective. Research Policy, 39(4), pp. 495-510.
! Ontologies
Ontology Causal Agent Causal Mechanism Rational Choice Self interested individuals Decentralised choice Co-Evolution Populations Search, selection Structuralism Belief systems ‘Deep structures’ Interpretivism Individuals, interpretations Shared meaning, sense-
making, debate Functionalism Elements of a social system Enacting roles, feedback Conflict and Power Groups with conflicting
interests Struggle between groups
Relationism Networks Interaction
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Adapted from Geels, F. W. (2010) Ontologies, socio-technical transitions (to sustainability), and the multi-level perspective. Research Policy, 39(4), pp. 495-510.
! Praxis & Purpose of Modelling
• Way in which theoretical knowledge of the expert modeller(s) is enacted through intervention
• Modelling purpose is bound to the question of enactment of intervention
• Questions: Is there a stated purpose to modelling? Best mode of expressing the models? Prediction (action outside scope) or guide to action? If action, then is action research explicit?
17th July 2012 6
! Reflexivity
• Translating ideas of reflexivity into context of environmental governance
• Sensitivity to inputs from diverse perspectives • Recognising alternative ways of seeing issues of
concerns • Questions: How does modelling support
reflexivity? Support stakeholder engagement? Longer term engagement?
17th July 2012 7
! Projects
• Sympact • Generate predictions/scenarios around GHG emissions in
the digital media industry to inform strategy. LCA and SD models.
• Functionalism • Future intent to support wider engagement
• HalSTAR • Grounded, holistic approach to assessing sustainability
options of civil engineering projects • Functionalism, initially, moving towards interpretivism • Latter leads to better reflection on original modelling task
17th July 2012 8
! Projects
• CONVERGE • Global sustainability, conceptualising equity within the Earth’s
natural biophysical limits • Functionalism and structuralism with some interpretivist, conflict/
power structures • Models intended to guide action, explicit action research • Long term relationships with communities. And not…
• IHOPE • Linking social and environmental sciences to understand
human-environment interactions over multiple timescales • Functionalism, but some debate • Recognises need to link to wide social and environmental
sciences communities to improve current Earth systems models
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17th July 2012 10
Sympact
HalSTAR
CONVERGE
IHOPE Sust
aina
bilit
y A
ctio
n:
Eng
agem
ent o
f mod
el u
sers
in p
roce
ss fo
r act
ion
Knowledge Building: Engagement of stakeholders in model construction
Non
e
Ind
irect
Dire
ct
None Indirect Direct
! Validation – after Barlas§ • White box vs. black box modelling
• black box quality of the predictions: do they match observational data? [data-driven, “correlational”, possible abductive fallacies]
• white box structure of the model: does the model explain how observed behaviour is obtained? [theory-like, “causal descriptive”]
• How do we validate explanations (structural validity) i.e. get “right behaviour for the right reason”? • Functionalist worldview objective representation of real world
model is either correct or incorrect. Possibly true of other ontologies
• Praxis view one possible representation continuum of usefulness
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§Barlas, Y. (1996) Formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics. !System Dynamics Review, 12(3), pp. 183-210.
! Towards wider stakeholder engagement?
this is not about open data, or open access to publications (both are necessary but not sufficient), and not really open source either…
• Possible approaches • Argumentation (Toulmin, De Liddo, 2010) • Participatory Action Learning (Perkons and Brown,
2010) • Issue Based Information Systems (IBIS) (Buckingham
Shum, 2006, Conklin, 2003) • Social Learning (Senge, 2005)
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! Discussion Points • If ultimately praxis is about behaviour change then what is
more important: accuracy or method of coupling with change processes?
• Difficult for non-scientific public to make distinctions between ignorance, uncertainty and contingent findings expressed as testable hypotheses
• Predominately functionalist worldview of expert modellers is mismatched to intervention generally – who has the view of the “real” world?
• Ironically, in the area of sustainability this disconnect is ultimately untenable (obviously?)
• Paradoxically, over-attention to being scientific closes avenues for scientifically informed but systemic solutions
17th July 2012 13
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