Conservation management for an uncertain future
Mike Morecroft
Outline
• Science, policy and practise• Conservation and climate change• Forecasting and systems approaches
Scientist Policy Maker
Science and ‘policy’?
advice
Questions£ $ €
Scientist Scienceadvisor
PracticalConservationist Senior manager
Decisionmaker
Policyadvisor
Land manager
Simplified ‘advice chain’
Action!
Simplified ‘advice web’
Different niches in the advice web
Different requirements e.g.• Science advisor – detailed understanding• Politician – implications for other policy areas• Land manager – practical guidance
Complementary expertise• Societal context critical• Learning from experience
Scientist Scienceadvisor
PracticalConservationist Senior manager
Decisionmaker
Policyadvisor
Land manager
Aspirational ‘advice web’
Action!
Conservation and climate change(and other environmental changes)
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intensification
fragmentationhabitat loss (and gain)
agriculture
air pollution
Pressures on ecosystems
climate change
development
invasive species
etc.
time
The past is not a reliable guide to the future→ we need ‘forecasting’
Direct effects of climate change• Shifting distributions• Changing phenology• Disrupted interactions between species• Extreme event effects (e.g. drought / fire)• Rising sea level
• CO2 effects: Fertilisation, water use efficiency, acidification
Indirect effects of climate change• Changing agricultural practise / crops• Changing catchment management
(water supply / flood management)• Energy crops• Carbon management• Changing coastal management• Renewable energy (e.g. hydro)
Etc!
Oblong woodsia Stag beetle
Changes in potential distribution (MONARCH programme 2080’s high scenario)
LossGainContinue
Average northward shift of 16 taxa over past 30 years
Hickling et al 2006
impacts
adaptation
modellingmonitoring
mitigation
Adaptation Principles
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EBS Adaptation Principles (Smithers et al, 2009)
• Take practical action now • Maintain and increase ecological resilience• Accommodate change• Integrate action across partners and sectors• Develop knowledge and plan strategically
Maintain and increase ecological resilience• Conserve range and ecological variability of habitats / species• Maintain existing ecological networks• Create buffer zones around high quality habitats• Take prompt action to control spread of invasive species
Accommodate change• Understand change is inevitable• Make space for the natural development of rivers and coasts• Establish ecological networks• Aid gene flow• Consider the role of species translocation / ex-situ conservation• Develop the capacity of institutions• Respond to changing conservation priorities
Resilience or accommodation?
enable persistence -------> accept change
resilience accommodation
Changing approach as the climate changes
1°C > 2°C > 3°C > 4°C
Examples of Climate change adaptation and mitigation in Natural England
• Research and development• Vulnerability assessment• Managed realignment• Habitat heterogeneity guidance• Peatland restoration• Adaptation and mitigation through
Environmental Stewardship
• Investigate and reduce your carbon emissions
• Protect soil and water
• Increase tree cover
• Protect wildlife
Examples of Climate change adaptation and mitigation in Natural England
• Research and development• Vulnerability assessment• Managed realignment• Habitat heterogeneity guidance• Peatland restoration• Adaptation and mitigation through
Environmental Stewardship• Designations (changing species / boundaries)• Habitat networks
Role of forecasting and systems approaches
Do we still need modelling?
• Not always!• Prediction / direction of travel• Explore scenarios• Modelling can help understanding
– Compare sensitivities – Identify dependencies– Test interactions and attribution
• Investigate response options• Provide visualisation• Quantification e.g. carbon fluxes
Climate envelope models
• Available data• Large number of species possible• Good for visualisation
But• Non-climate limitations on distributions• Dispersal limitations• Non-analagous climates• Etc.
Process modelling?
• Population studies of rare species• Carbon storage• Catchment management• Dispersal / network design• Components of DGVMs• Land use planning• Etc.
• Distribution modelling?
Pitfalls for modellers
• Over-emphasising prediction vs. exploring scenarios
• Over-stating accuracy• Detachment from practical problems
climateprojections
ecosystem responses
Uncertainty
X
Plan for uncertainty: risk management
Coping with uncertainty
• No regrets measures
• Adaptive management approach
• Monitoring and research
adapt
monitor
review
Conclusions
• Beware of simplistic view of ‘policy’• Shifting emphasis from impacts to adaptation
and mitigation• Think in terms of understanding as much as
prediction• Embrace uncertainty
Acknowledgements
• Colleagues especially Humphrey Crick, Nick Macgregor, Simon Duffield
• Collaborators and students especially Pam Berry, Mandar Trivedi, James Paterson
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