5/20/2004 1COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
May 2004
David Pollock
The Boeing Company
5/20/2004 2COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
Introduction
• COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast– Updated annually since 1993– Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing
enhancements– 10-year forecast horizon (2004-2013)
• Total demand is lower than the 2003 forecast– 211 satellites vs. 233 satellites in 2003 forecast (9% lower)
• 2004 report offers some new insights into industry trends:– Estimate of “realization” of demand expanded to first three years
of the forecast– Analysis of growth in satellite mass and transponders per
satellite presented– Respondents’ views on factors affecting demand discussed
5/20/2004 3COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
2003 GSO Demand Forecast Team
Alexander Liang (T&IWG chair) Aerospace Corporation
David Pollock (forecast chair) Boeing Rocketdyne
Darren Chambo Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company
I-Shih Chang Aerospace Corporation
Gary Goodwin Sea Launch
Ethan Haase Lockheed Martin / International Launch Services
Lisa Hague Boeing Launch Services
B. Ray Hawkins Aerospace Corporation
Bill Hayes Space Systems / Loral
Joe Hopkins Consultant
Doug Howe Boeing Satellite Systems
Mike Izzo Asia Pacific Space Center
Debra Lepore Kistler Aerospace Corporation
Jennifer Miceli Tecolote Research / USAF/SMC/EV
John Sloan FAA AST
5/20/2004 4COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
Forecast Methodology
• Request 10-year projection of GSO satellites launched from satellite operators, manufacturers, and launch service providers worldwide– Individual demand requirements from operators– Comprehensive market inputs from manufacturers and launch providers– Projections by mass class
• Develop Near-Term (2004-2006) Mission Model– “Bottom-up” forecast of launch opportunities by name– Consensus forecast based on most recent information– Individual inputs from operators used as available– Timing and likelihood of new opportunities agreed upon by panel
• Develop Long-Term (2007-2013) Forecast– Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass categories
• Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites included– Addressable satellites are defined as those open for internationally
competitive launch service procurement– Historical launches occasionally restated if necessary
5/20/2004 5COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
2004 Survey
• Individual and comprehensive GSO inputs for 2004-2013– 26 survey responses received (two less than 2003)– 4 U.S. domestic companies provided comprehensive input
• Survey of Factors Affecting Market Demand– 16 companies also responded to questions on how various
factors affected their plans to procure new satellites– Response categories updated from 2003 questionnaire to
broaden understanding of respondents’ opinions
5/20/2004 6COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
2004 Survey Respondents AirTV (U.S.)+
Alcatel Space
Arianespace (France)
AsiaSat (China/Hong Kong)+
Astrium (France)
Binariang Satellite Systems (Malaysia)+
The Boeing Company* (U.S.)
DirecTV (U.S.)+
Inmarsat (U.K.)+
Intelsat (U.S.)+
JSAT Corporation (Japan)
Kistler* (U.S.)
KT Corporation (South Korea)+
Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co.* (U.S.)
Loral Skynet (U.S.)+
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan)
Mobile Broadcasting Corporation (Japan)+
Mobile Satellite Ventures (U.S.)+
New Skies Satellites (Netherlands)+
Orbital Sciences Corp. (U.S.)
PanAmSat (U.S.)+
Satmex (Mexico)+
Space Communications Corporation (Japan)+
Space Systems/Loral* (U.S.)
Telesat Canada+
Thuraya Telecommunications (U.A.E)+
+ = Provided input on factors affecting demand* = Provided comprehensive input
5/20/2004 7COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Num
ber
of S
atel
lites
/Lau
nche
s
2004 Satellite Demand Forecast
2004 Launch Demand Forecast
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Average 2004 to
2013
Satellite Demand 20 22 16 19 19 22 22 23 24 24 211 21.1
Dual Launch Forecast 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 28 2.8
Launch Demand Forecast
19 19 13 16 16 19 19 20 21 21 183 18.3
2004 Commercial GSO Forecast
5/20/2004 8COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
2003 Forecasted Demand vs. Realization
• Anticipated 2003 GSO demand was 22 satellites
• Expected realization was 13 to 19 satellites
• 14 launched and one accelerated from 2003, therefore
• 15 commercial GSO satellites were launched in 2003
• Of the 8 anticipated but not launched:
– 6 satellites were delayed due to satellite issues
– 1 satellite was delayed due to issues related to both the satellite and the launch vehicle
– 1 satellite was delayed due to regulatory issues (export control)
5/20/2004 9COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
Realization bands are correctly bracketing actual launch experience
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3519
93
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Num
ber
of S
atel
lites
Historical SatelliteDemand Forecast
2004 SatelliteDemand Forecast
Actual SatellitesLaunched= Expected Realization
Historical Long-Term Demand Forecast
Near-Term Manifest
2004 COMSTAC Commercial GSO Demand Forecast and Probable Realization
5/20/2004 10COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Average
High 21 23 23 24 24 25 27
2004 Satellite Demand 20 22 16 19 19 22 22 23 24 24 211 21.1
Low 16 16 18 18 18 18 18
0
5
10
15
20
25
301993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Num
ber
of S
atel
lites
/Lau
nche
s
Satellites
Launches
ForecastNear-Term Manifest
Actual
2004 Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand Forecast
5/20/2004 11COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
Commercial GSO Near-Term Mission Model
2004 2005 2006 Total 20 22 16
3 3 2 Below 2,200 kg (<4,850 lbm) AMC-10 – Atlas IIAS
AMC-11 – Atlas IIAS Galaxy 14 – Ariane 5
Galaxy 15 – Ariane 5 Optus D1 – TBD Telkom 2 – Ariane 5
AMOS 3 – TBD Sirius 4 - TBD
5 6 8 2,200 – 4,200 kg (4,850-9,260 lbm) Superbird 6 – Atlas IIAS
MBSat – Atlas III XTAR EUR – Ariane 5 AMC 15 – Proton Insat 4A – Ariane 5
Spainsat – Ariane 5 Arabsat 4A – Proton Hot Bird 7A – Ariane 5 Insat 4B – Ariane 5 DirecTV 8 - TBD AMC 16 -- Proton
Hot Bird 8 – Ariane 5 StarOne C1 – Ariane 5 JCSat 9 – Ariane 5 Arabsat 4B – Proton Astra 1L – Proton AirTV 1 – TBD JCSat 10 - TBD Optus D2 – TBD
6 7 6 4,200 – 5,400 kg (9,260 – 11,905lbm) Eutelsat W3A - Proton
Estrela do Sul – Sea Launch Apstar V – Sea Launch Worldsat 2 - Proton Amazonas - Proton XM-3 - Sea Launch
WorldSat 3 – Proton Anik F1R – Proton Astra 1KR – Ariane 5 Measat 3 - Proton Wildblue 1 – Ariane 5 Echostar 10 – TBD Thuraya - TBD
Galaxy 16 - TBD Galaxy 17 - TBD Telstar 11R - TBD Koreasat 5 – TBD AMC 14 – Atlas V Telesat (tbd) - TBD
6 6 0 Over 5,400 kg (>11,905 lbm) Anik F2 – Ariane 5
DirecTV 7S – Sea Launch Intelsat 10 – Proton Inmarsat 4F1 – Atlas V Spaceway 1 - Sea Launch Telstar 8 - Sea Launch
NSS 8 - Sea Launch Spaceway 2 - Sea Launch iPSTAR – Ariane 5 Satmex 6 – Ariane 5 Inmarsat 4F2 – Sea Launch DirecTV 9S - TBD
As of April 28, 2004
5/20/2004 12COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
Forecast Trends in Mass Distribution
Forecast demand is lower in all weight classes, but the biggest drop was in the large 5,400kg+ class (from 51 to 35 over 10 years)
Below 2,200kg
2,200 to 4,200kg
4,200 to 5,400kg
Over 5,400kg
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Launch Years
Num
ber
of S
atel
lites
Actual Long-Term Demand ForecastNear-Term Manifest
5/20/2004 13COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
Growth trend in transponders-per-satellite is expected to recover in 2004
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
To
tal
Nu
mb
er
of
C/K
u/K
a T
ran
sp
on
der
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Av
era
ge
Tra
ns
po
nd
ers
per
Sa
telli
te
Total Number of Transponders
Average Transponders per Satellite
GSO C/Ku/Ka Transponders Launched
5/20/2004 14COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
GSO Satellite Mass Launched
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
T
ota
l M
ass
Lau
nch
ed (
kg)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Ave
rag
e M
ass
per
Sat
elli
te (
kg)
Total Mass Launched Average Mass per Satellite
Average satellite mass growth is expected to continue in 2004
5/20/2004 15COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
Historical Demand Forecast Comparison
2004 forecast demand is 9% lower than the 2003 forecast
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2002 Demand Forecast
2003 Demand Forecast
2004 Demand Forecast
5/20/2004 16COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
Demand History and Forecast Summary
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Dual Manifest Launches
Single Manifest Launches
Satellites
Actual Long-Term Demand ForecastNear-Term Manifest
5/20/2004 17COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
Factors Affecting Demand
• Global and regional economic conditions– Improving but with regional differences– New ventures still face extreme scrutiny– Transponder over-capacity has driven pricing down
• New market applications– Direct-to-home applications are driving demand growth– Ka-band satellites are becoming a mainstay
• High-speed terrestrial services– Significant fiber-optic cable bandwidth capacity in market– May lower demand for satellite-based data transfer
• Data compression technology• Regulatory environment• New space hardware
5/20/2004 18COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
Summary of Findings
• 2004 COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast– Average satellite demand 2004-2013 = 21.1 per year– Near-term demand is 20 in 2004, 22 in 2005, and 16 in 2006– Expected realization:
• 12-17 satellites in 2004
• 16-20 satellites in 2005
• 12-14 satellites in 2006
• Average annual demand is down 9% • Transponders-per-satellite and mass-per-satellite
launched continue to grow• Economic conditions and availability of financing
continue to have a negative effect on market demand
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