06 JAN – 10 JAN 2014
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MAJOR EVENTS US gold futures recorded a recovery on Thursday from its worst year in more than
three decades. A steep decline in the yellow metal prices has prompted the bullion
investors to reverse bets. US gold futures for February delivery electronic platform
was seen trading with a gain of $20.3 at $1222.6 per troy ounce as of 09.55 IST on
Thursday. Short holdings in gold rose 1.1% to a three-week high of 76,052 in futures
and options in the week that closed December 24, according to the US Commodity
Futures Trading Commission data. India Gold Futures opened on a positive note and
was seen trading up tracking an upward movement in US gold prices on Thursday.
Gold futures for February delivery on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was seen
trading with a gain of 0.87% at Rs.28665 per 10 grams as of 10.05 IST on Thursday.
A list of US data releases is scheduled for the day and traders may try to gather clues
for their trading from the data released. US Department of Labor is scheduled to
release its weekly data on Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims at 19.00 IST
while US Institute of Supply Management is expected to release its PMI at 20.30 IST
on Thursday.
Crude oil prices saw their biggest drop in nearly 14 months at the NYMEX with oil
prices for most active February expiry closed nearly 3% lower yesterday. A slew of
positive economic numbers from the US were unable to press-in any kind of
optimism into the commodity which was weighed by rise in US Dollar amidst
speculation that the US Fed would continue with its monetary tapering. Additional
pressure seeped-in by the fact that Libya is planning to open one of its key oil fields
over the next two weeks which if happens would nearly double the supply form the
country as compared to current levels. By the end of the trading session on Thursday,
WTI oil was down around $3 per barrel to close at $95.44 a barrel and marking its
biggest single session drop since Nov, 2012. In Libya, oil output still hovers around
250,000 barrels per day (BPD), sharply lower from the near 1.5 BPD during the first
half of 2013 as ports in the eastern part of the country remain shut. Recently, its
National Oil Corp (NOC) said it plans to restart the El Sharara oilfield and hopes to
advance country’s output to near 600,000 BPD after protesters agreed to suspend a
strike that has blocked the field since the end of October.
NYMEX Crude Oil
witnesses biggest
drop in 14
months.
India Copper falls
on profit
booking, weak
cues.
Copper futures for February delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was
seen trading with a loss of 0.62% at Rs.466.80 per kilogram as of 16.25 IST on Friday.
Copper prices in the global market edged lower on Friday amid weak China
manufacturing data and hopes on surplus supply of the base metal. Comex copper for
March delivery on electronic platform was seen trading with a loss of 0.68% at $3.358
per pound as of 16.48 IST on Friday.
China HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing posted at 50.5 in
December, unchanged from the earlier flash reading, and down slightly from 50.8 in
November, according to the data released by the HSBC Markit on Thursday.
Chinese non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 54.6 in December, the
lowest since August and weak from 56 month-on-month basis, according to the data
released by the National Bureau of Statistics and Federation of Logistics & Purchasing
on Friday. Copper tumbled 7.2% in 2013, falling into a bear territory April, on concerns
that global supply would surpass demand and a slowdown in China, world's largest
base metal consumer.
US Gold
rebounds after
its worst year,
MCX Gold opens
up.
E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Jan 06 3:30am
Jan 06 7:30pm Final Services PMI 56.0 56.0
8:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.6 53.9
8:30pm Factory Orders m/m 1.8% -0.9%
Jan 07 4:00am Fed Chairman Nomination Vote
7:00pm Trade Balance -40.2B -40.6B
8:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.3 43.1
Jan 08 6:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 199K 215K
9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories
11:31pm 10-y Bond Auction 2.82/2.6
Jan 09 12:30am FOMC Meeting Minutes
1:30am Consumer Credit m/m 13.6B 18.2B
6:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -20.6%
7:00pm Unemployment Claims 334K 339K
9:00pm Natural Gas Storage
11:31pm 30-y Bond Auction 3.90/2.4
Jan 10 7:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 194K 203K
7:00pm Unemployment Rate 7.0% 7.0
7:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2%
8:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 1.4%
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
28690 28080 27400 29650 30110 30680
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
44500 43500 42400 45850 46700 47600
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD last week showed bullish
movement after taking support from
lower band of channel pattern and
closed around upper band. Now if it
able to maintain above 29150 and if
also traded above the upper band of
channel pattern then 29600 will act as
important resistance. On other hand if
it sustain below 29000 then 28700 will
act as major support level.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 29250 for the targets of 29600-
30000 with stop loss of 28600.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER last week showed upward
movement, and took bounce back from
lower band of falling wedge pattern &
face resistance of its important level i.e.
45850. Now, if bullish trend continues
and sustain above 45900 then it may
find next resistance around 46600. On
lower side 44500 will act as support for
it below which it may drag towards
important support of 42500.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 46000 for
targets of 46600-47200, with stop loss of
44500.
C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
5860 5710 5570 6020 6170 6350
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
462.45 456 447.70 474.50 482 492
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed
sideways movement and unable to
sustain above 473.50 and took support
of lower band of downward channel
pattern. Now, if it is able to sustain
below 472 then bearishness drag it
towards the support level of 456.50.
On other hand if it maintains above
the resistance range of 475-478 then
bulls may become active.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell
on highs for the targets of 5760, with stop
loss of 6110.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil on its daily chart showed
bearish movement, not able to sustain
above 23.6% retracement and gave
breakout of upward channel pattern
on lower side and also closed below
the trendline. Now, if it is able to
sustain below the trendline then next
support level is seen around 5750. On
higher side 6110 will act as important
resistance.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 462, with stop loss of 478 for the
target of 450.
PIVOT TABLE
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