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Collision Avoidance – Updates on Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
2019 P&C Insurance SymposiumICT/AFACT July 12, 2019
David Harkey
IIHS-HLDI Research on driver assistance systemsProvided first evidence of real-world benefits
Most crash avoidance technologies are living up to expectationsEffects on insurance claim frequency
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
forwardcollisionwarning
FCW withautobrake
adaptiveheadlights
lanedeparturewarning
side-viewassist
(blind spot)
property damage liability bodily injury liability statistically significantcollisionMore
claims
Fewer
claims
Most crash avoidance technologies are living up to expectationsEffects on relevant police-reported crash types
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
forward collision warning low-speed autobrake FCW with autobrake lane departure warning side-view assist(blind spot)
all severities injury statistically significant
2019 TOP SAFETY PICK requirements
G Good ratings in the driver-side small overlap front, moderate overlap front,
side, roof strength and head restraint tests
or rating for front crash prevention
G Good rating in the passenger-side small overlap front test
G Good headlight rating
G Good ratings in the driver-side small overlap front, moderate
overlap front, side, roof strength and head restraint tests
or rating for front crash prevention
G Acceptable or good rating in the passenger-side small overlap front testA
G Acceptable or good headlight ratingA
20 automakers have committedto make AEB a standard feature by
September 2022
99+% ofU.S. market
Front crash prevention ratings2013 – 19 models, as of July 2019
10 1933
64
101
134
154
11
28
44
48
41
24
14
40
53
62
57
59
44
34
142
116
85
6144
26 17
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Pedestrian AEB
U.S. pedestrian fatalities
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2016
46%
Subaru EyeSight and pedestrians
HLDI Analysis:
Pedestrian-related insurance
claims reduced by 35 percent
Pedestrian test scenarios
Adult walking from the right side25 mph condition
Child running from the right side12 mph condition
Pedestrian ratingsSmall SUVs
Rear AEB
Benefit of rear autobrake
Rear crash prevention ratings
Rear parking sensors
Rear cross traffic alert
Rear autobrake
reversing car-to-car, 16” overlap reversing car-to-car, 45° angle
reversing car-to-car, 10° angle reversing toward fixed pole
What’s next for AEB?
Not all rear-end crashes are the same
Vehicles with AEB are overrepresented in some types of rear-end crashes (model results)Percent increase in likelihood that crash involved a vehicle with AEB
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
striking vehicleturning, changing lanes,
passing, merging
struck vehicleturning, changing lanes,
passing, merging
struck vehiclenot a passenger vehicle
or special use(vs. car)
snowy or icy road(vs. dry)
speed limit 70+(vs. 40-45)
relative to same model controls
relative to same class controls
Not all rear-end crashes are the same
Unrealized benefits
Status of crash avoidance systemsPercent with system on: mean values and value range
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
front crash prevention lane departure warning
23 – 77
87 – 98
Predicted registered vehicles by feature by calendar year
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
autobrake adaptiveheadlights
blind spotwarning
lanedeparturewarning
parkingsensors
rearviewcamera
2018
2023
2028
2033
2038
Understanding Level 2
Functional performance and user experience
2017 BMW 5 series
with Driving
Assistant Plus
2017 Mercedes
E-Class with
Drive Pilot
2016 Tesla Model S
with Autopilot
software ver. 7.1
2018 Volvo S90
with Pilot Assist
2018 Tesla Model 3
with Autopilot
software ver. 8.1
Lane keeping in curves
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
BMW 5 seriesn=16
Volvo S90n=17
Mercedes E-Classn=17
Tesla Model Sn=18
Tesla Model 3n=18
disengaged
crossed lane line
on lane line
remained in lane
Lane keeping on hills
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
BMW 5 seriesn=14
Tesla Model Sn=18
Volvo S90 n=17
Mercedes E-Classn=18
Tesla Model 3n=18
disengaged
crossed lane line
on lane line
remained in lane
Adaptive cruise control trusted more than active lane keepingPercentage of drivers who agreed or strongly agreed
0
20
40
60
80
100
Tesla Model SAutopilot
Volvo S90Pilot Assist
BMW 5 seriesDriving Assistant
Plus
Infiniti QX50ProPilot Assist
Mercedes E-ClassDrive Pilot
I trust the automation to maintain speed and distance to vehicle ahead
I trust the automation to keep me in center of lane
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IIHS
Thank you!
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