Produced for Valley agents through the sponsorship and cooperation of PSRAR and CDAR by Market Watch LLC
©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
$416,500$427,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000Median Price
Coachella Valley Median Detached Home Price June 2002 - June 2019
CV Detached Median Price 4% Growth Curve
Summary
The Valley's median detached home price in June was $427,000, which is 2.5% above a year ago. It’s clear from the chart that June usually
begins a few months of price give back as we enter the hot summer months. The attached home price index for the Valley ended June at
$292,500, which is a year-over-year gain of 4.8%. On a city by city basis we continue to see strong 12 month price increases for detached
homes in eight of the nine regional cities. Indian Wells and La Quinta both show double-digit gains. Palm Springs ended June with the median
detached home price of $669,500, which is now 11.6% above the all-time high made during the bubble years of 2007. Short-term, three month
measurements of sales are finally showing signs of leveling off after a year of 10% declines. Total sales in the Valley are averaging 980 units
a month compared to 1039 a year ago, which is off only 5%. Inventory on July 1st was 3,010 units, 28 units less than July 1st of last year. On
July 1st the “months of sales” ratio, which is inventory divided by the average sales rate over 12 months, was 3.8 months. This is mere .2of
a month more than the ratio a year ago, caused primarily by the decline in sales over the last year. In the Valley any ratio under four months
is near low numbers historically. Days on the market at 66 days is almost identical to what it was a year ago.
Produced for Valley agents through the sponsorship and cooperation of PSRAR and CDAR by Market Watch LLC
©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
$279,000
$292,500
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Median PriceCoachella Valley Median Attached Price
June 2002 - June 2019
CV Median Attached Price 3% Growth Curve
Coachella Valley Attached Median Price
The attached home price index for the Valley ended June at $292,500, which is a year-over-year gain of 4.8%. It's clear
from the chart that historically the median attached home price has a very seasonal pattern. For the last nine years it
has invariably reached its seasonal peak in June, followed by four months of price giveback. We expect this pattern to
continue again this year. What is important is how much of a giveback occurs. We are expecting mild numbers similar
to last year.
Produced for Valley agents through the sponsorship and cooperation of PSRAR and CDAR by Market Watch LLC
©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
City Jun-19 Year Ago12 mo
change2011 Low
Gain off
2011 Low2006 High
% from
High
Indian Wells $1,200,000 $1,072,500 11.9% $540,000 122.2% $1,205,000 -0.4%
La Quinta $575,000 $514,000 11.9% $245,000 134.7% $682,020 -15.7%
Cathedral City $340,000 $323,500 5.1% $139,000 144.6% $395,000 -13.9%
City of Coachella $262,000 $250,000 4.8% $121,950 114.8% $335,000 -21.8%
Palm Springs $669,500 $649,125 3.1% $335,000 99.9% $600,000 11.6%
Desert Hot Springs $225,750 $219,900 2.7% $85,000 165.6% $295,000 -23.5%
Rancho Mirage $723,000 $710,000 1.8% $423,000 70.9% $950,000 -23.9%
Indio $330,600 $328,250 0.7% $158,500 108.6% $380,500 -13.1%
Palm Desert $413,500 $449,250 -8.0% $287,000 44.1% $543,000 -23.8%
Detached Homes
John O'Rourke:
Test figures are
derived by using the
offset large table at
the top. The highs
and lows are always
the same from 2006
and 2011 figures.
Then these unsorted
figures are sorted into
the table below and
pasted by value and
the color coding is
changed to reflect
positive or negative
change.
City Jun-19 Year Ago12 Month
Change2011 Low
Gain off 2011
Low2006 High
% from
High
La Quinta $388,500 $351,000 10.7% $265,000 46.6% $532,500 -27.0%
Indian Wells $430,000 $399,500 7.6% $321,500 33.7% $557,500 -22.9%
Palm Desert $308,250 $290,000 6.3% $175,000 76.1% $410,000 -24.8%
Cathedral City $206,000 $199,000 3.5% $107,500 91.6% $270,500 -23.8%
Palm Springs $264,000 $250,000 5.6% $150,000 76.0% $350,000 -24.6%
Rancho Mirage $370,000 $379,500 -2.5% $260,000 42.3% $510,000 -27.5%
Indio $199,000 $217,000 -8.3% $75,000 165.3% $279,000 -28.7%
Desert Hot Springs $150,000 $205,000 -26.8% $86,000 74.4% $303,000 -50.5%
City of Coachella N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Attached Homes
12 Month Change in City Median Prices
On a city by city basis we continue to see strong 12 month price increases for detached homes in eight of the nine regional
cities. Indian Wells and La Quinta both show double-digit gains. Palm Springs ended June with a median detached home price
of $669,500, which is now 11.6% above the all-time high made during the bubble years of 2007. Palm Desert, down 8%, is the
only city with a year-over-year negative change. In the attached market five cities have positive year-over-year gains while three
– Rancho Mirage, Indio and Desert Hot Springs – have negative returns.
Produced for Valley agents through the sponsorship and cooperation of PSRAR and CDAR by Market Watch LLC
©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
1,039980
381334
658 646
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Un
its
pe
r m
on
th
Detached, Attached and Total Sales3 month moving average
Total Sales Attached Sales Detached Sales
Monthly Sales – 3-month trailing avg.
Short-term, three month sales are finally showing signs of leveling off after one year of consistent 10% declines. Total
sales in the Valley are averaging 980 units a month compared to 1,039 a year ago, which is down 5%. Detached sales are
off 2% while attached sales are off 12%. This slowdown in the decline of sales means that longer-term sales metrics will
also begin to level off. The surge in total sales since February, which brought all this about, is the strongest we've seen
in the last five years.
Produced for Valley agents through the sponsorship and cooperation of PSRAR and CDAR by Market Watch LLC
©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
843795
302272
541 523
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Un
its
pe
r M
on
th
Detached, Attached and Total Sales12 month moving average
Total Sales Atttached Sales Detached Sales
Monthly Sales – 12-month trailing avg.
Total sales over the last 12 months have average 795 units a month, which is off 5.7% from June of last year. Of this total,
detached sales are off 3.3% while attached sales are off 10%. We expect long-term total sales to stay around 800 units a
month for the remainder of this year. Although down from peak levels a year ago, this number of sales is still near historic
highs of the last 10 years.
Produced for Valley agents through the sponsorship and cooperation of PSRAR and CDAR by Market Watch LLC
©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
14
82
12
57
27
126
145
224
202
89
316
77
18
54
37
131
156
233
213
97
7
0
50
100
150
200
250
BERMUDADUNES
CATHEDRALCITY
COACHELLA DESERTHOT
SPRINGS
INDIANWELLS
INDIO LA QUINTA PALMDESERT
PALMSPRINGS
RANCHOMIRAGE
THOUSANDPALMS
Un
its
Home Sales by City 3 month avg sales
June 2019 Year Ago
Home Sales per month by City
Of 11 cities in the Valley, all but two show lower three months sales when compared to last year. The two cities with higher
three month sales are Cathedral City with 82 units versus 77 a year ago, and Desert Hot Springs, with 57 units compared
to 54 a year ago. Only one city stands out with significantly lower sales versus a year ago – Indian Wells. All the others are
off from 3% to 8%.
Produced for Valley agents through the sponsorship and cooperation of PSRAR and CDAR by Market Watch LLC
©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
105
223217
138
84
5344
21 16
78
124
253239
128
75
60
3426
16
83
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
< $200K $200-300K $300-400K $400-500K $500-600K $600-700K $700-800K $800-900K $900-1M >$1M
Un
its
pe
r M
on
th
Home Sales by Price Range3 mos avg
Avg Sales Last Three Months Same Time Last Year
Home Sales by Price Range
When we break down the sales by price bracket, we discover the primary drop in sales are for homes priced under $400,000.
This is due to the dwindling supply of homes in this price range as home prices increased. In the $200,000 to $300,000 price
bracket, sales are off 11.8%. In the $300,000 to $400,000 price bracket, sales fell from 239 units down to 217. Sales of homes
priced over $1 million are off 6% from last year.
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©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
3,384
4,058 4,235
3,672
3,0383,010
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
U
n
i
t
s
Valley Housing InventoryJuly 1st 2014 to July 1st 2019
Coachella Valley Inventory
Inventory on July 1 was 3,010 units, 28 units less than July 1st of last year. It is clear from the chart that inventory has a
very seasonal pattern, reaching peaks usually in the month of March and hitting lows sometime in September or October.
We've indicated on the chart the July 1st readings all the way back to 2014 and it's clear that current inventory levels are
the lowest in the last five years.
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©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
65.5 66
5.86.1
4.6
3.6 3.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19
Mo
nth
s
Da
ys
Days on the Market & Months of SalesJuly 1st 2014 - July 1st 2019
DOM Months of Sales
“Days on the Market” and “Months of Sales”
On July 1st the “months of sales” ratio, which is inventory divided by the average sales rate over 12 months, was 3.8 months.
This is mere 2/10 of a month more than the ratio a year ago, caused primarily by the decline in sales. In the Valley any ratio
under four months is near historically low numbers. As can be seen in the graph this ratio is also very seasonal but it is clear
to see that the current ratio is a very positive indicator. Days on the market at 66 days is almost identical to what it was a
year ago.
Produced for Valley agents through the sponsorship and cooperation of PSRAR and CDAR by Market Watch LLC
©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
1.82.3
3.33.9
5.04.4
4.9
6.2
7.4
10.0
1.92.2
3.0
3.6
4.7 4.6
6.2
7.37.0
10.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
< $200K $200-300K $300-400K $400-500K $500-600K $600-700K $700-800K $800-900K $900-1M >$1M
Mo
nth
s
"Months of Sales" by Price Range uses avg. twelve month sales
July 1st, 2019 'Last Year
“Months of Sales” by Price Range
When we look at the “months of sales” ratio in the different price brackets, we see that the ratios for homes priced under
$600,000 are slightly higher than they were a year ago. It's only when we get to homes priced over $700,000 that we begin
to see lower numbers. The month of sales ratio for homes over $1 million at 10 months is effectively equal to what it was a
year ago.
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©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
2.22.4
3.0 3.1 3.13.5 3.6
4.24.7
5.7
8.3
2.42.7 2.8
4.5
3.23.4 3.4
3.7
4.9
4.4
6.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
CATHEDRALCITY
COACHELLA INDIO THOUSANDPALMS
PALMSPRINGS
PALMDESERT
BERMUDADUNES
DESERT HOTSPRINGS
LA QUINTA RANCHOMIRAGE
INDIANWELLS
M
o
n
t
h
s
"Months of Sales" by Citycity inventory divided by average twelve month sales
July 1st, 2019 Year Ago
“Months of Sales” by City
The above graph shows the “month of sales” ratio for eleven Valley cities against the ratio a year ago, ranked lowest to
highest. Five cities – Cathedral City, Coachella, Thousand Palms, Palm Springs and La Quinta – have lower ratios when
compared to a year ago. The two high-priced cities of Rancho Mirage and Indian Wells show measurably higher ratios
when compared to last year. However, no ratio is at worrisome levels.
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©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
-2.1% -2.0%
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
14-Jun 14-Dec 15-Jun 15-Dec 16-Jun 16-Dec 17-Jun 17-Dec 18-Jun 18-Dec 19-Jun
Sales Price Discount from List June 2014 to June 2019
Sale Price Discount from List
The latest “Sale Price Discount from List” is -2.0%, which is .1% less than a year ago. This ratio means the average home listed
for $400,000 sold for $392,000, or a $8,000 price discount.
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©2019 CDAR & PSRAR. All rights reserved. Use and distribution by members only.
The Desert Housing Report June 2019
Explanation and Description of Market Watch’s Graphs and Calculations
Prices: Except for our attached price index, all city and regional median prices are for single family detached homes only. All prices are the median value
for all transactions over the last three months (except for Indian Wells, which is twelve months due to the small number of monthly sales). For example,
the median price for the month of May will be the median value of all sales in March, April and May of detached homes. This longer time period reduces
the amount of wide and meaningless variation that one gets taking only the last month’s transactions and provides more reliable information. While we do
show the median selling price in our city reports, we try to emphasize the median price per sq. ft. in both these and our regional reports. For technical
reasons this metric is more reliable than median price and presents us and the reader with fewer statistical anomalies and variations.
Sales: Sales numbers are the sum of both attached and detached home sales. We present two sales numbers – three-month average of sales and twelve-
month averages. The three-month average measures and shows the seasonal variations of the region. These three-month averages should only be
compared against the same three months of previous years. For example, one should never compare three-month sales in spring to that of the fall. The
twelve-month average takes out all seasonality and is very useful when trying to assess the long-term growth or contraction of sales in the region and at
the city level.
Inventory and Months of Sales: When we provide a monthly report for, say, the month of May, all sales and pricing are done using transactions throughout
that month and the previous two months. However, when we measure inventory at the end of May, it’s the inventory as of June 1st the next month. It is the
sum of inventory of both attached and detached homes. Remember sales and prices are accumulative while inventory is a momentary snapshot of
inventory on a specific date. To avoid confusion, the inventory reported in the May report is for June 1st, and our graphs and charts for inventory and
months of sales will give this date and not the date of the month of the report.
When calculating “months of sales” we almost always use average sales over the last twelve months and not three months. If we do use three months,
we will indicate that we are dividing inventory by three month sales and not the normal twelve month average.
Days on the Market and Sale Price Discount from List Price: These calculations are also the median value of the metrics reported from the MLS listing
and are calculated over the last three months of transactions like price and sales. This is done to help reduce random variation and movements.
Call Out Numbers: The two numbers inserted in the charts are the most recent value(s) and the value(s) one year ago. Each number is connected to the
point on the chart it refers to by a small thin line.
Scatter Diagram Value Curve: In the individual city reports we provide a Scatter Diagram Value Curve which plots the price per sq. ft. of every sale for
the last three months versus the square feet of that home. In the graph each small blue circle represents a sale. Then a best fit linear line is calculated
through those points using the least square method to arrive at the value curve. The value curve represents the price per sq. ft. that the market is generally
giving different size homes. We provide the actual linear equation for people who might want to use it to calculate prices for different sized homes.
To contact Market Watch call Vic Cooper at 949-493-1665
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